Reroll dice mechanics

[Charles Marlow]

yeah... I am so not a conspiracy buff, and I think its funny how many players I've run across that are convinced of silly things like predetermined outcomes and such....

buuuuuut... yeah, my anecodtal experience with that 3 position card (reroll one or two die), gives me the distinct impression of results that don't feel random.

I do understand probability, and I have faith that the very same software function/procedure is being used (as any other roll), but it's awfully hard to shake the impression I get when I use that card.

I guess what I am saying is that I am unable square "what I think", with "what I feel".
This has led me to avoid that card more then I should... though I keep trying to push thru that, and select it when tactically beneficial...

It's now what you feel but more what you have experienced. I still buy the reroll hoping aimlessly that I can somehow beat the matrix of the pre determined winner.

[Corny Cornmeal]

REROLL 1 die and -
Get the same number - 16.67% of the time....
______

REROLL 1 die 6 times and -
EXPECT to Get the same number 1 time....

BUT DON'T BET ON IT......!
Exactly ThaT happens 40% of the time....!

34% of the time - Get ZERO of the same number -
26% of the time - Get the same number MORE than Once.
____

Reroll 1 die 60 times and -
EXPECT to Get the same number 10 times....

BUT DON'T BET ON IT.....!
ThaT happens 13.7% of the time...!

44.6% of the time - Get the same number LESS than 10 times.
41.7% of the time - Get the same number MORE than 10 times...
______

SO WHEN DO RARE PATTERNS BECOME SUSPECT..?

Reroll 1 die 60 times and -
Get the same number 20 {or more} times ?
--- DOUBLE the Expected count ...! ---
IS ThaT Suspect ?

It's ODD, ...True.. but...
Not ThaT far out on the bell curve...

Get the same number 20 {or more} times... 1/8th of 1% of the time...

For Comparison
ThaT IS AS RARE AS A STRAIGHT FLUSH IN 5-CARD POKER HAND...
__________

On any Individual game,
Reroll 1 die 12 times and -
Get the same number 4 (or more) times....!
--- DOUBLE the Expected count ...! ---
IS ThaT Suspect ?

Hmmm... ThaT happens 1/8 th of the time ..!
_______

Now when DOES this get suspicious... ?

SHOULD THAT 1/8th EVENT HAPPEN - SAY 3 GAMES OUT OF 4 ...WOULD THAT {finally} BE SUSPICIOUS..?

ThaT is 6x More Likely Than .... the 20 out of 60 Reroll scenario (the Straight Flush scenario)......
___________

IF 8 INDIVIDUAL GAMES ARE PLAYED & 1 DIE IS REROLLED 12 TIMES IN EACH GAME &
Get the same number 4 (or more) times in 6 OR MORE of THOSE 8 GAMES...
THEN
OK (finally) - ODDS ARE UNDER 1 IN 10,000 .... a bit more RARE than a Royal Flush....[Royal Flush 1 / 7,000}


For Comparison..
1 / 10,000 People can do one-arm pull ups....
...

[Charles Marlow]

REROLL 1 die and -
Get the same number - 16.67% of the time....
______

REROLL 1 die 6 times and -
EXPECT to Get the same number 1 time....

BUT DON'T BET ON IT......!
Exactly ThaT happens 40% of the time....!

34% of the time - Get ZERO of the same number -
26% of the time - Get the same number MORE than Once.
____

Reroll 1 die 60 times and -
EXPECT to Get the same number 10 times....

BUT DON'T BET ON IT.....!
ThaT happens 13.7% of the time...!

44.6% of the time - Get the same number LESS than 10 times.
41.7% of the time - Get the same number MORE than 10 times...
______

SO WHEN DO RARE PATTERNS BECOME SUSPECT..?

Reroll 1 die 60 times and -
Get the same number 20 {or more} times ?
--- DOUBLE the Expected count ...! ---
IS ThaT Suspect ?

It's ODD, ...True.. but...
Not ThaT far out on the bell curve...

Get the same number 20 {or more} times... 1/8th of 1% of the time...

For Comparison
ThaT IS AS RARE AS A STRAIGHT FLUSH IN 5-CARD POKER HAND...
__________

On any Individual game,
Reroll 1 die 12 times and -
Get the same number 4 (or more) times....!
--- DOUBLE the Expected count ...! ---
IS ThaT Suspect ?

Hmmm... ThaT happens 1/8 th of the time ..!
_______

Now when DOES this get suspicious... ?

SHOULD THAT 1/8th EVENT HAPPEN - SAY 3 GAMES OUT OF 4 ...WOULD THAT {finally} BE SUSPICIOUS..?

ThaT is 6x More Likely Than .... the 20 out of 60 Reroll scenario (the Straight Flush scenario)......
___________

IF 8 INDIVIDUAL GAMES ARE PLAYED & 1 DIE IS REROLLED 12 TIMES IN EACH GAME &
Get the same number 4 (or more) times in 6 OR MORE of THOSE 8 GAMES...
THEN
OK (finally) - ODDS ARE UNDER 1 IN 10,000 .... a bit more RARE than a Royal Flush....[Royal Flush 1 / 7,000}


For Comparison..
1 / 10,000 People can do one-arm pull ups....
...

Now do the math for 2 dice rolling the exact same result. then the math of those 2 dice rerolling the exact same result again.

[Remkar]

Now do the math for 2 dice rolling the exact same result. then the math of those 2 dice rerolling the exact same result again.

Based on my back of the envelope calculations, and using your past few days of games for an estimate of numbers rolls per game and rolls per day that you see...

You would statistically expect to see a reroll come up with the same numbers twice a game or slightly more.

And you would expect to see 2 rerolls in a row produce the same result every 2 days or so.

[Jellby]

Now do the math for 2 dice rolling the exact same result. then the math of those 2 dice rerolling the exact same result again.

Why? It will not convince anyone.

[Corny Cornmeal]

2 dice ---> Reroll BOTH to same result, then ---> Reroll BOTH to same result AGAIN ..!
Let's call ThaT 'double trouble'...
((1/6)^2)^2 = 7.7 per 10,000
...by Comparison, Odds of gettin a Four-of-a-kind [5-card poker hand] is 2.4 per 10,000..

Now.. IF Original Roll was 3 & 4 ...
Then 3 & 4 is same result, but IF we COUNT 4 & 3 ALSO as same result...
ThaT increases odds by 4x
((1/3)x(1/6))^2 = 3.1 per 1,000
...by Comparison, Odds of gettin a Flush [5-card poker hand] is 2 per 1,000
____________

Those "double trouble' results prompted my original Suspicions....
*playin SPACE BASE under various names...jajajajajaja...
A few years ago, 'double trouble' SEEMED to happen.... ALL TH' TIME...!
- but possibly DID happen 1/5 of the GAMES WHEN I BOT THAT CARD...!

......ODDS of such repetitions ARE
....WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY WAAAAAAAAAY WAAAY OFF THE CHART....
_____________

OK - Let's Calc some SUPER SLOPPY ODDS....
... 1 OUT OF 15,000,000
OR..... (6.4x10^-8)
.
.