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[euklid314]

Please note that my last post is also a reply to Caractatus. I do not know how to city a posting...

[N_Faker]

Please note that my last post is also a reply to Caractatus. I do not know how to city a posting...

Click on the [“] symbol to the upper right corner of the post.

[CaractacusPots]

Not your maths is off but your expectations about probabilities.

Yep so back to square one again. We need to be able to check a large sample size of BG game histories but there's no easy practical way to do that as far as I can see. With the online poker sites i had to enlist the help of a number of other players who all emailed me a big chunk of their hand history data. That way I acquired 100,000s of hands to crunch.

What is needed here is a script run by dev's against the history logs of all players for say all BG games played in 2020. Ideally pre-filtered to only include the text lines with the word "rolls" otherwise the file would be enormous. Might still be enormous even then. Any takers?

[Giordano Bruno 1974]

Not your maths is off but your expectations about probabilities.

Yep so back to square one again. We need to be able to check a large sample size of BG game histories but there's no easy practical way to do that as far as I can see. With the online poker sites i had to enlist the help of a number of other players who all emailed me a big chunk of their hand history data. That way I acquired 100,000s of hands to crunch.

What is needed here is a script run by dev's against the history logs of all players for say all BG games played in 2020. Ideally pre-filtered to only include the text lines with the word "rolls" otherwise the file would be enormous. Might still be enormous even then. Any takers?

You could start by calculating the expected standard deviation and comparing it to the exact standard deviation.

[CaractacusPots]

And yet more games with 3 consecutive dice throws

51, 51, 51 for me

Opp was given 3 same throws consecutively in another game

For an event that should happen on average 1 in 324 times it's already happened around 6 times in 59 games

[euklid314]

And yet more games with 3 consecutive dice throws

51, 51, 51 for me

Opp was given 3 same throws consecutively in another game

For an event that should happen on average 1 in 324 times it's already happened around 6 times in 59 games

Please note that a game consists of several of your moves. In your move 1,2,3 you can roll the same number, in moves 2,3,4 it could happen again, and so forth. If you count an average 30-40 moves per game, then you have 28-38 possible occurrences in one game. Multiplied by 59 games you have 2000-2500 situations where 3 consecutive equal rolls may occur (counting only your throws).

[Jest Phulin]

For an event that should happen on average 1 in 324 times it's already happened around 6 times in 59 games

There are about 50 rolls in a game (25 for each player), so this should happen on average once every 6-7 games. Your complaint of it happening far more often than it should doesn't match with the math. You should have complained that it isn't happening enough.

Looking at the data you provided on doubles: there are 174 doubles in 1113 total rolls, or 15.6% So within 1% of expected value which is reasonable for a sample of this size.

With the online poker sites i had to enlist the help of a number of other players who all emailed me a big chunk of their hand history data. That way I acquired 100,000s of hands to crunch.

BGA already has a method of any player to replay any game, something I doubt the online poker site had. And, the rest of your post exactly describes how any player (IE, you) can gather the data you want.

[CaractacusPots]

BGA already has a method of any player to replay any game, something I doubt the online poker site had.

You'd be wrong. All major poker sites maintain full logs of all your games automatically on your own hard drive so you can analyse the data at your convenience. There are also numerous software apps that have been developed that can directly import all the log files very simply and then shows the data in a variety of ways. Instances of cards held, instances of flushes, river river outcomes etc etc. So on that score the poker sites do well by providing that history in one place where all your hands can then be easily imported into some piece of software.

But for most people, they will never acquire the huge number of hands that would be needed for statistical analysis. You need many 100,000s of hands preferably millions in order to assess the randomness.

Here on BGA I can't see a similar function.

I can see that I can review and replay any singular game I have played but that's nothing remotely like having all the game rolls recorded in a log file.

It's possible I have missed a facility if one exists

But being only able to open up one game at a time, then cut and paste all the text from the game, then paste it into some program I develop is pretty prohibitive TBH.

What is needed imo is a very simply export function that will export all your selected game rolls into a CSV file. Either for all games played or for the specific games specified via a set of filters such as the date range filtering for game replays.

I think it would be in your interests to provide such an export facility because there will always be people claiming that the random number generation is off and having access to all the data is the easiest way to pacify those who can program and do their own analysis.

If there is such a bulk export facility here then my apologies and please point me to it.

[Covidamus]

true !! too much doubles many times . In real game tis is not like this.
I used to play Bgm for 60 years and never i saw this !!
we don't need to have this kind of game.
Please do something to change it (if you can).
thank you

[CaractacusPots]

And another game is stolen away



Once again I have opponent pawned within a handful of moves. I have a near perfect wall, my home quad has 5 primes blocked off and I've knocked off opponent to the bar. I will likely fill the open 2 point in the next 2-3 moves and then waltz home. But the system has other ideas !

Opponent has just a 1 in 3 chance to roll a 2 to get back on.

His first roll is 3 3

His next roll is 2 3, and back on the board he goes
I knock him off again and he gets straight back on with 2 6
I knock him off again he gets gets straight back on with 2 3
I knock him off again he gets 4 5 so his one man stays on the bar
I knock off another blot he has left open so now he has 2 men on the bar
He rolls 2 1 and gets one man straight back on
He rolls 2 1 again and gets second man on the bar

This is just nonsense sorry.

He should throw a 2 to get back on 1 time in every 3

Out of 7 attempts to do so he succeeds 5 times.

Consequently I go from a totally winning position to losing.