Massive Arena elo loss due to Turn-Based End of Season

[MasterMystery]

how does this work?
i was at 1683 after the last game that finished in time, there are 3 which we couldnt finish in time, for 2 of them id assume for sure a drop in arena score once season is over but down to 1606? even more i can see that one of them finished at arena rating that he had pre season end, so he gained no points?

so not finishing in time is like much more than losing actually? not that i can concede pre -50% progression

https://boardgamearena.com/halloffame?g ... &season=25

https://boardgamearena.com/gamestats?pl ... me_id=2415

[tarongot]

how does this work?
i was at 1683 after the last game that finished in time, there are 3 which we couldnt finish in time, for 2 of them id assume for sure a drop in arena score once season is over but down to 1606? even more i can see that one of them finished at arena rating that he had pre season end, so he gained no points?

so not finishing in time is like much more than losing actually? not that i can concede pre -50% progression

https://boardgamearena.com/halloffame?g ... &season=25

https://boardgamearena.com/gamestats?pl ... me_id=2415

I assume that by "ELO" you actually mean Arena points. In case of game not ended by end of season, only player that spent most time on thinking lose arena points like he/she would be last in that game. Rest doesn't lost nor gain any points. It is in Arena FAQ.

As for points. If you were one treated as last in all three games, 77 Arena points lost is possible. Much more possible if all 3 were much lower in arena points (like bottom of bronze league) then you.

[FrankJones]

Exactly. 77 Arena points lost for 3 games is not unusual. That's an average of 26 (approximately), which would happen even if you were relatively close to your opponents Arena scores in those 3 games.

Turn-based Arena game creation is shut off 5 days prior to the end of the season.

If you start Arena games prior to that, be sure you make your moves quickly. By not doing so, you increase the likelihood of the game not finishing in time, and you ensure that it will be you who takes the loss.

[MasterMystery]

ok i was not expecting so much, its not that i really care, i was just wondering, cause 26avg loss if over all previous games this season 22+ and -19 were the biggest arena score changes i saw

i was aware that it could be a loss not expecting soo much though

and as one game was started 47 days ago and i have finished games with much fewer days i would even be surprised if i have the most time (but we wont know until we quit or end it) than 77points in two games.

anyhow will know for next time

[MasterMystery]

thanks for the answer

but yeah probably its the loss count vs https://boardgamearena.com/gamestats?pl ... me_id=2415 as he is probably below 1300 arena with so many losses

[FrankJones]

ok i was not expecting so much, its not that i really care, i was just wondering, cause 26avg loss if over all previous games this season 22+ and -19 were the biggest arena score changes i saw

i was aware that it could be a loss not expecting soo much though

Keep in mind you're looking at a sample size of 12 games.

Arena uses a k-factor of 40, so the minimum (potential) gain or loss is going to be 20. Someone is going to be risking a gain loss of at least 20 every game. That doesn't mean someone will; if the higher ranked player wins, the gain for that player and loss for the opponent will be lower than 20.

For all 12 of your viewable games to result in your arena points change being between 19 and 22 means you had all 12 games against players with almost identical Arena points. That seems either very rare or fluky, or indicative of a game with a low number of elite players who are all very bunched together in arena points.

For example, if you and your opponent are even as few as 60 arena points apart, someone will gain or lose 23 arena points in that game.

EDIT:

Yeah, only 105 total Arena games played by all 8 players, only 8 Elites, all tightly bunched. This is going to yield atypical results.

For one of my games this season that just ended, my Elo changes were

Positive:
18
24
14
13
12
12
11
10
18
12
19
20
14
18
34
33
31
15
22
6

Negative:
24
31
26

So, much more variability there, resulting from a wider range of Arena points among the players.

Note that in the games in which I won a small number of points, had I lost instead (Or had the season end with the game in progress while I had longer thinking time), my loss would have been high.

[Jellby]

Arena uses a k-factor of 40, so the minimum gain or loss is going to be 20. Someone is going to gain or lose at least 20 every game.

Hmmm... I don't think so. The win an the loss cancel out. If both players have the same rating, one wins 20, the other loses 20. But if a 2000-rated player beats a 1500-rated one, the win and loss is just 2.1

[FrankJones]

Arena uses a k-factor of 40, so the minimum gain or loss is going to be 20. Someone is going to gain or lose at least 20 every game.

Hmmm... I don't think so. The win an the loss cancel out. If both players have the same rating, one wins 20, the other loses 20. But if a 2000-rated player beats a 1500-rated one, the win and loss is just 2.1

Bummer, I just had a long edit written out and I clicked post, but it did not post!

Okay, I was able to click back on the browser and retrieve it.

Yes, you are correct. What I meant to say was that one of the players will potentially stand to win or lose at least 20, because if the lower ranked players wins, the gain will be at least 20, and the loss for the higher ranked player at least 20.

[FrankJones]

ok i was not expecting so much, its not that i really care, i was just wondering, cause 26avg loss if over all previous games this season 22+ and -19 were the biggest arena score changes i saw

Just to further clarify the point:

You only lost one arena game after your score became visible upon reaching Elite.

But you had wins in which you gained 10, 9, and 11 arena points. Had those been losses instead you would have lose 30, 31, and 29.

[MasterMystery]

ok i was not expecting so much, its not that i really care, i was just wondering, cause 26avg loss if over all previous games this season 22+ and -19 were the biggest arena score changes i saw

Just to further clarify the point:

You only lost one arena game after your score became visible upon reaching Elite.

But you had wins in which you gained 10, 9, and 11 arena points. Had those been losses instead you would have lose 30, 31, and 29.

Yes that's clear. But as said at least one opponent was pretty close. Anyhow as the game has very few players, less variability. I'd assume it's mainly that the one game which was not finished against someone with lots of losses maybe even the most games total so low arena ranking, in case of me having most time, which I still don't believe as I have finished quite a lot of games that started later and always did my turn there two it would be lots of points