Game IS broken ... Player wins in 2 moves!!!

[Jellby]

Yes, with experience you learn how to roll the dice properly.

[AdsonMelk]

Extremely difficult does not equal impossible!

Just finished a game where my opponent finished in one turn with 4,6,8 from nothing to victory.
Not in the the first round though, but still crazy lucky. Would have never expected to see something like this.

[Romain672]

Just finished a game where my opponent finished in one turn with 4,6,8 from nothing to victory.
Not in the the first round though, but still crazy lucky. Would have never expected to see something like this.

I was curious he did it in 25 rolls.
I will remove the two first and the last two that I will do at the end.
So we got 21 rolls.
From that site: https://www.taterenner.com/cantstop.php you got a probability to continue of 91%.

Then we got 4/8 columns (75%)
And finally 8 (56%).

So (0.91)^21*0.75*0.56=5.8%!

One chance out of 17 .
So yeah with the good numbers, that's pretty likely, or at least it's not too uncommon.


But that surprise me too. First that 4/6/8 is really close to the usual 6/7/8 (evens numbers look really good). And secondly that going for 3 stacks here does not need astronomical luck.

[jerjerjaii]

That's why this game got 4 out of 5 luck rating

[ribidilus]

Some people have even published papers about the subject, there is something about the Rule 28 which is an interesting read.

What do you mean with Rule 28?

[RicardoRix]

https://boardgamearena.com/doc/Tips_cantstop

[ribidilus]

So I made the effort to use BGA Studio and the same php random functions that are available to all developers that create games on this site, running test code on the same servers.

500,000 samples of each function:

As some developers point to this post, so i'd like to add a situation where implementation of the rand function or real bugs is behind it (instead of human bias): https://boardgamearena.com/bug?id=67415

[ufm]

In short, if the randomizer or the game itself truly has a serious issue, there should be a recognizable symptom as well.
Actually there was one such incident in Can't Stop, but it has been fixed years ago.

[eloquent-kangaroo729]

I can only cry in envy at all the fearless guys who push their luck like crazy, sometimes even when 1 marker already at #12... Wish, I could do the same but I know that I have moderate below average luck, with dices especially. True for Settlers of Catan as well. 8/10 of me rolling a 7, whenever my resources are > 8.

So, should I try to go all the way with 6,7,8? How should I pick the distribution? Even, arrow or left/right bias?

[RicardoRix]

I can only cry in envy at all the fearless guys who push their luck like crazy, sometimes even when 1 marker already at #12... Wish, I could do the same but I know that I have moderate below average luck, with dices especially. True for Settlers of Catan as well. 8/10 of me rolling a 7, whenever my resources are > 8.

So, should I try to go all the way with 6,7,8? How should I pick the distribution? Even, arrow or left/right bias?

do you think the dice know who you are when you pick them up?