Luck analysis for games.

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euklid314
Posts: 706
Joined: 06 April 2020, 22:56

Re: Luck analysis for games.

Post by euklid314 »

Axaddettu90 wrote: ↑26 September 2026, 22:56 Idea of counter is player which has made higher rolls in total has more better changes to win in whole game. Counter just only counts total valid moves which player has able to make in whole game with rolls in whole game. In blocked turns roll value is not 0, it is complete avegare roll number (8.16) minus average number of valid moves which player would made in this turn. Primitive luck valuation would be subjective comprasion between those two totals but it could also be exact ratio between those two total (player a total)/(player b total).
If you start a Backgammon game or match in simple mode (not Arena) you can add the option of exporting the mat-file after the game or match, respectively. Then you can analyze the luck factor of your games in whatever fashion you like.

Your above proposal has mayor flaws, however. Although in a pure race definitely the pip count (sum of numbers rolled) is very important to determine the luck factor there are many exceptions:

In a huge amount of game situations double 1 is one of the best rolls - despite only having 4 pips. Double 1 is so flexible that it is better than 5-6 in most game situations (holding games, back games, priming games,...). As said, only in race game situations everybody would prefer a 5-6 to a 1-1.

And in mutual priming games both players pray to get low dice. The player that rolls the higher dice will crunch earlier and will inevitably lose the game. In such situations 1-2 is by far the luckiest roll that one can get. 5-6 and all high doubles are losing rolls. The situation is very similar in back games where timing is crucial.
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Romain672
Posts: 1365
Joined: 05 April 2016, 13:53

Re: Luck analysis for games.

Post by Romain672 »

In another world where there is no stats shown:
My opponent roll too much 6s.
How hard is it to count the numbers of 1/2/3/4/5/6/11/22/33/44/55/66 and add it to the stats at the end of the game, this should be main priority.

After it's done:
But the numbers of 1/2/3/4/5/6/11/22/33/44/55/66 are in the right value, but thing X isn't, this should be main priority.

After it's done:
But during a blood moon, the players which have an 'e' in their pseudo are more likely to roll 5, unless they are scorpio, why isn't that stat not already added?

.

You have so many ways to calculate a 'luck factor'. If you add one, you would see that this luck factor is normal, but all the others are still on the table.
So you should either add stats of simples things like rolls, or do a lot of computation like others discussed before.
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