Elo score makes no sense, there's something off here

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Mars4ever
Posts: 38
Joined: 11 March 2022, 19:30

Elo score makes no sense, there's something off here

Post by Mars4ever »

Hi, how can this progression be possible?
In my firts 20-25 matches, I easily got to 200 elo in only 13 games, then a peak of 266 and even silver badge in arena mode. Then I started losing almost all the time, even with a 10 consecutive streak, and I've been stuck aroud 120-150 in the last 50 matches. There's no way to increase my scora anymore. I can accept to suck at this game, but if I suck, how the hell did I have those good results in the first place? This totally makes no sense.

Also it happened in other game, to reach 200 in an easy and quick way, then have a flextion and never go back to 200 again. Did anybody notice the same issue? Is there an explanation? I insist that there's something wrong here.
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Meeplelowda
Posts: 4113
Joined: 14 March 2020, 10:31

Re: Elo score makes no sense, there's something off here

Post by Meeplelowda »

Mars4ever wrote: ↑05 November 2026, 01:10 Hi, how can this progression be possible?
In my firts 20-25 matches, I easily got to 200 elo in only 13 games, then a peak of 266 and even silver badge in arena mode. Then I started losing almost all the time, even with a 10 consecutive streak, and I've been stuck aroud 120-150 in the last 50 matches. There's no way to increase my scora anymore. I can accept to suck at this game, but if I suck, how the hell did I have those good results in the first place? This totally makes no sense.

Also it happened in other game, to reach 200 in an easy and quick way, then have a flextion and never go back to 200 again. Did anybody notice the same issue? Is there an explanation? I insist that there's something wrong here.
You have correctly observed that, all things being equal, your Elo is going to change faster for your first 20 games than afterwards.

In case you haven't read the related FAQs, here are the links:
How does the ELO change calculation work?
How is my ELO updated?

Unfortunately, in a revision to the FAQ they removed the explanation of how the K-factor works on BGA. The FAQ used to explain that:
K, the 'elasticity factor,' has a value that depends on the number of games you have played: 60 for your first 10 games, 40 between your 11th and 20th games, 20 for your 21st onwards.
The K-factor is a linear scaling factor in the Elo calculation, so a person with a K-factor of 60 will gain (or lose) three times as many points as someone with the same rating who is playing a game for the 21st+ time, all other things being equal. There is also some question of whether friendly games count in the number of times played, which I don't recall off the top of my head.

And see this thread for a discussion for how Elo in multi-player games is awarded, which not a simple as adding up all the Elo adjustments that would have been made in a 1 v 1 match against all the other players: https://boardgamearena.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=46254
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Ceaseless
Posts: 1476
Joined: 12 November 2022, 17:06

Re: Elo score makes no sense, there's something off here

Post by Ceaseless »

Mars4ever wrote: ↑05 November 2026, 01:10 Hi, how can this progression be possible?
In my firts 20-25 matches, I easily got to 200 elo in only 13 games, then a peak of 266 and even silver badge in arena mode. Then I started losing almost all the time, even with a 10 consecutive streak, and I've been stuck aroud 120-150 in the last 50 matches. There's no way to increase my scora anymore. I can accept to suck at this game, but if I suck, how the hell did I have those good results in the first place? This totally makes no sense.

Also it happened in other game, to reach 200 in an easy and quick way, then have a flextion and never go back to 200 again. Did anybody notice the same issue? Is there an explanation? I insist that there's something wrong here.
BGA gives bigger changes for an account's first few times playing the game so that BGA can quickly figure out where they are. It lets those players skip over the lower ratings if they do well enough. After enough games the system has a better idea and the account slows down to normal. It's not uncommon for ratings to accelerate the first few games so players don't waste a bunch of time underrated. It's possible to temporarily overshoot a bit, but this will clear up after some games.
Mars4ever
Posts: 38
Joined: 11 March 2022, 19:30

Re: Elo score makes no sense, there's something off here

Post by Mars4ever »

Ok but this crappy behavior doesn't happen in every game.
Here in the first matches I had a lucky streak of 6 consecutive wins and I passed from 80 to 213 elo, then increaded even more.
Now in the last 50 games I'm stuck below 150. In the last 12 I've won 6 times and lost 6 times, I was 116 and not I'm 116. So how the hell is someone supposed to improve again??
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Suoivax
Posts: 392
Joined: 13 April 2022, 00:27

Re: Elo score makes no sense, there's something off here

Post by Suoivax »

Ceaseless wrote: ↑05 November 2026, 01:39
Mars4ever wrote: ↑05 November 2026, 01:10 Hi, how can this progression be possible?
In my firts 20-25 matches, I easily got to 200 elo in only 13 games, then a peak of 266 and even silver badge in arena mode. Then I started losing almost all the time, even with a 10 consecutive streak, and I've been stuck aroud 120-150 in the last 50 matches. There's no way to increase my scora anymore. I can accept to suck at this game, but if I suck, how the hell did I have those good results in the first place? This totally makes no sense.

