Which BGA games are most driven by luck?

[ChiefPointThief]

Blackjack can’t apply. You can be kicked out of casinos for being too good.

With counting cards you have an edge of about 2%. If a game has a 52% winrate for someone playing perfect strategy I'd say that's heavily luck based.

I am not a blackjack player. I don't know how accurate this statistic is but it is misleading either way. The object to is obtain the most money/chips. Not win the most games. So even if you are losing 48% of hands you wager more when it is more likely that your bet will succeed.

You have to consider the number of players and different variants too. 6nimmt! and Ticket to Ride can be heavily luck-dependent at higher player counts, but they are skill driven at lower player counts. There are also Tactic, Logic and Pro variants of 6nimmt!, that minimize luck factor even more.

This applies to papayoo as well. At 3-4 players it is a strategic trick taking game. The higher you go from there it becomes more of a free for all party game.

The name in Lucky Numbers seems to be giving itself away here. It's top player ratings align with other luck-based games at low numbers like the 400s despite having a lot of activity. The luck bar of 4 is likely well-deserved here. Not the worst offender out there, but not a very skillful look. Ticket to Ride, on the other hand, has ratings of 700+, which doesn't happen in heavily luck-based games, as the variance would destroy the top player's ratings too much. I suspect there's a similar issue with your evaluation of Living Forest given there's even a couple of 700s making the top there as well.

When two players share the same knowledge of what it takes to win then luck based games are 50/50 but this is why you have lucky numbers player in the 300s+ and others in the 100s. Two 350 players will be 50/50 but that may be closer to 75/25 against a 100s player. The bruno variant and michaels setup also add a small level of skill.
As a living forest player I can agree it shouldn't be mentioned in this topic. I understand you can have a bad draw from time to time but the game is filled with strategies. I'm a low 400s player and have played against experts that are experts not because they got lucky more but they are just better players.

[ErikLevin]

From the ones I know.

1. Poker Dice. By far. This is quite close to "roll 50 dice and see who wins" that you mention.
2. Fluxx and Star Fluxx.
3. Dungeon Roll - random heroes, not mirror match.
4. Texas Hold'em - Very Fast blinds increase, and/or Fixed to 5 hands.

[fiscused]

I think the ay to measure this could be by how well you need to know the game before it's all luck. For example, you can play Yahtzee badly and lose. But if all players know what they are doing, it's all luck. Also, you can play badly, not knowing what you are doing, and still beat an experienced player.

[ufm]

Nobody has mentioned Farkle in this post yet...

[Ceaseless]

When two players share the same knowledge of what it takes to win then luck based games are 50/50 but this is why you have lucky numbers player in the 300s+ and others in the 100s. Two 350 players will be 50/50 but that may be closer to 75/25 against a 100s player. The bruno variant and michaels setup also add a small level of skill.

100s are a rating you can't drop below. Avoiding a coin flip against those players is a fairly low bar for skill. Not nonexistent, but unimpressive.

[ChiefPointThief]

When two players share the same knowledge of what it takes to win then luck based games are 50/50 but this is why you have lucky numbers player in the 300s+ and others in the 100s. Two 350 players will be 50/50 but that may be closer to 75/25 against a 100s player. The bruno variant and michaels setup also add a small level of skill.

100s are a rating you can't drop below. Avoiding a coin flip against those players is a fairly low bar for skill. Not nonexistent, but unimpressive.

Ok. Lets look at two games. Can't Stop and Lucky Numbers. In can't stop I've got as high as 320s which was good for somewhere in the top 100. I used to do the daily tournaments. There has been times when in one day I plummeted from 300s to 100. Then the next day I may win 12/15. Now lets look at lucky numbers. I've peeked at 420 which at the time was somewhere in the top 20. I've played over 200 games and haven't plummeted well below 300. Nevermind all the way down to 100. Why? Because there is some level of skill involved in lucky numbers. I'm never losing 12-15 games in lucky numbers like I can in can't stop especially not playing lower elo players.

Nobody has mentioned Farkle in this post yet...

Haven't played. Honestly you can throw a lot of dice games into this category. I was extremely surprised when I read the rules for Martian dice and learned there is only one alien per die. My rolls suggested there were 2 or 3 Can't win that game to save my life. Luck. But while there is a luck factor w/ lucky numbers I wouldn't put it in the same category as Martian dice and piraten kapern.

[Ceaseless]

When two players share the same knowledge of what it takes to win then luck based games are 50/50 but this is why you have lucky numbers player in the 300s+ and others in the 100s. Two 350 players will be 50/50 but that may be closer to 75/25 against a 100s player. The bruno variant and michaels setup also add a small level of skill.

100s are a rating you can't drop below. Avoiding a coin flip against those players is a fairly low bar for skill. Not nonexistent, but unimpressive.

Ok. Lets look at two games. Can't Stop and Lucky Numbers. In can't stop I've got as high as 320s which was good for somewhere in the top 100. I used to do the daily tournaments. There has been times when in one day I plummeted from 300s to 100. Then the next day I may win 12/15. Now lets look at lucky numbers. I've peeked at 420 which at the time was somewhere in the top 20. I've played over 200 games and haven't plummeted well below 300. Nevermind all the way down to 100. Why? Because there is some level of skill involved in lucky numbers. I'm never losing 12-15 games in lucky numbers like I can in can't stop especially not playing lower elo players.

Like I said before, I'm not saying the game has no skill, just nothing great. If you want to say Can't Stop has less skill I have no objections in either direction, that game is another known luckfest. I couldn't tell you what the luck tiers are for games like Lucky Numbers and Can't Stop, where low numbers like 300 actually make it in the top 100 despite having an active playerbase.

[ufm]

I was extremely surprised when I read the rules for Martian dice and learned there is only one alien per die.

Where did you read that? There are 2 death rays per die. Even the official rulebook says so.

[ChiefPointThief]

I was extremely surprised when I read the rules for Martian dice and learned there is only one alien per die.

Where did you read that? There are 2 death rays per die. Even the official rulebook says so.

I meant tanks. There is 1 tank on each die. I roll too many tanks. (Sigh)

[ChiefPointThief]

100s are a rating you can't drop below. Avoiding a coin flip against those players is a fairly low bar for skill. Not nonexistent, but unimpressive.

Ok. Lets look at two games. Can't Stop and Lucky Numbers. In can't stop I've got as high as 320s which was good for somewhere in the top 100. I used to do the daily tournaments. There has been times when in one day I plummeted from 300s to 100. Then the next day I may win 12/15. Now lets look at lucky numbers. I've peeked at 420 which at the time was somewhere in the top 20. I've played over 200 games and haven't plummeted well below 300. Nevermind all the way down to 100. Why? Because there is some level of skill involved in lucky numbers. I'm never losing 12-15 games in lucky numbers like I can in can't stop especially not playing lower elo players.

Like I said before, I'm not saying the game has no skill, just nothing great. If you want to say Can't Stop has less skill I have no objections in either direction, that game is another known luckfest. I couldn't tell you what the luck tiers are for games like Lucky Numbers and Can't Stop, where low numbers like 300 actually make it in the top 100 despite having an active playerbase.

Understood. But what op asked for was games that are basically a coin flip and has nothing to do with your decisions. If I can have a 70%+ winrate over 90%+ of the lucky number players based off of my decisions than it doesn’t apply to what op was asking for. Another game Cigma mentioned was captain flip. You get a tile and place it on your board or flip it. Yes it is a luck base game but I managed to win 7 of 9 games. Most likely I made some decisions that increase my win % above 50%.

Some classic board games like chutes and ladders, trouble, candyland are some examples of games that fits op criteria.