Proof That Bga Dice Aren’t Random

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tbhp
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Re: Proof That Bga Dice Aren’t Random

Post by tbhp »

Jellby wrote: ↑09 November 2026, 20:22 Now suppose the strategy is so simple that even a newbie can work it out, like tic-tac-toe but with guaranteed win instead of tie. We would see very low top elo, even if it's a supposedly no-luck game, right?
That would make tic-tac-toe a high luck game, despite having no "random" element per see. In practice though, who goes first is assigned randomly, so you could say that is the luck element.

That's my point about games like Stella. People think of "luck" as things that are part of the game elements (like things you can concretely see on the table). But the unpredictability of a game is much more than that. In the case of Stella, the choices other people make matter too. No matter how good you are at the game, no matter how much you think about your picks, there is always a possibility that your opponents will make baffling choices that cause your loss. That part is unknowable and therefore a luck element too.

In contrast, a game like Chess doesn't have your fate in the hands of an unpredictable opponent. It's all determined by how well you think about the game. The only way your opponent can be unpredictable (in a way that is bad for you) is if they manage to outplay you.
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Romain672
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Re: Proof That Bga Dice Aren’t Random

Post by Romain672 »

I will link that previous post about mostly Complexity here: https://boardgamearena.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=30423


What you just describe Tbhp is the 3 players's environnement. With 2 players you wouldn't got that element.
Now a game can be ruined more or less by opponents. In '6 nimmt!' since everyone play at the same time, focusing someone is possible but look harder. And in 7 wonders, you can have luck depending of which players your neighboors are.
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lefalaf
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Re: Proof That Bga Dice Aren’t Random

Post by lefalaf »

ChiefPointThief wrote: ↑09 November 2026, 18:50 Most people don’t even know mother road exist. It is interesting that can’t stop has 20million games played while mother road only has 7000 total.

Go ahead and list games you consider that are ranked 3s. Because I just checked flip 7 & that is ranked 3 (disagree). That is clearly a game that fits this topic. The king making aspect alone makes flip 7 a 4.

Dice forge, kingdomino, pixies 4? Oh wow! 😅
Yeah there’s a lot of off ratings lol
Luck ratings change drastically in kingdomino from 4p - 2p.
Mother Road is every bit as good, unlike Can't Stop Express, which is just ok, IMO. Perhaps not as well marketed, the busy board design is a turn off (don't know if it's any better IRL), and Can't Stop probably benefitted from being older when there weren't a zillion titles competing for attention, and time for 42 more years of word of mouth to make it well known.

Yeah, I was surprised to see Dice Forge, etc. rated as such. Some of the ones below, especially in the 3rd section are just as debatable and possibly not lucky enough.

More decent 4s and 5s
Collect
Booty Dice
Knister
Marrakech

Honorary 4+
Flip 7
Flip 7 with a Vengeance
Miams
Dozito
Qwinto
Ipso (fits your theme I think: starts with a Christmas Tree shaped board with a star on top; luck of the draw and careful placement in the tree)
Shifting Stones
Fluxx
Star Fluxx
Roll to the Top
Texas Bingo
Setup
Slide
Fugu
Slambo
Kado (fits your theme I think: gift box)
Toe Sham Bo
Game of Trains
Play Nine (to replace the basic playing cards of Golf if you choose it)
Jokerball
Bloxo
Bag of Chips
Jackpot: Set the Reel
Double Seven
Mountain Goats
Spots
Tally Up
King of the Dice
Diced Tomatoes
Line It
Vault
101
Auntie Mildred's List of Random Tasks

More Debatable, might truly be 3s
Flowers
Symboise
61
62
Junk Drawer
Summy
Diggin for Dinos
Quibbles
Fliptoons
Lost Seas
Fairy Trails
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ChiefPointThief
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Re: Proof That Bga Dice Aren’t Random

Post by ChiefPointThief »

tbhp wrote: ↑09 November 2026, 17:00
ChiefPointThief wrote: ↑09 November 2026, 16:20 Can you give examples?
Stella is an example of the former, and is how I realized those types of games have flawed luck ratings.

For the latter, you gave an example yourself. I see Captain Flip has a 4 luck rating, but its Elos are not all particularly low, so that seems wrong. On what basis should a game like that be so high?
You dip your hand in a bag and pull out a random tile. You then place this random tile on your board to score pts or if you don’t like it, flip it to the other side w/ no knowledge of what random character of 8 is on the other side and it can’t be flipped back.

It is also pretty isolated outside of the fact players can battle for the map. & the more players even that becomes less of a factor.

Me understanding what the most optimal moves are has allowed me to reach elo 500s multiple times or stay in 400s for long durations but even still currently I dipped back into 300s which based on math is inevitable.

I’ve played games in which I watched my opponents do bad moves all game while I made all the correct moves and still lost. There is also a strong 2p advantage. On a couple “racing” boards you can argue the advantage goes to player 1. birds give you an extra tile which is important because there are bonuses at the top of columns so if the distribution of birds is uneven amongst players the majority of the time this will favor the player who draws more birds bc they will be able to claim bonuses and end the game before other players have the ability to do so.

With that said there are decisions to be made to enhance your chance to be victorious. So 4 luck rating is fair. 5 would be something like playing slots or something in which you have almost no control over.
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