This game is broken.

[nitzanshepher]

Come on!
My opponent just made 9 doubles on 20 plays!
It cannot be an interesting game

9 or more doubles from 20 rolls has a probability of 0.28%. I.e. it should on average happen 1 out of 360 stretches of 20 rolls.

In other words: It happens hundreds of times each week (each day?) on BGA.

What is the chance of this happening in 5 out of the 7 games you play. There is definately something not right about so many doubles coming in swarms continuesly. almost unbelievable lucky strikes happening in almost every game. Yes, sometimes I wil and sometimes I lose but it is mostly dependant on the dice by now and hardly n any skill level.

[Silene]

Come on!
My opponent just made 9 doubles on 20 plays!
It cannot be an interesting game

9 or more doubles from 20 rolls has a probability of 0.28%. I.e. it should on average happen 1 out of 360 stretches of 20 rolls.

In other words: It happens hundreds of times each week (each day?) on BGA.

What is the chance of this happening in 5 out of the 7 games you play. There is definately something not right about so many doubles coming in swarms continuesly. almost unbelievable lucky strikes happening in almost every game. Yes, sometimes I wil and sometimes I lose but it is mostly dependant on the dice by now and hardly n any skill level.

That would be uncommon but occasionally can happen. Of course if it happens consistently (like you played 70 games and it happened in 50 of them) then it might be worth looking into it. But I don't believe this happened unless you show proof.

[RicardoRix]

The RNG doesn't even know what a double is.

Tests have been done to show that the RNG is random.

Tests have been done to show the human perception of random is way off.

You can see anyones stats on the backgammon dice, e.g:
https://boardgamearena.com/playerstat?i ... 72&game=53

The game is all about using your luck mitigation skill. Either live with the luck you get, or just play a different game.

[BarnardsStar]

What is the chance of this happening in 5 out of the 7 games you play. There is definately something not right about so many doubles coming in swarms continuesly. almost unbelievable lucky strikes happening in almost every game. Yes, sometimes I wil and sometimes I lose but it is mostly dependant on the dice by now and hardly n any skill level.

Which 7 games did this happen 5 times in? Extraordinary claims etc etc.

You do realize, as well, that backgammon is a lot like poker in the sense that if you play a single 1-pt game or a single hand of poker, it will indeed be mostly dependent on luck; it’s only when you play an extended series of matches or a bunch of poker hands that the effects of skill become evident?

[nuffbought]

And still it continues... and I've had someone say that it happens to them as well and so they stop playing arena matches for a couple days and it seems to reset. So...

All I know is there is no way I'll donate again as I don't need to pay for aggravation that is caused by insane dice rolls that are now 90% not in my favor. I mean when your opponent takes several huge risks in a row and doesn't get penalized and then gets perfect rolls and that happens in multiple games there is no way there's not something weird happening, whatever you want to call it. And why did it change all of a sudden after five months? And still hasn't stopped after almost three weeks? Statistics, schmatistics. Doesn't explain what is happening.

[BarnardsStar]

And still it continues... and I've had someone say that it happens to them as well and so they stop playing arena matches for a couple days and it seems to reset. So...

All I know is there is no way I'll donate again as I don't need to pay for aggravation that is caused by insane dice rolls that are now 90% not in my favor. I mean when your opponent takes several huge risks in a row and doesn't get penalized and then gets perfect rolls and that happens in multiple games there is no way there's not something weird happening, whatever you want to call it. And why did it change all of a sudden after five months? And still hasn't stopped after almost three weeks? Statistics, schmatistics. Doesn't explain what is happening.

Why would you donate when you could buy a premium membership and get benefits from it?

That said, let’s go through this one more time: when the dice are rolled, the cryptographic-quality random number generator being used has no idea who you are or any attributes about you (location, premium, gender, favorite flavor of ice cream, etc). And between one roll and the next, thousands or tens of thousands of other rolls across the site take place, so it’s not like it can keep track.

That leaves the game code. Let’s consider the options: the developer either (a) just uses the random number being generated and presents that to you, or (b) decides to favor one player in the game and tilt rolls in their favor by doing analysis to figure out what a “good roll” or “bad roll” are at any given moment, and modifies the rolls accordingly. This would be against the terms of service, mind you. And far more complicated than (a), and why would they even do that?

As for giving up Arena for a few days to have your bad luck reset… well, hey, that might work. You might also consider picking your nose right before each roll, or spinning around in your chair three times before each game. Those seem as likely to work as that other bit of magical thinking.

Have you considered that maybe you had an extended run of good luck and now you’ve reverted to the mean?

[nuffbought]

And still it continues... and I've had someone say that it happens to them as well and so they stop playing arena matches for a couple days and it seems to reset. So...

All I know is there is no way I'll donate again as I don't need to pay for aggravation that is caused by insane dice rolls that are now 90% not in my favor. I mean when your opponent takes several huge risks in a row and doesn't get penalized and then gets perfect rolls and that happens in multiple games there is no way there's not something weird happening, whatever you want to call it. And why did it change all of a sudden after five months? And still hasn't stopped after almost three weeks? Statistics, schmatistics. Doesn't explain what is happening.

Why would you donate when you could buy a premium membership and get benefits from it?

That said, let’s go through this one more time: when the dice are rolled, the cryptographic-quality random number generator being used has no idea who you are or any attributes about you (location, premium, gender, favorite flavor of ice cream, etc). And between one roll and the next, thousands or tens of thousands of other rolls across the site take place, so it’s not like it can keep track.

That leaves the game code. Let’s consider the options: the developer either (a) just uses the random number being generated and presents that to you, or (b) decides to favor one player in the game and tilt rolls in their favor by doing analysis to figure out what a “good roll” or “bad roll” are at any given moment, and modifies the rolls accordingly. This would be against the terms of service, mind you. And far more complicated than (a), and why would they even do that?

As for giving up Arena for a few days to have your bad luck reset… well, hey, that might work. You might also consider picking your nose right before each roll, or spinning around in your chair three times before each game. Those seem as likely to work as that other bit of magical thinking.

Have you considered that maybe you had an extended run of good luck and now you’ve reverted to the mean?

Sure bud. All you snarky guys who think you're so smart don't seem to comprehend what I said since when you reply it's not to what I actually said, but what you've decided I've said.

[BarnardsStar]

If a bunch of people don’t seem to understand what you said, maybe you should consider saying it a different way. Communication is a two-way street, and if one person says something and a bunch of people don’t get it, then maybe the problem is the speaker and not the listeners.

So: what you seem to be saying is there’s some sort of … pattern, or trend, in the dice rolling algorithms. Specifically, that the pattern here is “you rarely get what you need but your opponents usually get what they need”.

If that’s not what you’re saying, maybe you should consider saying things a different way.

Oh, and don’t call me bud. I’m not your bud. If this message seems peevish, that’s why.

[Nunzio Buonaventura]

What seems to be weird to me is that during a match, one player seems to be "luckier" than the other consistently. It happens in briscola, poker, cribbage, it has happen to me, in both winning and losing positions. I think it can be cool that BGA allows access to some data to perform statistical analysis, check for patterns, etc in backgammon if you are premium you can see the number of doubles rolled per player. If it turns out to be that consistently indeed, one player in the same match gets luckier ove and over again then maybe we could say that bga is broken.

[Jellby]

What seems to be weird to me is that during a match, one player seems to be "luckier" than the other consistently.

Yes, that's the definition of luck. It would be very rare (and suspicious) if all players had the same luck.