I'm sure premium players get preferential treatment with the dice; in the last few dozen games, almost only the premium players' numbers come up. (playing Catan) It's really annoying. I even wrote down the numbers to be sure. Who programs these dice? Instead of encouraging me to become a premium player, I'm getting really angry at how unfair this is, and what merit is there in winning this way? Please fix this!
Who programmed the dice?
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Re: Who programmed the dice?
I do not believe the algorithm is biased towards premium players, however it is apparent to me that some bias still exists.
What stands out to me is that only on BGA Catan, you can often tell within the first few rolls which player the algorithm seems to favor. It doesn't happen all the games, but when it does it is easily spotted. I play a lot, both online on several sites simultaneous and in real life, and this is something I’ve only noticed on BGA. It's also apparent for other players as this is something often pointed in chat during games "Oh, the algorithm is favoring *colour* this game, gg" and in the end no matter what number placements the player got, he still wins the game.
I’ve also heard similar concerns from experienced players in real-life tournaments, some of which avoid BGA Catan for this reason.
What’s also interesting is that when someone who does not play Catan on here or anywhere else, but with a basic understanding of statistics, tries to analyze and defend this they often conclude that everything looks “normal” from a purely probabilistic standpoint. You could roll a 12 20 times in a game and they would still come up with arguments "well that still can happens the probability is never 0 " etc. The players defending, saying everything looks normal, well looking at their profile the do not play the game much, or even at all.
If this many experienced players are seeing the same pattern, and not just justice basic stats knights then it’s hard not to question whether the randomness is truly unbiased.
What stands out to me is that only on BGA Catan, you can often tell within the first few rolls which player the algorithm seems to favor. It doesn't happen all the games, but when it does it is easily spotted. I play a lot, both online on several sites simultaneous and in real life, and this is something I’ve only noticed on BGA. It's also apparent for other players as this is something often pointed in chat during games "Oh, the algorithm is favoring *colour* this game, gg" and in the end no matter what number placements the player got, he still wins the game.
I’ve also heard similar concerns from experienced players in real-life tournaments, some of which avoid BGA Catan for this reason.
What’s also interesting is that when someone who does not play Catan on here or anywhere else, but with a basic understanding of statistics, tries to analyze and defend this they often conclude that everything looks “normal” from a purely probabilistic standpoint. You could roll a 12 20 times in a game and they would still come up with arguments "well that still can happens the probability is never 0 " etc. The players defending, saying everything looks normal, well looking at their profile the do not play the game much, or even at all.
If this many experienced players are seeing the same pattern, and not just justice basic stats knights then it’s hard not to question whether the randomness is truly unbiased.
Re: Who programmed the dice?
Coleus1 is right.
It’s either a hack or someone is doing it on purpose.
It’s either a hack or someone is doing it on purpose.
Re: Who programmed the dice?
I find it interesting that those who do play a lot of catan and think the game is unfair, do NOT analyze and and run statistics to prove their point.Coleus1 wrote: ↑19 March 2026, 09:09
What’s also interesting is that when someone who does not play Catan on here or anywhere else, but with a basic understanding of statistics, tries to analyze and defend this they often conclude that everything looks “normal” from a purely probabilistic standpoint.
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Re: Who programmed the dice?
>I find it interesting that those who do play a lot of catan and think the game is unfair, do NOT analyze and and run statistics to prove their point.
BGA is the one that holds the statistical data, so it makes no sense to ask players to provide it.
It is nonsensical to ask players—who are customers—to play over a million times just to compile and submit statistical data.
I think it is only natural for the game developers to check the statistical data and the program themselves.
BGA is the one that holds the statistical data, so it makes no sense to ask players to provide it.
It is nonsensical to ask players—who are customers—to play over a million times just to compile and submit statistical data.
I think it is only natural for the game developers to check the statistical data and the program themselves.
Re: Who programmed the dice?
The players are the ones saying there is a problem. And they're saying their own experience is evidence to prove it. So they can just collect the data from their games. You don't need a million games. From the pages I linked above, you only need about 300 rolls to show a reasonable degree of confidence using the statistical process on those pages. That's 6 or so games.Rufasu wrote: ↑19 March 2026, 13:01 >I find it interesting that those who do play a lot of catan and think the game is unfair, do NOT analyze and and run statistics to prove their point.
BGA is the one that holds the statistical data, so it makes no sense to ask players to provide it.
It is nonsensical to ask players—who are customers—to play over a million times just to compile and submit statistical data.
I think it is only natural for the game developers to check the statistical data and the program themselves.
Let's say you're right and there is bias programmed into the BGA dice rolling by the developers to pick winners in Catan games. And then you want to ask the developers to provide you with the data to prove this? What is this villainy 101? "You puny players will never defeat me even after I reveal my plan. Moo HaHa."
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Post was in a different thread. So here it is again.
Good luck; Here's a great write up of the sort of method you'll need to test BGA's catan dice and some tools to help you.
Dice Testing
As covered on the page, you'll need around 300 rolls for a minimum viable test of a d6 I belive. At around 70 rolls a game rough estimate for a base game 4 player catan, you'll need your next four complete games to cover two set assuming you intend to test the red and yellow die individually?
Re: Who programmed the dice?
It’s not good business practice to force customers to do what developers should be doing.
I think you should give some serious thought to roles and responsibilities.
You’ll just end up losing customers.
BGA has statistical data, and using it to improve quality is standard practice.
Besides, if five plays are sufficient, the people expressing dissatisfaction claim to have played over 100 times.
The people here won’t accept that.
They insist that we play about a million times until the law of large numbers applies.
Common sense dictates that customers shouldn’t have to do that—they’ll just stop playing.
As long as you continue to act insincerely, your business won’t succeed.
I think you should give some serious thought to roles and responsibilities.
You’ll just end up losing customers.
BGA has statistical data, and using it to improve quality is standard practice.
Besides, if five plays are sufficient, the people expressing dissatisfaction claim to have played over 100 times.
The people here won’t accept that.
They insist that we play about a million times until the law of large numbers applies.
Common sense dictates that customers shouldn’t have to do that—they’ll just stop playing.
As long as you continue to act insincerely, your business won’t succeed.
Re: Who programmed the dice?
Because they cannot provide any substantial evidence to prove it.
My last game has no 9s is not evidence.
Checkout this one game with three 3s is not evidence.
I'll accept it, if you pull the dice rolls from 6 consecutive games starting from a blank slate (no finding a wonky game as your starting point) collect the rolls and run the analysis.
There is nothing BGA should be doing to improve the randomness of dice rolls because there is no evidence there is anything wrong with the dice rolls.
While it would be awesome if BGA exposed endpoints to give site or game exports of game stats, it's not as if any of the dice conspiracy theorists would believe them anyway.