Dice generator - the non-conspiracy take

[Silene]

The higher the ELO the more rolls a player gets especially when they need it. This game is so obviously rigged with the rolls it is crazy. I don't know how anyone can play more than 5 games and not see it. Why can't they just actually make it random.

...aaand back to the conspiracy take

[Jontia]

The higher the ELO the more rolls a player gets especially when they need it. This game is so obviously rigged with the rolls it is crazy. I don't know how anyone can play more than 5 games and not see it. Why can't they just actually make it random.

...aaand back to the conspiracy take

Just ludicrous. He forgot to include the premium membership factor.

[Deckeon]

Doubt anyone really cares about this reply but I had to cut my game play short ( some health issues)

Basically i can conclude I am wrong about doubles/triples. So much so I might consider the reverse true...

What I do see , like any human, is patterns. Random not random, I don't know. I think it's worth further study. the number patterns like 343434 578578 etc stand out and i still think the random generator is not random, but it doesn't matter as much as i thought it did.

To be revisited maybe. I will run my game logs ( that actually occur in to an AI to count numbers and try to find patterns next time).

The game logs that I could get (it was enough for me):

678rolls total -game 813252920
doubles /////////////////////////////////////////////////////// -55 (significantly under)

trips // -2 (trip1 -1) (WAY under)

181 rolls total - game 815302543
doubles //////// -9 (half under)

trips // (trip1 -0) (under)

40- rolls total -game 816489915
doubles //// (perfect)

Trips -0 (underish)

[euklid314]

Doubt anyone really cares about this reply but I had to cut my game play short ( some health issues)

Basically i can conclude I am wrong about doubles/triples. So much so I might consider the reverse true...

Of course I care because you initially called us forum users to simply trust your feeling because it was so obvious for you. I wanted to reply that you should simply trust me (as a mathematician) - but it is not a matter of trust. You can simply make tests and look at the numbers.

If BGA does use the cryptographically secure PHP function random_int() - see FAQ - and all their tests and those of game developers, made on millions of random calls show the function does what it is supposed to do - one can simply trust BGA.

Whenever a random number is called by some BGA game the function random_int() does not know what the result is used for. When the next number is called in the same game, hundreds of other random numbers will have been generated by the same function and was used in different games. What you see as a double in your game is not a double for the random function at all. There will be hundreds and thousands of random numbers produced inbetween. The function does not care of your ELO, if you attack a space ship or roll a Catan dice. It does not know that the sum 7 has a special effect in a game of Catan or a 1 has a special meaning for your game.

Have fun with further analyzing your dice rolls. You will find lots of interesting patterns to focus on!

[Arjuna92]

If BGA does use the cryptographically secure PHP function random_int() - see FAQ - and all their tests and those of game developers, made on millions of random calls show the function does what it is supposed to do - one can simply trust BGA.

Whenever a random number is called by some BGA game the function random_int() does not know what the result is used for. When the next number is called in the same game, hundreds of other random numbers will have been generated by the same function and was used in different games. What you see as a double in your game is not a double for the random function at all. There will be hundreds and thousands of random numbers produced inbetween. The function does not care of your ELO, if you attack a space ship or roll a Catan dice. It does not know that the sum 7 has a special effect in a game of Catan or a 1 has a special meaning for your game.

Have fun with further analyzing your dice rolls. You will find lots of interesting patterns to focus on!

I think we could just copy and paste this response into all manner of dice conspiracy threads because it so calmly explains the workings of the random number generator. According to the developer FAQ, BGA doesn't approve game modules that use other random functions.

[Name_Taken]

This might be one of those things that people simply can't change each other's minds about, so without getting too invested, there are just two things I'd like to mention here.

The first probably has a scientific name, maybe it's a type of confirmation bias, but I'll call it the Full Moon Effect. On one hand, imagine all the strange things you've noticed happening under a full moon, or on a Friday the 13th, that might make you stop and think, "that's weird..."
And then contrast that with all the times that it was NOT a full moon or Friday the 13th, and you stopped to think to yourself, "nothing weird is happening now". We don't even count those...

The second applies equally to conspiracy theories in general, and it's usually the easiest way to debunk one. In a conspiracy theory, it is simply the total number of people who would have to keep a secret in order for the conspiracy to succeed. And it's always a prohibitively high number. But here, first imagine all the coding required to rig the game. Anything that people can claim is happening intentionally would have to be written in. AND THEN add up all the people who would have to keep it a secret. Even without keeping a secret, that's a lot of work, on a site that has plenty its share of glitching. And what is the benefit? Actually this question I will stick around for. I dunno if I've ever heard an answer for that part of this. All that work, all that sneaky programming, which has ultimately failed ginormously since every Catan site has these conversations, and for what? To trick people into spending money? On an "obviously" rigged game?

[aloof-rabbit]

The higher the ELO the more rolls a player gets especially when they need it. This game is so obviously rigged with the rolls it is crazy. I don't know how anyone can play more than 5 games and not see it. Why can't they just actually make it random.

Do I think dice rolls in some games are completely unrealistic and unlikely? Absolutely.
Do I think it has anything to do with high ELO or premium membership? No.

I just played #852805717 and had the highest ELO going into that game.
6s rolled 28% of the time. I was not on either 6.

[Jontia]

Unrealistic =/= Unlikely.

Unlikely things are realistic.

[Theana]

Sharing a nice table that goes against any statistic or almost! (edit to add; I was not being serious, I don't believe it goes against almost any statistic!

https://boardgamearena.com/8/catan?table=852938486

10 rolled 15% of times and several times during the game, twice in a row

11 9%
12 6%

[Jellby]

A single event (game) cannot go against any statistics... unless you saw a 13 or a 6.5 rolled