Reroll dice mechanics

[zephyrnx]

Has anyone else noticed that rerolling dice is very likely to roll the same number again?

I don't have any hard evidence, but just something I've noticed after many games, that rerolling one die tends to yield the same result. I was wondering if there was potentially any bugs in the code that might cause this?

Maybe I'm just imagining it?

[Charles Marlow]

You are not imagining it. It happens alot, almost as if not random. BGA knows it, that's why they did the april fools joke, because they knew some people would actually believe it. The "random" of dice are not random. Just go look at the years long thread in catan. And yet the addiction of bga makes you play anyways. Some people believe the game picks a winner before it starts. That would be like randomly rolling 4 11s in a row at the end of a game so the guy losing by 27 wins.

[Gulchen]

@ zephyrnx ​ :



I have looked through

3 of your game logs
and
part of one of your replays

, ​ and I don't see any reroll actions.


If you're not referring to some separate action, then do you count

player1 rolls w and x.
player2 rolls y and z.

as three rerolls or just two? ​ (just w to x and y to z, or also x to y)

[Jellby]

Yes, around 1/6 of the time rerolling one die gives the same number. This is clearly NOT RANDOM!

[Charles Marlow]

Yes, around 1/6 of the time rerolling one die gives the same number. This is clearly NOT RANDOM!

What about when you reroll a 3/4 and get 3/4 then reroll that 3/4 and get 3/4? then next time you reroll 5/6 and get 5/6? I guess that is random.

Clearly with the multitudes of times you have played space base on here you must have seen it happen. I am sure you are arguing from first hand knowledge of how the dice roll on this game. Clearly.

[Gulchen]

​
From the ​ Game log ​ for ​ https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=836307410 , ​ I see that Space Base apparently does have a

specific ​ reroll ​ action. ​ ​ ​ Can this be used to reroll two at once, or are you referring to two uses with only a which-to-keep choice in between?
​

[NinePointOh]

Yes, around 1/6 of the time rerolling one die gives the same number. This is clearly NOT RANDOM!

What about when you reroll a 3/4 and get 3/4 then reroll that 3/4 and get 3/4? then next time you reroll 5/6 and get 5/6? I guess that is random.

Clearly with the multitudes of times you have played space base on here you must have seen it happen. I am sure you are arguing from first hand knowledge of how the dice roll on this game. Clearly.

Randomness is about long-run patterns, not short-run anecdotes. If the dice are truly random, not only will you observe the outcomes you listed some of the time, but you SHOULD observe them some of the time. If you never observed these weird runs of the same number being rolled consecutively, that would indicate a problem because it would mean the rolls are not truly independent from each other.

[Charles Marlow]

Yes, around 1/6 of the time rerolling one die gives the same number. This is clearly NOT RANDOM!

What about when you reroll a 3/4 and get 3/4 then reroll that 3/4 and get 3/4? then next time you reroll 5/6 and get 5/6? I guess that is random.

Clearly with the multitudes of times you have played space base on here you must have seen it happen. I am sure you are arguing from first hand knowledge of how the dice roll on this game. Clearly.

Randomness is about long-run patterns, not short-run anecdotes. If the dice are truly random, not only will you observe the outcomes you listed some of the time, but you SHOULD observe them some of the time. If you never observed these weird runs of the same number being rolled consecutively, that would indicate a problem because it would mean the rolls are not truly independent from each other.

I am sure you have seen the dice reroll the exact same multiple times. I would go so far to say that the dice reroll the same number more then an different number

[NinePointOh]

I am sure you have seen the dice reroll the exact same multiple times.

As I said: I have, and I should. Look up a random number table in the back of a math textbook -- if the numbers are random and independent then you should see runs of the same number repeating multiple times. Far more often than human minds expect when we attempt to identify or mimic true randomness.

I would go so far to say that the dice reroll the same number more then an different number

Yeah you are welcome to say it, I just don't buy it on the basis of anecdotal evidence.

Quite honestly, it would take way more time and lines of code to program a biased dice-rolling system than it would be to just call a simple, widely-used RNG function that's built into every common programming language and learned on pretty much day one. I don't know many coders doing extra work for no money and no apparent reason. I understand the frustration and the perception, but I don't see the evidence and the argument makes little sense.

[FlyHappy]

yeah... I am so not a conspiracy buff, and I think its funny how many players I've run across that are convinced of silly things like predetermined outcomes and such....

buuuuuut... yeah, my anecodtal experience with that 3 position card (reroll one or two die), gives me the distinct impression of results that don't feel random.

I do understand probability, and I have faith that the very same software function/procedure is being used (as any other roll), but it's awfully hard to shake the impression I get when I use that card.

I guess what I am saying is that I am unable square "what I think", with "what I feel".
This has led me to avoid that card more then I should... though I keep trying to push thru that, and select it when tactically beneficial...