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RicardoRix
Posts: 2541
Joined: 29 April 2012, 23:43

Re: "dubious" luck

Post by RicardoRix »

CaractacusPots wrote: 01 September 2020, 15:09 thus far I don't know of a single online gaming site that has true random real time numbers.
...............
In the end good players know if the dice are not real time and random or not. There's just no fooling good players.
true random numbers...think about it.

Players perceptions are the least credible source. The skill level is irrelevant.

You can only look for evidence of randomness pure and simple. If someone says I have a RNG and it's real, then how do you know that? How can you ever tell?

You HAVE to look at the results, and number crunch the evidence with statistical analysis, and that's all you can do.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tP-Ipsat90c

https://boardgamearena.com/forum/viewto ... 1&start=10
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CaractacusPots
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Joined: 31 August 2020, 18:08

Re: "dubious" luck

Post by CaractacusPots »

RicardoRix wrote: 01 September 2020, 16:39The skill level is irrelevant.
Don't agree. The skill level (when high) provides the first indicator that something is amiss with random generation. That then leads to further investigation and analysis.

RicardoRix wrote: 01 September 2020, 16:39 You can only look for evidence of randomness pure and simple. If someone says I have a RNG and it's real, then how do you know that? How can you ever tell?

You HAVE to look at the results, and number crunch the evidence with statistical analysis, and that's all you can do.

I agree, and I've done just that with other gaming sites. Played online poker for some years, kept all my hand histories, pumped them through hand analysis software and found I wasn't getting the right levels of certain things. Not enough AA hands, not enough flushes completed etc etc. Stopped playing. Not just because of the rigged cards but also because the industry is full of colluding players and other problems. Nothing online (gaming wise) is safe if there is money involved imo.

Not really interested in analysing things here. I would have to play many 1000s of games to acquire the data and I'm just not interested in doing that.
Just played BG with a premium player. He got 7 doubles in the game. I got 2 and they were both 1-1. Previous 2 games seems squiffy too. Knocked off the board, opponent only had the 6 point blocked, sure enough I am given 6-6. I'm not worried. I see the same on every BG site across the internet. It is what it is. You have to accept levelling.
Last edited by CaractacusPots on 01 September 2020, 18:57, edited 1 time in total.
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CaractacusPots
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Re: "dubious" luck

Post by CaractacusPots »

N_Faker wrote: 01 September 2020, 15:45How would one differentiate between pre-generated pseudo-random numbers and real-time generated pseudo-random numbers?
With difficulty. As with all such things you have to amass a huge number of hand/game details, recording every dice throw and then putting the data through analysis software unless you're adept with MS Access or Excel (which I am) and can write your own analysis count algorithms. Amassing the hand/game data is the issue and gaming sites know this. For the sample size to be meaningful you often need 100,000s of hands/games.
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nmego
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Re: "dubious" luck

Post by nmego »

Not really interested in analysing things here. I would have to play many 1000s of games to acquire the data and I'm just not interested in doing that.
Replays exist, you can use those. One can write a script to do that automatically and collect the data, I'm close to being motivated enough to work on that.
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N_Faker
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Joined: 09 September 2016, 10:16

Re: "dubious" luck

Post by N_Faker »

CaractacusPots wrote: 01 September 2020, 18:53
N_Faker wrote: 01 September 2020, 15:45How would one differentiate between pre-generated pseudo-random numbers and real-time generated pseudo-random numbers?
With difficulty. As with all such things you have to amass a huge number of hand/game details, recording every dice throw and then putting the data through analysis software unless you're adept with MS Access or Excel (which I am) and can write your own analysis count algorithms. Amassing the hand/game data is the issue and gaming sites know this. For the sample size to be meaningful you often need 100,000s of hands/games.
So there are statistical differences between pre-generated and real-time generated random numbers?
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CaractacusPots
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Re: "dubious" luck

Post by CaractacusPots »

N_Faker wrote: 01 September 2020, 19:04 So there are statistical differences between pre-generated and real-time generated random numbers?
There could be yes. It depends on how a site is using the predetermined sets of random numbers.

If sets of numbers were used more than once then that would ultimately skew the stats.

If no sets were re-used but some sets were never used that too might sway the numbers.

But this is somewhat academic. As previously stated everything rests on how any given site uses the random numbers.

