How much luck is involved in TM?

[FrankJones]

I think you should consider playing with preludes. I barely feel comfortable giving advice on B+P so I can't really help you with base only (although I like base gameplay)

I am one of the few who dislike preludes. They can be highly imbalanced, and I don't find 8-generation games of TFM enjoyable. I do like colonies, but that's another matter altogether

[Kulikk]

I think you should consider playing with preludes. I barely feel comfortable giving advice on B+P so I can't really help you with base only (although I like base gameplay)

I am one of the few who dislike preludes. They can be highly imbalanced, and I don't find 8-generation games of TFM enjoyable. I do like colonies, but that's another matter altogether

Yeah that's fair. I like preludes because they reduce variance, you'd have easier time climbing with it. But when playing srictly for fun I enjoy the absolute degeneracy of base + colonies

[rambling_coherently]

This is somewhat on topic and somewhat off topic. But I figure it is relevant enough to post here.

I could use some advice. I tend to make a lot of mistakes when I play TFM. At my peak I reached 529. I have fallen to 463. I was recently at 513 and then lost 3 games in a row for minus 50 Elo. I am frustrated and annoyed with myself.

You post more about the game than you actually play it. We're 5 months into the year, and you've played what, 4 games? I'm not counting all the gimmicky hotseat whatever. If you wanted to improve, you'd play the game.

If you actually sat down and played an arena season, you'd be a better player at the end of it. Preludes do not make the average game end in gen 8, it's still gen 10ish average (my average is 10.4 according to https://tfm-data.xyz/, but better players are lower)

[FrankJones]

I took a long break from playing TFM. Managing the bug forum takes a lot of time. But even when I was playing a lot, I made the same silly errors.

I know most prelude games don't end in 8. But one recent preludes game did. And many (most) end in 10. I prefer 10 as the low end and 12-13 as the high end. I just dislike preludes.

I've played TFM 1000 times. Whatever nuances I'm missing, it doesn't seem that playing volume will help me identify them. I do feel as though I learn a good deal when I read a game analysis someone did for someone else's game. Rarely do I post my own game for analysis.

[ArchDevious]

I'll be happy play some games with you Frank, friendly or norms I dont care. I'm not a great player, but maybe I could give a few pointers

[Andrei3009]

I'll be happy play some games with you Frank, friendly or norms I dont care. I'm not a great player, but maybe I could give a few pointers

It's funny that your profile says "Yes, you can be an elite player without ever joining a discord server"

[ArchDevious]

Well there was a certain keyboard warrior on the forums here a year ago who made the claim everyone good at this game was on this certain message board, I peaked at top 25 with only learning by myself. Obviously BGA has got much more competitive now, but I still dont agree with his claim.

[ft029]

https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=847339879

This is a rough game for sure, with only a glimmer of hope due to the opponent's misplays.

Opening hand: Very minor but you can consider cartel or birds.

Gen 2: I don't like towing a comet on titanium. With 2 plants that have no line toward getting converted, this is basically playing release of inert gases. I prefer passing, but you could perhaps towing a comet on 2 cards.

Gen 3: With fish and noctis farming as heat payoffs, I think you can consider just playing soletta now instead of natural preserve. Soletta is weak, but you have literally nothing to do here.

Gen 4: Passing arctic algae is obviously a blunder (probably costs the game right there). Energy tapping is better than capital-- mining guild can't use its steel unless it has energy. Farming is better than deep well heating when you have soletta.

Gen 5: I like hired raiders more than the other cards. I lean toward not keeping phobos space haven (already have lots of late game titanium cards) but it's minor. I am even less inclined to play it after opponent plays rover and immigrant city. The two lines I'd consider are either pass, or large convoy on card (to get from 3 to 8 plants), and convert on ascraeus mons. You badly need cards to play here.

Gen 6: Taking heat to -22 celsius is a mistake because opponent is starting next gen and will have 8 heat. Also note that because you passed tapping you cannot play power plant-- the extra few energy rollover might make a difference.

Gen 7: Taking heather over pets is definitely correct. I would skip mining expedition though, with your opponent having protected habitats. Later you draw strip mine-- I would delay acquired company instead of selling WIFE. Currently WIFE is 4 points for 25 which is a good deal, and could get much better. It's one of your only outs here in this losing position. You could also consider selling noctis farming or mining expedition, which I think are the worst cards here.

Gen 8: Mining expedition seems random-- it doesn't do anything. The only use of that card in this scenario is securing the 8% oxygen bump. Noctis farming is also weak as you are going into 2nd position and have no way to convert your plants.

Gen 9: Permafrost extraction > Physics complex >>> Mag field dome. Mag field dome is by far the worst card here, and I don't see how the 1TR helps get you to terraformer. I would keep ICS, skip mag field. Permafrost would've been playable this gen (you can't know this, but it was certainly playable next gen). The problem with mag field dome is you might find better use of your power later-- any city, commercial, dev center, or AI central, to name a few. Later we play a horrendous carbonate processing for our last energy, and because of this cannot play a fantastic open city. Energy is valuable!!

Gen 10: Any choice except for carbonate processing is defendable. I probably lean toward geothermal power to deny mining guild power. Thermalist is yours no matter what anyway-- they don't have the power to play carbonate. My first 2 actions here are raise heat and SP asteroid for the bonus ocean. I think even if you lose the 8 fund, the swing from the ocean is worth more than the 6mc lost from having to do a 14 fund.

Gen 11-12: Not sure why you are skipping second action here. It is beneficial for you to draw as soon as you can and try to find a city or teleport down south. Outstalling isn't good when it means you lose out on the best spots on the ground (it didn't happen in this game, but a competent opponent would take advantage of it). I do not like the open city location. Put it down south, where you get 10mc, 2 plants, and 2 cards worth of rebates. Opponent won't be filling their cities anyway.

Gen 13: Greenhouses is better than urbanized area. Both are probably 2 points, so might as well take the cheaper one that doesn't require power (which the opponent does not have).

Takeaways: Be patient-- some cards are so inefficient it is better to just pass and stay flexible. Do not spend precious energy on bad cards like mag field dome or carbonate.

[FrankJones]

Excellent analysis. Agreed on all points. Those are mistakes that just don't make sense. By that I mean, "what was I thinking at the time !?"

Bad draft decisions, lack of a plan, loss of focus. I somehow didn't realize I was handing my opponent the -20 temp bonus. I somehow lost track completely of my opponent's greeneries and thought I was swiping Terraformer only to have him claim gardener on the next action. And yes, that lack of energy was really causing problems. I did have my plants zapped, but as you noted, I kept leaving plants dangling for no good reason. My bad decisions with tile placement left me blocked and unable to plant greeneries without placing an inefficient new tile. I could have used Large convoy as you noted to gain 2 cards much earlier and to convert into a greenery, which might not be as many points as saving it to place 4 animals, but it gets me cards and income earlier.

So many puzzling mistakes. I need to review that game again while reading your analysis. ArchDevious, you would beat me easily right now. I need to clean up these errors if I want to have a chance against a 600+ Elo player.

[ArchDevious]

Yea, you just need to play more. You are pretty decent rank for your number of games. If you havent, watch certain internet videos on the tier list of cards corps and preludes, and learn how to do a basic "waterwalking" gen 10 TR rush. Then play a bunch of games and you will improve