Also it happened in other game, to reach 200 in an easy and quick way, then have a flextion and never go back to 200 again. Did anybody notice the same issue? Is there an explanation? I insist that there's something wrong here.
BGA gives bigger changes for an account's first few times playing the game so that BGA can quickly figure out where they are. It lets those players skip over the lower ratings if they do well enough. After enough games the system has a better idea and the account slows down to normal. It's not uncommon for ratings to accelerate the first few games so players don't waste a bunch of time underrated. It's possible to temporarily overshoot a bit, but this will clear up after some games.
How much you win or lose is dependent on the ELO of your opponent.
Ceaseless
Posts: 1476
Joined: 12 November 2022, 17:06

Re: Elo score makes no sense, there's something off here

Post by Ceaseless »

Suoivax wrote: ↑10 November 2026, 03:13
Ceaseless wrote: ↑05 November 2026, 01:39
Mars4ever wrote: ↑05 November 2026, 01:10 Hi, how can this progression be possible?
In my firts 20-25 matches, I easily got to 200 elo in only 13 games, then a peak of 266 and even silver badge in arena mode. Then I started losing almost all the time, even with a 10 consecutive streak, and I've been stuck aroud 120-150 in the last 50 matches. There's no way to increase my scora anymore. I can accept to suck at this game, but if I suck, how the hell did I have those good results in the first place? This totally makes no sense.

Also it happened in other game, to reach 200 in an easy and quick way, then have a flextion and never go back to 200 again. Did anybody notice the same issue? Is there an explanation? I insist that there's something wrong here.
BGA gives bigger changes for an account's first few times playing the game so that BGA can quickly figure out where they are. It lets those players skip over the lower ratings if they do well enough. After enough games the system has a better idea and the account slows down to normal. It's not uncommon for ratings to accelerate the first few games so players don't waste a bunch of time underrated. It's possible to temporarily overshoot a bit, but this will clear up after some games.
How much you win or lose is dependent on the ELO of your opponent.
That's one factor, but how new the account is to the game is another.
Ceaseless
Posts: 1476
Joined: 12 November 2022, 17:06

Re: Elo score makes no sense, there's something off here

Post by Ceaseless »

Mars4ever wrote: ↑10 November 2026, 01:49 Ok but this crappy behavior doesn't happen in every game.
Here in the first matches I had a lucky streak of 6 consecutive wins and I passed from 80 to 213 elo, then increaded even more.
Now in the last 50 games I'm stuck below 150. In the last 12 I've won 6 times and lost 6 times, I was 116 and not I'm 116. So how the hell is someone supposed to improve again??
They're supposed to improve by playing better than they did before. If a 500 kept playing on your account, they would end up reaching 500. Players reach their ratings through their results, players with better results have better ratings.
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Suoivax
Posts: 392
Joined: 13 April 2022, 00:27

Re: Elo score makes no sense, there's something off here

Post by Suoivax »

Ceaseless wrote: ↑10 November 2026, 03:17
Suoivax wrote: ↑10 November 2026, 03:13
Ceaseless wrote: ↑05 November 2026, 01:39

BGA gives bigger changes for an account's first few times playing the game so that BGA can quickly figure out where they are. It lets those players skip over the lower ratings if they do well enough. After enough games the system has a better idea and the account slows down to normal. It's not uncommon for ratings to accelerate the first few games so players don't waste a bunch of time underrated. It's possible to temporarily overshoot a bit, but this will clear up after some games.
How much you win or lose is dependent on the ELO of your opponent.
That's one factor, but how new the account is to the game is another.
Doh, quoted the wrong post, my bad.
Mars4ever
Posts: 38
Joined: 11 March 2022, 19:30

Re: Elo score makes no sense, there's something off here

Post by Mars4ever »

Suoivax wrote: ↑10 November 2026, 03:13How much you win or lose is dependent on the ELO of your opponent.
I know that, in theory. But how do you explain the fact that I often find people with 150 playing like a 300?
FrankJones
Posts: 2916
Joined: 30 June 2024, 00:24

Re: Elo score makes no sense, there's something off here

Post by FrankJones »

Mars4ever wrote: ↑10 November 2026, 01:49 Ok but this crappy behavior doesn't happen in every game.
Here in the first matches I had a lucky streak of 6 consecutive wins and I passed from 80 to 213 elo, then increaded even more.
Now in the last 50 games I'm stuck below 150. In the last 12 I've won 6 times and lost 6 times, I was 116 and not I'm 116. So how the hell is someone supposed to improve again??
Stop losing and start winning ??

Is this a serious question ?
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