I'm not a native Eng speaker so there may be many typos in my article, sorry for them.
I think I am not good enough in this game with only 180~230 Elo scores in average (highest 290), but I feel at ease about it because I think it's already what we can get in this game.
As you all know, this game is based on luck. But skills are still useful. Luck helps you win. Luck makes you lose. Skills help you keep your leading position. Skill helps you struggle when you're going to lose.
1) 30% is already risky
Recite: To a X=1 in your hand, it's X%. To a X=2, 3, 4, 5 in your hand, it's (X+1)%. To a X=6, 7, 8 in your hand, it's (X+2)%. To a 9, 10, 11, 12 in your hand, it's (X+3)%.
What probability? The probability to bust. It's only a rough estimation but already enough in regular game, better than calculate every card in the discard piles.
E.g. If you have a 12 and 5 in your hand, then you have 12+3+5+1=22% to bust if you draw another card.
You might say, "Hey there are five 12 drew by players so the bust probability of a hand of 12 and 5 might decrease." No. The deck is evenly decreasing, so when half of 12 is used, so would be other cards. And when the bust% of 12 decrease, the bust% of 5 increase. So just use the data as what they look like and don't change them.
If you draw a card when you already have 33% probability to bust, it means you would lose a round in every 3 round. That's not how we win this game. The game is about getting scores steadily in every round, not take unnecessary risks, especially when you're take leading. Let's keep the probability under 30% in most situation. Only if you're thrown away by more than 20 pts, you can risk a 35% once or twice, but don't risk 40% unless it's already the last round.
In fact, there are many situations you stay at 22%~30% with 17~21 pts. When you are take leading (it means you are not the one should take risk). When you have x2 / +10 in your hand. When you have 11+12 in your hand and you don't want to receive a random flip-3. Any time when you simply don't want to bust, being pulled down with those who behind you. Again, this game is about getting scores steadily.
2) If you play for Elo scores, attack the correct person
In current Elo system, attacking a 1st place player with 60+ pts ahead of you is nothing good for you, only helps the 2nd place player. You need pay more attentions on the players having a place near you.
Don't freeze those too far away from you. Don't freeze those would stay by themselves. Better not to freeze those already has a card bigger than 8 in their hand, it won't hurt. Freeze those who has a bigger "space" of probability in their hand, e.g. with a small number, or only +2~+10 card. This is even important in the first round. I don't know why new players love freezing a player already having 12 in their hand. If you do so, this freezing card is only "50% effective" because they would automatically stay when it's 10+12 or 11+12. Freeze those who don't have cards in their hand at all.
Flip-3 is as risky as you seen. Even you don't have any cards in your hand, you have 27% to bust when you use it on yourself (ignoring special cards). But sometimes your opponents are just so ... lucky. So when you don't want to use on yourself, don't use them on your "straight opponent" with a score near you, because you have a chance to help them. You'd rather help those who won't influence your current place. If you really want to use it to attack, calculate their bust% before that, counting their 10/11/12 in their hand. And, never forget they are grim reaper in the deck. Stay when you already have 200+ enough pts to finish the game, even with a "second chance" card, don't risk randomly drawing a flip-3 in this situation.
Give a second second-chance to those who are not straight opponents. If you really have to solve a trolley problem, give it to one already has nearly 30% in their hand (e.g. 11+12). They have a higher probability to waste it.
3) Go ahead continuously with the 1st place player, but better not to be the 1st place player
In my first turn, I usually stay when I already have 17+ pts, even it's only 22% to bust, I won't go to the next card. Because I want to be ahead of unlucky players who bust in the first round with nearly 20 pts, makes them a little suffer to chase be, but also not to be the 1st player.
In early phase of the game, the 1st place is nothing but only getting every freezing card to your place. Nothing good at all. You can play the game very safe with a little paces after them, but better not to be them unless you're truly lucky. Sometimes the 3rd player (even the 4th player) has a lucky draw of 10+11+12 to overtake you, but even in those situation you don't need to be nervous. What you really need is not to bust. If you bust, then you're truly shaked off and hard to re-overtake. Don't risk "a firm 4th place" to overtake anyone. Just go ahead, go ahead, go ahead in every round. Don't think like, "Since they all bust, it's okay for me bust too so let me draw one more card." No. Stay with 20 pts, then you go ahead again.
Sorry it's too hard for me to explain some mechanics of this article (e.g. why are those probabilities?), so I simply give up. And there are more details of specific strategies but I find it's too trivial so I don't write them. Hope it would help you!
