Luck is definitely > 3

[BurntBoards]

There is actually an objective way to measure luck, just look at the winning scores in a season of Arena. Even though tile draws count for a lot at times, the best players at Azul can get to 2100, so luck for that game is fairly low. 7 wonders duel has winning scores more like 1900, so there is more luck there. For Flip 7, 1700 can win a season, so it is obvious that luck is extremely high relative to those other games.

You are also forgetting that popularity of a game can skew thos numbers quite a bit

How so?

The more people who play the more games you can get. You wont always find a game easy and your numbers might be lower.

[Meeplelowda]

You are also forgetting that popularity of a game can skew thos numbers quite a bit

How so?

The more people who play the more games you can get. You wont always find a game easy and your numbers might be lower.

Yes, but you don't get to very high AES simply because a game is popular. The more games you play, the more games you can lose as well. It goes both ways. The variance of a game inversely correlates with the how populated the highest AES echelons are.

But instead of looking at AES in Arena, it's better to look at something that doesn't reset every three months, like the highest current Elo for a game. Low variance games have Elos in the 800s+. High variance (i.e., high luck-based) games max out in the mid 400s.

[ChiefPointThief]

There is too much strategy and decision making for this to be level 5 luck. Luck 5 is basically roll of the dice. The built in king making aspect (6 sab cards along w/ no 2p option) enhances the luck element but idk if that is supposed to be accounted for when giving a luck rating.

Popularity of a game can definitely help with elo. If sobek 2p was as popular as azul I could certainly reach master status. There isn’t enough overall players/elo within the community to accomplish that. Once a game gets their community of players there’s no new elo coming in only being taken out w/ things like expels, making players lose elo at end of arena season, & elo was leaking when bga modified rankings w/ the whole consecutive loss thing.

[DoctorFianchetto]

Minimum luck rating 4 but I'd be inclined to put it at 5, just because a 4.5 isn't available.