Rigged Dice

[Archisian]

Nevermind, found it.

[lefalaf]

Speaking of "4" posts about rigged dice:
https://xkcd.com/221/

[lefalaf]

These rigged dice complainers always seem to not understand how time works either and poking around the ones arguing such from these threads, they all, aside from the one which is now deleted, had numerous expels from time issues and bad reputations.

[tbhp]

Players with higher ELO are more likely to win? There must a problem with the dice, I can't think of any other explanation...

Well, if a player plans for more combinations, they are more likely to get a "lucky" combination on their turn, so it makes sense that better players would appear lucky from the perspective of those who aren't putting as much thought into the game.

With that said, we don't know if OP doesn't know that and didn't already take it into account in their assessment of things. Those sorts of threads always seem circle jerky in how most of the comments just seem to assume the OP doesn't understand anything about logic and probabilities and therefore their analysis is invalid. It may or it may not be.

Remember that being against conspiracy thinking as a principle is also a form of irrational thinking. Every argument must be addressed on its own terms.

[lefalaf]

seem to assume the OP doesn't understand anything about logic and probabilities and therefore their analysis is invalid. It may or it may not be.

No need to be obtuse. It's clear they don't understand these things or they wouldn't claim the dice are rigged.

It is such an absurd claim that even BGA made fun of them on April Fools' Day.

[tbhp]

seem to assume the OP doesn't understand anything about logic and probabilities and therefore their analysis is invalid. It may or it may not be.

No need to be obtuse. It's clear they don't understand these things or they wouldn't claim the dice are rigged.

How does this statement make any sense? You are just proving my point about how people aren't even bothering to think rationally about this.

OP didn't substantiate their claim with anything so it's hard to judge their argument, but we don't know if they don't have a valid argument either. Although, one would think that if they did, they would have presented it. That's the rational reason one should be unconvinced by their claim.

[Ceaseless]

Players with higher ELO are more likely to win? There must a problem with the dice, I can't think of any other explanation...

Well, if a player plans for more combinations, they are more likely to get a "lucky" combination on their turn, so it makes sense that better players would appear lucky from the perspective of those who aren't putting as much thought into the game.

Just in case the OP didn't understand Cile's implication, eh?

[FrankJones]

Correct.

The reason to reject the dice conspiracy threads here on BGA is, "This assertion is not supported by any evidence or facts."

Not,

"Oh, these conspiracy theories are by definition always nonsense and wrong."

[Paddles]

The reason to reject the dice conspiracy threads here on BGA is, "This assertion is not supported by any evidence or facts."

Actually, it's stronger than that.

The reasons to reject the dice conspiracy threads here on BGA are "This assertion is not supported by any evidence or facts." and "There is already ample evidence that contradicts the assertion" (i.e. the verifiable fact that BGA uses a known and public documented RNG that has been analysed extensively inside and outside of BGA, the verifiable fact that the BGA game code doesn't contain anything to adjust the numbers to favour premium/new/high-ELO/low-ELO/different-skin-tone members).

[nik592]

The reasons to reject the dice conspiracy threads here on BGA are "This assertion is not supported by any evidence or facts." and "There is already ample evidence that contradicts the assertion" (i.e. the verifiable fact that BGA uses a known and public documented RNG that has been analysed extensively inside and outside of BGA, the verifiable fact that the BGA game code doesn't contain anything to adjust the numbers to favour premium/new/high-ELO/low-ELO/different-skin-tone members).

This. And while this poster did not state any particular arguments as to why they think dice are rigged, the arguments we usually see are, "I had a game where the dice distribution was a low probability one so that clearly means the dice are rigged." Which in itself proves that those posters don't know anything about probability.

Also, I'd argue that if a poster just comes by and says, "Dice are rigged! NOT FAIR!", rather than "I thought the dice were running a bit oddly, so I analysed some data and it turns out the RNG on this game looks a bit wonky...", it's a pretty good bet they're going on vibes, and not statistical knowledge. But sure, surprise me OP.

All that said, as Paddles says, when people HAVE analysed the dice distributions, what they've found is that it's random. So I highly doubt we're going to see a post where someone does proper analysis and finds a problem, but sure, anything's possible.