Lost 500 ELO in one day

[GooseManchester]

I just wanted to post on something that I find really frustrating and unbelievable. Earlier this week I had the huge honor of finally ascending to Master Rank in RFTG. It had taken me over 4,000 games to finally achieve this goal, and I was super happy to have done so. Then I played another Master, and I lost, which I was kind of expecting being new to Master, and I get knocked back down to Expert. So I queue in an Expert game to win my way back to Master (which I expected would be one game, maybe three given my 51% win rate average). I then proceeded to lose 20 games in a row and dropped from Master to mid-tier Good in one day. Statistically I have a 51% win rate at RFTG, so it's not like I'm a bad player, but I've never had the fortune of earning anything near a 20 game win streak. So now all the work I had put into gaining Mastery over the course of several months is blasted to pieces in a one day streak of bad luck. That is enormously frustrating.

I've long wondered about the algorithms used in card dealing for RFTG, I've noticed some annoying things like discarding a card only to have my opponent use that same card in the next turn (obviously drawn by them between the time I discarded it and them using it). That would never happen in a real game with an actual discard pile. It also seems like the player with the lower ELO in a game generally draws better cards (in fact it was playing a low-tier Expert as a mid-tier Good that ended my losing streak). I was also trolled in two games where I drew the card I needed to win an action after I could've used it to win.

I'm not declaring shenanigans, I'm just super frustrated with such a meteoric fall given my statistical averages. Now I have to fight my way back up, which I'm not looking forward to, and am probably going to put the site away for a bit due to said frustrations. I don't even have any recommendations for solutions at the moment, I just more want to scream into the void.

[intrepid]

keep it simple stupid my papa told me just worry about one thing. WINNING not elo but feel for ya

[senatorhung]

I just wanted to post on something that I find really frustrating and unbelievable. Earlier this week I had the huge honor of finally ascending to Master Rank in RFTG. It had taken me over 4,000 games to finally achieve this goal, and I was super happy to have done so.

congratulations. getting to Master is a huge accomplishment, especially in RftG, which i personally feel is a game that is more luck.based than skill.based. you can play the cards you get as skillfully as you can, but you can still get cold.decked.

I then proceeded to lose 20 games in a row and dropped from Master to mid-tier Good in one day. ... I've never had the fortune of earning anything near a 20 game win streak. So now all the work I had put into gaining Mastery over the course of several months is blasted to pieces in a one day streak of bad luck. That is enormously frustrating.

from my experience playing poker, some days it is better to just quit before you tilt away all of your bankroll. i can sympathize, but you just had a run of bad luck with the cards.

I've long wondered about the algorithms used in card dealing for RFTG, I've noticed some annoying things like discarding a card only to have my opponent use that same card in the next turn (obviously drawn by them between the time I discarded it and them using it).

some cards have multiples in the deck ...

for me, i was happy to reach the top20 in takenoko yesterday ... only to drop back into the pack when i lost 30 ELO points after finishing behind by the emperor card in my next matchup. 2.player games of takenoko tend to be more skill.based (more objectives, easier predictability), but you can still run into a bad batch of green objectives while your opponent gets all the pink.

but as long as you enjoy actually playing the game, your ELO status is just a nice bonus.

[Realdeo]

I've long wondered about the algorithms used in card dealing for RFTG, I've noticed some annoying things like discarding a card only to have my opponent use that same card in the next turn (obviously drawn by them between the time I discarded it and them using it). That would never happen in a real game with an actual discard pile.

1. They are some duplicate cards in RFTG if I reckon.
2. You're having what people called as "Live poker vs Online poker" fallacy. Many people claims that online poker is rigged because it showed more "probabilistic impossible" event then to live poker. The truth is, they said so because online poker allows you to play more game then in live (in casino) poker.

You said you had taken 4,000 online games, right? How many games of RFTG you had taken in real life? I believe it's less then 100 games. You can't compare small sample (real life) to huge sample (online). If you force one to, then you have to use ratio (percentage) instead of head count.

I then proceeded to lose 20 games in a row

RFTG is a game of skill and luck--with bias to luck. It's normal for you to be unlucky. In poker, it's called downsizing. I had 80 games in a row downsizing.

Here comes my tips facing downsizing:
a) Downsizing is a mix of bad luck and bad skill. You want to review the 20 games that you lost.
b) Downsizing causes what poker player called as tilt. Tilt is a emotional disturbance that causes you to make unoptimal moves. Stop playing.

Statistically I have a 51% win rate at RFTG, so it's not like I'm a bad player

I'm sorry to say that 51% is not a good rate. It's not bad--but it's not good either. You're no better then a coin flip.

And about your epic journey of losing 500 ELO in a day.

Please understand that Board Game Arena employs ELO system different to chess. In ELO, there is a variable called "K factor". The higher the value of the K factor, the more violent your ELO shakes up.

Chess K factor for a grand master = 10. (Not 20, 20 is for novice)
Board Game Arena K factor for an expert = 40. (60 for the first 20 games. You played 2,500 games so 40 it is)

BGA's ELO system is 4x more violent then Chess' ELO system.

This is why that some games have no expert player. Perudo for example is a multi-player bluffing game. Because a game of perudo is usually consists of 6 players, one's elo can fluctuate over 100 ELO points in a game. The top ELO is now 1800s--Expert.

The good news for you is--if you're good player--you will easily climb 500 ELO points.
The bad news for you is--if you're a bad player who got lucky in the past--prepare to go worse.

[sourisdudesert]

hi,

Just an answer from the RFTG adaptation developer to make it 100% clear : of course there is no "special trick" to give better cards to weaker ELO players (or no one else). Cards are shuffled random, period.

[Oso]

Yes, it's so bad, it would be better if we get K = 25 for people with +1800 ELO because is very easy down a lot when you're expert if you've a bad day..

Here people when got +1700, they try to play with people of same level, and when pass 1800, they stop playing or play only with Experts -some players just play without ELO, like in your house, just for fun-

51% isn't a lot really. But if you're good player you will recover, at least you could get 1800 easily... but I recommend you don't play against opponent with -100 ELO than you.

100 ELO difference means 15/25 ELO (if you've more than your opponent, you will win 15 or will loss 25.... and vice versa)

[ringersoll]

Last week I had a bad week. Lost over 150 ELO in one week. Lost two games to very low rated players. I was very upset.

But, HEY, it's only a game. I am here to have fun and I am not going to let a few losses keep me from having fun!

So, I am continuing to have fun! I recommend that you do the same.

[intrepid]

aND aGAIN IN mY oPINION elo means nothing TO EASY TO MANIPULATE

[sprockitz]

As a fact checker I went through your stats to see if you actually lost 20 in a row. I see you lost 15 in a row and 19 of 21 with 1 tie, still bad, but statistically much more probable than 20 in a row.

As people have already stated I'm sure it was just a combination of bad luck and after a few losses slight adjustments trying to compensate for that luck which causes sub optimal play (much like realdeo's excellent poker analogy).