What are the odds of this to happen!

Forum rules
Please DO NOT POST BUGS on this forum. Please report (and vote) bugs on : https://boardgamearena.com/bugs
Post Reply
primrose1234
Posts: 118
Joined: 01 February 2025, 20:03

What are the odds of this to happen!

Post by primrose1234 »

First hand: 10 of hearts 9 of diamonds
Second hand: 10 of hearts 9 of diamonds
Third and last hand: 10 of hearts 8 of hearts.

Three times the 10 of hearts, twice the 9 of diamonds, very similar hands in general!

https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=944437933
FSKFSK
Posts: 478
Joined: 12 January 2019, 07:22

Re: What are the odds of this to happen!

Post by FSKFSK »

The odds of the same card in your hand two hands in a row is 1/26. The odds of the same card in your hand three hands in a row is 1/26 * 1/52 or 1 in 1000. Not that unlikely if you play a lot.
User avatar
Bender3002
Posts: 94
Joined: 19 January 2024, 15:42

Re: What are the odds of this to happen!

Post by Bender3002 »

1st hand: I assume you don't care specifically about what cards you get, then any combo will do.
2nd hand: To get the exact same cards again (I guess you don't care about the order): 1/26 * 1/51 = less than 0.1% (1 in 1326)
3rd hand: Same as above for it to happen, less than 0.001% (~ 1 in 1.7 Million)

Now if you allow for the 3rd card a variation of ±1 for one of the cards, it's ~0.3% and combined ~0.00025% (~ 1 in 400'000)
FSKFSK
Posts: 478
Joined: 12 January 2019, 07:22

Re: What are the odds of this to happen!

Post by FSKFSK »

If you got the same pocket pair two hands in a row, and then another pocket pair on the third hand, would you have posted here? If you got Ah suited 3 hands in a row, would you have posted here? There are lots of possible combinations that would be "post worthy", but when you add them all up, the odds are reasonable you will have one of them.
primrose1234
Posts: 118
Joined: 01 February 2025, 20:03

Re: What are the odds of this to happen!

Post by primrose1234 »

FSKFSK wrote: ↑08 November 2026, 01:09 The odds of the same card in your hand two hands in a row is 1/26. The odds of the same card in your hand three hands in a row is 1/26 * 1/52 or 1 in 1000. Not that unlikely if you play a lot.
This is not the scenario I described. You might want to read again.
User avatar
Jellby
Posts: 3829
Joined: 31 December 2013, 12:22

Re: What are the odds of this to happen!

Post by Jellby »

If you're genuinely curious about the odds of such an event, that's a reasonable question with a reasonable answer that someone may be motivated enough to find.

If you're implying that something's fishy because it's a very unlikely event... well, I just rolled 20 dice and got: 3 6 3 5 4 4 3 4 6 3 3 3 2 1 2 4 3 1 5 3. What are the odds of that to happen? About one in 3.7e15, or 0.000000000000027%. And yet it happened. On my first try.
User avatar
dizzymisslizzy17
Posts: 44
Joined: 18 January 2022, 23:13

Re: What are the odds of this to happen!

Post by dizzymisslizzy17 »

I thinkthe OP was just amused by what happened and wanted to share. I'd certainly say it is an uncommon scenario, even if it is probably going to happen once in a large number of games.

The odds of getting the same pocket card in a consecutive hand is 1/26. The odds of getting the same two pocket cards in a consecutive hand is 1/(26*51) = 1/1326. To follow that with the one of those same pocket cards again in a third hand would be 1/(26*51*26) = 1/34,476.
User avatar
Bender3002
Posts: 94
Joined: 19 January 2024, 15:42

Re: What are the odds of this to happen!

Post by Bender3002 »

You can find the odds in the 2nd answer btw specific to the described scenario ;)
User avatar
sasuga28
Posts: 3
Joined: 28 November 2023, 12:40

Re: What are the odds of this to happen!

Post by sasuga28 »

primrose1234 wrote: ↑08 November 2026, 00:32 First hand: 10 of hearts 9 of diamonds
Second hand: 10 of hearts 9 of diamonds
Third and last hand: 10 of hearts 8 of hearts.

Three times the 10 of hearts, twice the 9 of diamonds, very similar hands in general!

https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=944437933
That's awesome Primrose! You must have a big heart!
One game, my teammate took W1 chip each round, and ended up with a straight for three rounds in a row!
It was so funny!
Post Reply

Return to “The Gang”