bga forest shuffle seems to have a winning-loosing mechanism

[BarnardsStar]

Is it normal to get the 2nd and 3rd winter cards back to back, it happened twice today. Why would the designers make such a game design, there's no point to the 2nd winter card if this keeps happening.

Normal? No. Possible? Sure. To have it happen twice in a day is very unusual, but when you consider the number of the games played on this site, it would be weirder if it never happened. But to be the recipient of this "luck", it must seem strange to you for sure. Especially when you've only ever played 8 rounds of this game, total (at least, on this site).

Maybe come back when you've played 80 times and let us know if it is indeed "normal" for this to happen.

[PaCman le Ouf]

Is it normal to get the 2nd and 3rd winter cards back to back, it happened twice today. Why would the designers make such a game design, there's no point to the 2nd winter card if this keeps happening.

Normal? No. Possible? Sure. To have it happen twice in a day is very unusual, but when you consider the number of the games played on this site, it would be weirder if it never happened. But to be the recipient of this "luck", it must seem strange to you for sure. Especially when you've only ever played 8 rounds of this game, total (at least, on this site).

Maybe come back when you've played 80 times and let us know if it is indeed "normal" for this to happen.

This thing happen at least 1/5 game I played since many weeks... the second winter card follow the first one.
And I think this happen even more than 1/5 game.
Just play 10 games in a row in real time and you will see it at least twice.

[Jellby]

Let's see if I get it right. Base game, 2 players, there are 66+48+44-30=128 non-winter cards. Split in 3, say 43 cards into which we shuffle 2 winter cards and put the 3rd on top. So what is the probability of two back-to-back winter cards?

According to Google AI (after convincing it of the right number of cards) it's 8.8%-9.0% (about one in 11-12). Given how human perception works, I wouldn't be surprised if this matched your 1/5.

Total number of possible positions for the two shuffled winter cards: 45*44/2 = 990
Number of positions where one card is first (so next to the one that will be put on top): 44
Number of positions where the two cards are together, but not first: 43

So, probability of the first two winter cards coming together: 44/990 = 4.44%
Probability of the first winter card being isolated, but the 2nd and 3rd coming together: 43/990 = 4.34%