Dice Algorithm inBackgammon Seriously Flawed

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Romain672
Posts: 1348
Joined: 05 April 2016, 13:53

Re: Dice Algorithm inBackgammon Seriously Flawed

Post by Romain672 »

CaractacusPots wrote: 04 September 2020, 18:26But on many sites the throws are generated BEFORE the games actually start or in card games like poker the cards are all generated before the hand begins. That means systems can then allocate those random dice throws or cards at any point in the game as required. If you have a genuine 6-6 throw in your set of randomly generated throws you could be given it in the first move (for a great solid start) or at the point you are knocked off and opponent only has the 6pt blocked.
[...]
In the end it is what it is. Every gaming site imo balances outcomes to prevent strong players dominating newbies and weaker players too much. Very especially in online gambling sites like poker and so on.
Do you really think if these site was helping the newbies, the website would be that popular?
When there is money on the line, you can be sure some people did some statistics. And if something was wrong, it would have been discovered.
Once you see something not normal, it's pretty easy to do some stats around it. Like if what you said was true, you could after each turn choose to either no taking the next roll in your statistics, or if you think the game is against you, take all the remaining rolls in your statistics. But you need to decide to take the roll (or not) before launching them. And here, you will get what you want.
I really advice you to do that. Instead of abandonning your game, just start to count the remaining roll. Once you will get ~100 you will get an approximation which could change your mind (but it's not enough to take conclusions).
But again I insist, don't cheat. Decide before rolling the dice to either count the remaining roll or to not count them. And don't change that after the rolls. And take only the next games, not the previous ones.
CaractacusPots wrote: 04 September 2020, 18:26Google Play store is absolutely replete with Backgammon apps and every one of them has player reviews all complaining of the same rigged re-balancing that goes on to try and keep everyone happy. There are no exceptions.
It's just because of the factors writed more up.
I can add one more if you want, people who think the game is fine and balanced will said nothing. People who get lucky will think they played well and will said nothing. People who get unlucky will see that, and will complain in review.

For the same reason, if you do what I writed more up, you will complain if you got bad results, but be silence if you got good ones. Or at least it's more likely. And so again, you will see only complains in the forum.

edit: To be simple, count the number of double, the average is 16,7/100.
Just did 256 simulations. I got 1/1/1/6/5/13/25/23/30/19/*30*/29/17/18/14/11/6/4/1/2 results for 7/8/9/10/11/12/13/14/15/16/*17*/18/19/20/21/22/23/24/25/26 doubles.
Which gave a range between 11 and 23 (inclued) doubles 93,75% of the time. So yeah, it's not unlikely you got only 11 doubles. And yet, there is still 6,25% chance to get lower than 11 or higher than 23.
And 74,6% (3chance out of 4) to be in range between 13 and 20.
Biri biri
Posts: 1
Joined: 08 January 2021, 22:43

Re: Dice Algorithm inBackgammon Seriously Flawed

Post by Biri biri »

I lost, at least 20 games the following way:
Im "forced" to leave on single piece, and then the other player gets whatever he need to take it, and then he make doubles, and from that point i lose the game, cause I cant take the chip off, even if im with 20 or more points ahead before this takes place. Is just annoying as hell, and my opponents gets surprised every time I predict this before it happens. Im sick of this. Anyone noticed the same "glitch" taking place?
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