Unreal dice rolling algorithm - change it

[SIMICMACAN]

Unreal!

For the whole game 4 wasn't thrown a single time.
Not a single time. 2 was thrown for 10 times at least. Not to mention 9, like every third number was 9

I don't know what kind of Stalin made this algorithm but you need to change it

You can check by yourself, Table #872237265

[Suoivax]

Unreal!

For the whole game 4 wasn't thrown a single time.
Not a single time. 2 was thrown for 10 times at least. Not to mention 9, like every third number was 9

I don't know what kind of Stalin made this algorithm but you need to change it

You can check by yourself, Table #872237265

I played a real life game of Catan and was connected to both 6's from the start.

never rolled a 6 the entire game.

So... are my physical dice broken?

No... that's just how randomness works, weird, unexpected stuff happens.

[Strode]

Unreal!

For the whole game 4 wasn't thrown a single time.
Not a single time. 2 was thrown for 10 times at least. Not to mention 9, like every third number was 9

I don't know what kind of Stalin made this algorithm but you need to change it

You can check by yourself, Table #872237265

I checked. These are the first 18 dice rolls (then I got bored).

9, 10, 5, 7, 7, 8, 8, 7, 6, 11, 8, 2, 6, 6, 12, 11, 8, 10

Every third number was 9? This is a great example of how faulty memory is.

[Paddles]

If a random number generator is working properly, then unlikely events will occur - as was pointed out earlier, that's the nature of randomness.

Real dice don't have a memory - if I'm rolling two (fair, not biased) dice, and I roll 2 five times in a row, that's rare, but not impossible. But the important thing is that the next time I roll the dice, the probability of getting another 2, is still 1 in 36 - the past sequence of 2s doesn't increase or decrease the probability of the next roll being 2. The same applies whether we're using two non-biased physical dice, or a non-biased electronic random number generator.

Strode's comment is relevant too. As humans, we're spectacularly bad at spotting and recognising randomness because

• Our brains are designed to find and recognise an immense variety of patterns, and they're so good at it that they can detect patterns even when no pattern is present.
• Our brains don't record memories like a video file on tape/disc that you can play back with fidelity. Our brains insert/invent details we didn't see at the time of making our memory, and the details can get altered with time and recall.

That's not something to be embarrassed about, it's a side-effect of the amazing brains we have as humans. But it does mean that when we are evaluating a random number generator, we have to rely on proper statistical analysis not perception, and not decide things from a sample too small to draw statistically significant conclusions, especially if it the sample was specifically chosen for analysis afterward it happened.

If you could predict "in the next Catan game I play, 4 won't be rolled all game" and then show this happened, then we'd have reason to doubt the quality of the random number generator.

[SIMICMACAN]

Unreal!

For the whole game 4 wasn't thrown a single time.
Not a single time. 2 was thrown for 10 times at least. Not to mention 9, like every third number was 9

I don't know what kind of Stalin made this algorithm but you need to change it

You can check by yourself, Table #872237265

I checked. These are the first 18 dice rolls (then I got bored).

9, 10, 5, 7, 7, 8, 8, 7, 6, 11, 8, 2, 6, 6, 12, 11, 8, 10

Every third number was 9? This is a great example of how faulty memory is.

Well, check later numbers

[Jontia]

Unreal!

For the whole game 4 wasn't thrown a single time.
Not a single time. 2 was thrown for 10 times at least. Not to mention 9, like every third number was 9

I don't know what kind of Stalin made this algorithm but you need to change it

You can check by yourself, Table #872237265

I checked. These are the first 18 dice rolls (then I got bored).

9, 10, 5, 7, 7, 8, 8, 7, 6, 11, 8, 2, 6, 6, 12, 11, 8, 10

Every third number was 9? This is a great example of how faulty memory is.

Well, check later numbers

I checked the last 18.
3, 5, 7, 8, 2, 6, 9, 9, 5, 9, 11, 3, 6, 6, 5, 12, 7, 6

3 out of 18 is a little high. Combined with the first 18, is 4 out of 36. Which is entirely normal.
In fact it's so normal that it must be a fix.

The dice are fine. You're just remembering things that didn't help you and did help your opponents and you've failed to understand how large numbers of games can throw up weird things like no 4s occasionally. This is random being random and it's totally fine.

[Silene]

Well, check later numbers

Or only look at the 2s and 9s. That'll convince you.

[Jellby]

I checked the last 18.
3, 5, 7, 8, 2, 6, 9, 9, 5, 9, 11, 3, 6, 6, 5, 12, 7, 6

And what's the probability of that exact sequence being the last 18 rolls in a game? It's abysmal! It's clearly rigged!