How far to push 6,7,8 on turn 1?

[frogstar_A]

OK imagine it's a new game, you're going first, and after 2 rolls you get onto columns 6,7,8.

Question - how many rolls / how far do you push it?

I think I don't push this hard enough, because I often see higher ranked players push this a long, long way - until at least all the columns are about half way and one column is higher or even finished.

But to me that feels very risky, and of course sometimes it doesn't work out for them either - but they all do it and it seems to work more than it doesn't.

What do you think is right?

[Jest Phulin]

1 turn before you don't roll a 6, 7, or 8.

Oh, you were looking for a mathematical answer? I think the rule of 28 is what most people play, when playing purely the math.

[frogstar_A]

1 turn before you don't roll a 6, 7, or 8.

Oh, you were looking for a mathematical answer? I think the rule of 28 is what most people play, when playing purely the math.

What is the rule of 28?

[Jest Phulin]

http://www.solitairelaboratory.com/cantstop.html
https://www.aaai.org/ocs/index.php/FLAI ... ad/123/338

Basically, a value is given for each column, and when your advancement value is more than 28, you are more likely to bust than significantly increase your advancement value.

[frogstar_A]

https://www.aaai.org/ocs/index.php/FLAI ... ad/123/338

Thanks, that's fascinating - another tip I have taken away is be careful of ending up on all odd numbers, and of having all your numbers above 7 or below!

[SluggerBaloney]

Deleted

[frogstar_A]

It's nonsense, just another version of the gamblers fallacy. The dice have no memory and at no point are you any more likely or less likely to bust as any other roll.

No - you're missing the point.

The % chance of busting is the same every turn. Agreed.

HOWEVER the further you go up the columns, the more you have to lose if you DO bust.

My question is - at what point does the marginal gain from one more move up a 6/7/8 column cease being worth the risk of losing it all by continuing?

That's what this analysis is seeking to answer. There is no fallacy.

[shadowphiar]

If I get this on the first turn, I push all the way until either I go bust or I've claimed a column. If it fails, it's no worse than if I had been the last player to start. If it succeeds it's a significant early advantage.

[Jest Phulin]

If I get this early game, I tend to push until at least one of them is about 3/4 up the path. If nothing else, it discourages others from trying to claim that column.

[guest_]

i like complete a row