I think I am not good enough in this game with only 180~230 Elo scores in average (highest 290), but I feel at ease about it because I think it's already what we can get in this game.
As you all know, this game is based on luck. But skills are still useful. Luck helps you win. Luck makes you lose. Skills help you keep your leading position. Skill helps you struggle when you're going to lose.
1) 30% is already risky
Recite: To a X=1 in your hand, it's X%. To a X=2, 3, 4, 5 in your hand, it's (X+1)%. To a X=6, 7, 8 in your hand, it's (X+2)%. To a 9, 10, 11, 12 in your hand, it's (X+3)%.
What probability? The probability to bust. It's only a rough estimation but already enough in regular game, better than calculate every card in the discard piles.
E.g. If you have a 12 and 5 in your hand, then you have 12+3+5+1=22% to bust if you draw another card.
You might say, "Hey there are five 12 drew by players so the bust probability of a hand of 12 and 5 might decrease." No. The deck is evenly decreasing, so when half of 12 is used, so would be other cards. And when the bust% of 12 decrease, the bust% of 5 increase. So just use the data as what they look like and don't change them.
If you draw a card when you already have 33% probability to bust, it means you would lose a round in every 3 round. That's not how we win this game. The game is about getting scores steadily in every round, not take unnecessary risks, especially when you're take leading. Let's keep the probability under 30% in most situation. Only if you're thrown away by more than 20 pts, you can risk a 35% once or twice, but don't risk 40% unless it's already the last round.
In fact, there are many situations you stay at 22%~30% with 17~21 pts. When you are take leading (it means you are not the one should take risk). When you have x2 / +10 in your hand. When you have 11+12 in your hand and you don't want to receive a random flip-3. Any time when you simply don't want to bust, being pulled down with those who behind you. Again, this game is about getting scores steadily.
2) If you play for Elo scores, attack the correct person
In current Elo system, attacking a 1st place player with 60+ pts ahead of you is nothing good for you, only helps the 2nd place player. You need pay more attentions on the players having a place near you.
Don't freeze those too far away from you. Don't freeze those would stay by themselves. Better not to freeze those already has a card bigger than 8 in their hand, it won't hurt. Freeze those who has a bigger "space" of probability in their hand, e.g. with a small number, or only +2~+10 card. This is even important in the first round. I don't know why new players love freezing a player already having 12 in their hand. If you do so, this freezing card is only "50% effective" because they would automatically stay when it's 10+12 or 11+12. Freeze those who don't have cards in their hand at all.
Flip-3 is as risky as you seen. Even you don't have any cards in your hand, you have 27% to bust when you use it on yourself (ignoring special cards). But sometimes your opponents are just so ... lucky. So when you don't want to use on yourself, don't use them on your "straight opponent" with a score near you, because you have a chance to help them. You'd rather help those who won't influence your current place. If you really want to use it to attack, calculate their bust% before that, counting their 10/11/12 in their hand. And, never forget they are grim reaper in the deck. Stay when you already have 200+ enough pts to finish the game, even with a "second chance" card, don't risk randomly drawing a flip-3 in this situation.
Give a second second-chance to those who are not straight opponents. If you really have to solve a trolley problem, give it to one already has nearly 30% in their hand (e.g. 11+12). They have a higher probability to waste it.
3) Go ahead continuously with the 1st place player, but better not to be the 1st place player
In my first turn, I usually stay when I already have 17+ pts, even it's only 22% to bust, I won't go to the next card. Because I want to be ahead of unlucky players who bust in the first round with nearly 20 pts, makes them a little suffer to chase be, but also not to be the 1st player.
In early phase of the game, the 1st place is nothing but only getting every freezing card to your place. Nothing good at all. You can play the game very safe with a little paces after them, but better not to be them unless you're truly lucky. Sometimes the 3rd player (even the 4th player) has a lucky draw of 10+11+12 to overtake you, but even in those situation you don't need to be nervous. What you really need is not to bust. If you bust, then you're truly shaked off and hard to re-overtake. Don't risk "a firm 4th place" to overtake anyone. Just go ahead, go ahead, go ahead in every round. Don't think like, "Since they all bust, it's okay for me bust too so let me draw one more card." No. Stay with 20 pts, then you go ahead again.
Sorry it's too hard for me to explain some mechanics of this article (e.g. why are those probabilities?), so I simply give up. And there are more details of specific strategies but I find it's too trivial so I don't write them. Hope it would help you!