Consider this. A simple game of Backgammon. Instead of calling the RNG program at the point of each dice throw lets say the site instead calls 30 dice rolls for each player BEFORE the game starts. Totally randomly. You now have 2 sets of 30 dice throws, one for each player, each with genuine random numbers.

Now from a randomness perspective those dice rolls will always look right when analysed. They have to. They are pure random numbers.

However the fact that they were generated BEFORE the game makes a huge difference. Because of that the system can then choose whichever one of those dice throws out of the 30 that it wants at any time.

Suppose you have within your set of 30 rolls the numbers 6-6 1-1 4-4 and 27 others and your opponent has 2-1 3-2 4-1 and 27 others.

If I give you the 6-6 as your first throw you get the perfect first throw. I give the other player 2-1, an awful throw. I then give you the 4-4 allowing you to unload your outside stack of 5 and your other stack of 5. I give the other player 3-2. At this point you've been handed the game. You have a huge initial start, your 2 back men are out of opponents quadrant and you have a nice wall built that is hemming opponent in your home quadrant.

All the dice rolls used were totally random but by picking and choosing when to assign them you can swing just about any game.

The algorithm wouldn't be particularly difficult. If system wants a player who is winning to get held up, and that player gets a blot knocked off and the weaker player only has the 6 point covered in his home quadrant then the algorithm just looks at the remaining available pre-rolled dice throws to see if there is a double 6 available. If there is, choose that, then the good player remains stuck on the bar.

This whole thing can be as simple or complicated as a programmer cares to make it. You can give a player a huge edge or a slight edge. All the time using true randomly generated numbers. This technique applies to just about any online game.

Generate the random numbers for dice or cards or whatever BEFORE the game starts and then allocate them as needed to make certain people win or lose and thereby maintain a level of control of balance on across the membership.

Again not saying this is happening here. Just giving examples of how sites can rig outcomes whilst keeping the numbers random.
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CaractacusPots
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Re: "dubious" luck

Post by CaractacusPots »

Interesting game just finished.

There were 69 dice throws in total in the match

We were given the following doubles

Me Opp
44 33
66 55
55 11
22 11
55 44
11 55
22 44
33 33
11
11


That's 18 doubles within 69 dice rolls.

The odds of a double coming up are 1 in 6

Statistically there should only have been 11 doubles but you wouldn't expect them in a single game, that 1-6 average would occur only over a number of games. 18 in one game?? Just lols
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Giordano Bruno 1974
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Joined: 28 April 2020, 19:56

Re: "dubious" luck

Post by Giordano Bruno 1974 »

Some people are just drawn to conspiracy theories. Really why would a board games website where no money is wagered and membership is free bother to rig games? How do you get people to program rigged games for free (and then keep their mouths shut)? Properly rigging a game takes a lot more work than just making a pseudo-random number generator.
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Giordano Bruno 1974
Posts: 225
Joined: 28 April 2020, 19:56

Re: "dubious" luck

Post by Giordano Bruno 1974 »

CaractacusPots wrote: 01 September 2020, 22:03 That's 18 doubles within 69 dice rolls.

The odds of a double coming up are 1 in 6

Statistically there should only have been 11 doubles but you wouldn't expect them in a single game, that 1-6 average would occur only over a number of games. 18 in one game?? Just lols
It's really not that improbable. I don't know why you are so amazed. On average you might have got 11 doubles but actually getting 11 is in itself improbable. More probable than 18 perhaps but there's not as much difference as you might imagine.
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sprockitz
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Joined: 23 October 2014, 02:22

Re: "dubious" luck

Post by sprockitz »

Giordano Bruno 1974 wrote: 01 September 2020, 23:59
CaractacusPots wrote: 01 September 2020, 22:03 That's 18 doubles within 69 dice rolls.

The odds of a double coming up are 1 in 6

Statistically there should only have been 11 doubles but you wouldn't expect them in a single game, that 1-6 average would occur only over a number of games. 18 in one game?? Just lols
It's really not that improbable. I don't know why you are so amazed. On average you might have got 11 doubles but actually getting 11 is in itself improbable. More probable than 18 perhaps but there's not as much difference as you might imagine.
In fact, you will get at least 18 doubles in a 69 roll game 3.1% of the time.

Probability of exactly 11 are 12.8% and probability of exactly 18 is 1.6%. If you got 55 doubles in a game of 69 rolls that would make me concerned, but 18 should be happening on a pretty regular basis.
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