Dice generator - the non-conspiracy take

[Romain672]

I hope rest of you have noticed this as well

And yet nobody else noticed it.

[Theana]

@Theana: Do these numbers feel right to you? Would you have guessed that there is a 1.43% chance of getting three same sums if you roll the Catan dice three times? Does it feel right that a 3-fold repetition should happen on average once a game? I would be very happy if your (very natural!) feeling was that it should occur less often. Because then it would explain why you felt the situation 7-7-7 as weird - and our discussion could lead to a satisfying result for both of us!]

Sorry for replying late! I had this crazy idea to start learning linux and try to take a certification and I am practicing almost 24x7. And is the same reason why yes, it makes sense even if it didn't

For clarity, the 7-7-7 per se was not the "issue", I was pointing the pattern and brought up this example to understand the following

Is rolling 7-7-7- of the same number in a row expected? and as you replied, yes it is expected on an average of once a game
What if it is a number less statistically probable, for example 10-10-10?
What if it happens multiple times in a game?
On the other end, if we consider all the tables played daily, everything is probably likely to happen.

I hope something of what I wrote makes sense! thanks for the explanation!

[Deckeon]

Sorry to Rez this thread but after search all of BGA forums this one is the closest to explaining a terrible flaw in random numbers on BGA.

The problem is not the averages or "fairness" or whatever and yes it all evens out, HOWEVER, for many games it does make the game moot. a simple Win/lose at times, so it is damaging.

I think games with multiple 6 "sided" dice are far less affected since the problem is "runs" of same number.

However 111 means you rolled a 2 and at most a 7 on two dice rolls, or 12 and at least a 7 (with 666), so it can be noticeable (and infuriating to prove) in these games.

In GMT games ( Such as Space Empires) however, it is shockingly noticeable. the triple number runs on d10s are GLARINGLY OBVIOUS. Certainly way the hell out of the 1in1000 chance. 111 and 000(101010) are when you really get jarred (particularly if it happens twice or more in a game), however these runs can happen to any of the 10 numbers.

I have no idea why this happens but it is not statistically probable. Not runs of 3s same number in a row, like this, this often. (sometimes 4s of course but I think one of the numbers was a "normal" 1/10).

[Theana]

Sorry to Rez this thread but after search all of BGA forums this one is the closest to explaining a terrible flaw in random numbers on BGA.

The problem is not the averages or "fairness" or whatever and yes it all evens out, HOWEVER, for many games it does make the game moot. a simple Win/lose at times, so it is damaging.

I think games with multiple 6 "sided" dice are far less affected since the problem is "runs" of same number.

However 111 means you rolled a 2 and at most a 7 on two dice rolls, or 12 and at least a 7 (with 666), so it can be noticeable (and infuriating to prove) in these games.

In GMT games ( Such as Space Empires) however, it is shockingly noticeable. the triple number runs on d10s are GLARINGLY OBVIOUS. Certainly way the hell out of the 1in1000 chance. 111 and 000(101010) are when you really get jarred (particularly if it happens twice or more in a game), however these runs can happen to any of the 10 numbers.

I have no idea why this happens but it is not statistically probable. Not runs of 3s same number in a row, like this, this often. (sometimes 4s of course but I think one of the numbers was a "normal" 1/10).

In one game 12 rolled 3 times in a row. I wish I remembered which one it was

[Romain672]

I think games with multiple 6 "sided" dice are far less affected since the problem is "runs" of same number.

If that was the case, after doing statistics, we should still see it.
You think when we check the statistics of one game we only check for the amounts of 2s/3s/4s/7s... But that's not the case, I checked suit of the same numbers since it was a commun complain. And... Nothing 'obvious' was out of that.

But let's forget Catan 2 minutes.

In GMT games ( Such as Space Empires) however, it is shockingly noticeable. the triple number runs on d10s are GLARINGLY OBVIOUS. Certainly way the hell out of the 1in1000 chance. 111 and 000(101010) are when you really get jarred (particularly if it happens twice or more in a game), however these runs can happen to any of the 10 numbers.

I don't know the game, but if you can explain me the randomness from it now, tell me exactly what is wrong with it***, then I (or others) could take your first 10 games of March (and that part is extremely important since it remove most biais), and analyse them.

***your last post could be enough for that: on that claim, I usually take (outside of 2s/3s/11s/12s) the number rolled a number of time furthest from what you would except. And then compare it to the average.

By doing a prediction I force you to not be biaised by the last few games, and I remove biais if you was really (un)lucky in your last few games.
It has the downside of forcing you to tell what is wrong since you could be saying 'something is wrong but I don't know what exactly' but that doesn't seem your case in your last post.

And from the last few times I did that, you should most likely see that everything is fine. And if something is as you said 'obviously wrong', we or the dev will check 100+ games to see what is exactly wrong.

[Gulchen]

There's an issue with such testing: ​ ​ ​ For several of Deckeon's most recent Space Empires games, BGA shows
only the last move of the replay. ​ I have no reason to think BGA would keep them for Deckeon's games in March.

[Romain672]

The logs are enough, in that game: https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=789679655 , you don't have to open the replay, just search for the word 'roll' and it seem you see all the rolls done.

[Deckeon]

There's an issue with such testing: ​ ​ ​ For several of Deckeon's most recent Space Empires games, BGA shows
only the last move of the replay. ​ I have no reason to think BGA would keep them for Deckeon's games in March.

Yes it is tough to get the data I must manually do it.

I'm only going to track triples 111 555 999 000 etc. Should only happen 1/1000 and is easy to notice.

[Gulchen]

The logs are enough, in that game: https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=789679655 , you don't have to open the replay, just search for the word 'roll' and it seem you see all the rolls done.

They work for that game, but what about ​ https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=791229205 ?

[Deckeon]

The logs are enough, in that game: https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=789679655 , you don't have to open the replay, just search for the word 'roll' and it seem you see all the rolls done.

ok thank you - i've never looked through game logs before. This helps I will track doubles too (11 22 33 44 55 etc) as I think this is actually issue with that.

That game:

doubles 7 times (side note and i don't think relevant: 3 times with 11 -in game a 1 is always a hit so this really gets noticed)
no triples this game.

52 rolls.

Seems high no?

I will fire up a bunch of games for march and post results... here? or maybe other thread...maybe both. hahaha