Variable setup with random numbers and friendly robber in arena is back

[Jontia]

its interesting, I use to be a pretty competitive Catan player, but was never interested in playing set numbers. Don't think I have don't it since my first game

“Variable” is the traditional spiral setup, not set numbers. “Random” is a chaotic version where it’s allowed to have the same numbers adjacent to each other (except 6 and 8). Last season was Variable (good) and now we are back to Random (not good).

Sorry about that. I tend to think of that as variable terrain. The numbers shifting only around where the desert lands. Calling it variable numbers, when there is a set up that varies the order of the numbers never fits for me.

[Slartibartfst]

its interesting, I use to be a pretty competitive Catan player, but was never interested in playing set numbers. Don't think I have don't it since my first game

“Variable” is the traditional spiral setup, not set numbers. “Random” is a chaotic version where it’s allowed to have the same numbers adjacent to each other (except 6 and 8). Last season was Variable (good) and now we are back to Random (not good).

oh okay, that seems kinda stupid then lol

[jpfranchet]

The so-called gurus have got it wrong every time. I’ve complained about this many times, and I have refused to play in Arena for years. Each new season, they make it worse. I agree that last season was a step forward, but it’s now the worst possible combo again.

Apart from the first few weeks the game was live, Arena Catan has ALWAYS been 3-player. This is profoundly stupid. They haven’t changed it once, not even for a bit of variety. Every official tournament I’ve played in for 25+ years has been 4-player. And it’s never been Friendly Robber, which is a variant designed for families and new players. “Easy start” is occasionally used in tournaments, but not normally. Sometimes the number setup is “random”, but it’s usually the “variable” spiral because it’s known to be better balanced. So the BGA gurus are triple-wrong.

When it becomes a serious setup, either with 4p, or by adding Cities & Knights, then I will play in Arena, but not before. You might also attract other serious players who currently seem to enjoy Colonist. Until then, it will remain a random dice fest that no one could be proud to win.

This seems like a good time to move to colonist where people understand how to play and where the board will be playable for everyone.

[Shivaware]

...

Note, the probability of five consecutive rolls of 2 is 1/36^5 = 1/60466176.

It looks like there have been fewer than 6.2 million games of Catan played at BGA, so that's only about a 10% chance of that happening to anyone here so far.

60 seems like a decent estimate for a typical number of rolls in a Catan game, so the probability per game would be closer to one in a million.

Oops, thanks for catching my huge blunder!

[Karaboudjan]

I agree, last season was a step forward. Now that stupid "friendly robber" again, ruining the game. And the "pure luck numbers". So (another) season where I will avoid CATAN. So bad...

[Mathew5000]

I even had one not long ago, but was 8/8/6. 8s were wheat and ore, 6 was sheep.

Please provide the link so that a bug report can be made. The variable-with-random setup is not supposed to have any intersection with more than one 6/8.

Just checked the odds. Odds of FIVE 2's being rolled consecutively is just over 1:67M

How did you calculate that? I get a probability of one over 60.5 million. But that's the probability of your next five rolls all being two. The probability of having a string of five twos at some point in the game of course is higher.

[Kaladry]

I don't care about the variable set up. I'm more annoyed at the Friendly Robber setting because it just feels like pandering to all the annoying players who demanded it in Arena last season even though it wasn't an Arena rule. I don't mind the rule itself, I find it just makes a boring game.

[Coleus1]

First pick so far has been very OP. Also, friendly robber is unfair if it isn't also considering amount of development card one is buying or using.

[jpfranchet]

First pick so far has been very OP. Also, friendly robber is unfair if it isn't also considering amount of development card one is buying or using.

Exactly, and that's part of my point. That’s why first pick is generally OP. if there’s a strong ore-wheat-sheep spot, you can stack up dev cards as long as you want without getting robbed. And that’s also why no serious Catan competition uses the friendly robber rule (3-player matches do happen in tournaments under certain conditions). Any semi-experienced Catan player will agree that hybrid OWS setups are the strongest in the game even when the robber in enabled early.

[Parténope y Ulises]

totally agree