Lukov wrote: ↑07 February 2026, 13:42
There is so much randomness and lack of balance in both wonder composition (as a solo wonder) and lineups (which wonder is paired next to who) along with the cards you get that any actual competitive play is a joke. Put players of the same skill together and cards will be a decisive factor 8/10 times.
Certainly, the outcome isn't as strongly dependent on skill differences as games like, for example, chess. If a game needs to be similar to chess to meet the definition of "competative play" then I aggree with Lukov. But a game that allows for a player (Lukov) to beat 86% of opponents ("win percentage") over 4,260 games has outcomes that I perceive as considerably more skill-dependent than luck-dependent.
More specifically, if my thinking is correct, in a hypothetical game in which outcomes are maximally SKILL-dependent the best player would have a win percentage approching 100% over the long run (i.e., large sample size). in a hypothetical game in which outcomes are maximally LUCK-dependent the best player would have a win percentage approching 50% over the long run.
Here's where in not sure my logic is correct. . .
Doesn't it stand to reason that it can be determined a game's outcome are more skill-dependent than luck-dependent if the most skilled players can maintain a win% > 75% over the long run?
Drawing some evidence from a game that has quality differences in strategy but outcomes most strongly dependent on luck, currently the top 5 players in Can't Stop ELO (all-time) with over 1,000 games played have win percentages of:
- 64%, 63%, 60%, 53%, 54%
- Dzz, Uhtred_Stark, Marco8435, Lasalve, Pyty001