This game is broken.

[nitzanshepher]

I agree with the first poster. Today I played 5 games in a row, in which the opponent had multiple high doubles in a row. Lik 4 times a 5 or 6 double in a row and that during multiple games in a row. That is not random. I am very sorry, but it is absolutely infuriating if this kees happening. Yes, there is luck involved but this is very very unlikely to say the least.

[nuffbought]

Really? So how long do I have to wait before I get a sharp upturn??? It's so aggravating after having hovered around 300 ELO since I got there, albeit for only about four months since I joined in Jan., and now I'm around 165 and can barely ever win. It doesn't help that the game is often pitting me against lower Arena levels so I take a big hit on a loss and a low return on a win.

Statistically I would think I would have already started winning again. This is insane!

That's not how random events work, though.

If you are watching a roulette wheel and see red hit 3 times in a row, it doesn't now have a higher chance of hitting black on the next spin, the odds are the same each spin.

Considering that in single games of backgammon, the better player usually has a 50some% chance of winning (not that much better than a coin flip), and looking at your most recent 30 matches (10 wins, 20 losses), the likelihood that someone with as many total games played as you would hit a streak like that is over 40%. So not at all unexpected.

The only way to remove the massive randomness of backgammon is to play much higher point matches with the doubling cube (I prefer 11 point at least, but will occasionally play 9 or 7).

Hm... I guess I'm looking it as however many games I play, each game is a 50% chance of winning, so after losing a ton of games I should get back to winning if it's supposedly 50% chance each game. I'm certainly not a statistician though, so I guess I'm looking at it incorrectly.

Unfortunately, I'm really just mostly trying to increase my Arena rank, so I can't adjust the points in each match.

Thanks for your input!

[nuffbought]

I get that it’s very frustrating to have a long bad run of luck. But are you suggesting that the game, or the developers, are somehow picking on you specifically and favouring your opponents? That doesn’t seem plausible to me. If something had changed, it would surely affect everyone.

No, I never said that. In fact, I said that for all I know my opponents who win are facing the same situation and I'm one of their occasional victories.

[nuffbought]

If the dice are truly random.

You'll inevitably have long losing streaks if you play enough games.
That's evidence FOR the dice being random, not against.

Never having a streak like that would be the suspicious situation.

But besides that, the new match play option and arena setting has drawn many more experienced BG players to play on bga. The majority of good players have other sites to play bg on. And aren't interested in playing single point matches.

So you now have a huge influx of very good players with very low rankings. It's not strange to take a dive in rating when the average quality and skill of bga BG players has increased significantly in a short time.

Interesting. Thanks for your input!

[euklid314]

Really? So how long do I have to wait before I get a sharp upturn??? It's so aggravating after having hovered around 300 ELO since I got there, albeit for only about four months since I joined in Jan., and now I'm around 165 and can barely ever win. It doesn't help that the game is often pitting me against lower Arena levels so I take a big hit on a loss and a low return on a win.

Statistically I would think I would have already started winning again. This is insane!

That's not how random events work, though.

If you are watching a roulette wheel and see red hit 3 times in a row, it doesn't now have a higher chance of hitting black on the next spin, the odds are the same each spin.

Considering that in single games of backgammon, the better player usually has a 50some% chance of winning (not that much better than a coin flip), and looking at your most recent 30 matches (10 wins, 20 losses), the likelihood that someone with as many total games played as you would hit a streak like that is over 40%. So not at all unexpected.

The only way to remove the massive randomness of backgammon is to play much higher point matches with the doubling cube (I prefer 11 point at least, but will occasionally play 9 or 7).

Hm... I guess I'm looking it as however many games I play, each game is a 50% chance of winning, so after losing a ton of games I should get back to winning if it's supposedly 50% chance each game. I'm certainly not a statistician though, so I guess I'm looking at it incorrectly.

Unfortunately, I'm really just mostly trying to increase my Arena rank, so I can't adjust the points in each match.

Thanks for your input!

That is a common misconception. Let me explain...

Say, you win 50% in a random event. It is widely known that in the short run everything is possible but on the long run it should even out. 100% of wins in 2 events is quite likely, 100% of wins in 20 events is rather unlikely but possible, 100% of wins in 10000 events will not happen.

But what does "it will even out in the long run" mean?
Say, you have 10 wins 20 losses like in your case. The win rate is 33.3%.
Let us assume that in the next 30 games you have 13 wins and 17 losses. Still less wins as you are used to. But your total win rate rises to 23/60=38.3%.
Let us assume that after this you have 15 wins and 15 losses. Average result. Your total win rate rises to 38/90=42.2%.
Let us assume that after this you have 500 wins and 500 losses. Your total win rate rises to 538/1090=49.4%.

The win rate will tend to 50% on the long run NOT because the losing streak in the beginning was cancelled out by winning streaks later but it tends to 50% because the losing streak is canncelled out by the sheer number of games played later. In my example we had 1060 more games (never with more wins then losses!) and the win rate arrived at 49.4%, starting from 33.3%.

A random event never knows about previous results. It will never change its outcome because of previous events.

[euklid314]

I get that it’s very frustrating to have a long bad run of luck. But are you suggesting that the game, or the developers, are somehow picking on you specifically and favouring your opponents? That doesn’t seem plausible to me. If something had changed, it would surely affect everyone.

No, I never said that. In fact, I said that for all I know my opponents who win are facing the same situation and I'm one of their occasional victories.

So you assumed that everybody lost more than before? This is mathematically impossible because there is 1 winner and 1 loser in each game. If somebody loses more somebody wins more.

This will always even out because the number of winners equals the number of losers.

The win percentage of all players combined is exactly 50% at any moment in time. It is not a random variable.

[Jellby]

See also: https://galileo.phys.virginia.edu/class ... omWalk.htm

[leRocherCsurfait]

Come on!
My opponent just made 9 doubles on 20 plays!
It cannot be an interesting game

[euklid314]

Come on!
My opponent just made 9 doubles on 20 plays!
It cannot be an interesting game

9 or more doubles from 20 rolls has a probability of 0.28%. I.e. it should on average happen 1 out of 360 stretches of 20 rolls.

In other words: It happens hundreds of times each week (each day?) on BGA.

[nuffbought]

I get that it’s very frustrating to have a long bad run of luck. But are you suggesting that the game, or the developers, are somehow picking on you specifically and favouring your opponents? That doesn’t seem plausible to me. If something had changed, it would surely affect everyone.

No, I never said that. In fact, I said that for all I know my opponents who win are facing the same situation and I'm one of their occasional victories.

So you assumed that everybody lost more than before? This is mathematically impossible because there is 1 winner and 1 loser in each game. If somebody loses more somebody wins more.

This will always even out because the number of winners equals the number of losers.

The win percentage of all players combined is exactly 50% at any moment in time. It is not a random variable.

That's not what I said. Obviously if there's a winner there's a loser.

That doesn't negate two people who are losing a lot all of a sudden becoming opponents.