Board Game Arena

mizzou95 wrote: ↑12 September 2026, 07:13 Since I posted about a month ago, my doubles % in COB has actually gotten WORSE! I now have a 17.25% double rate over almost 90000 rolls in 3900 games. Statistically the chance of this is beyond ridiculous and is costing me a lot of games. I realize there are streaks of bad luck but COME ON. The actual statistical chance is 1 in 628259, or .000157%. Come on Dave, gimme a break...

Chill out.

First of all, you cannot possibly know that you have a double rate of 17.25 % over 3900 games. When you view your stats, it only shows the average stats of your most recent 500 games.

Second, that fact alone could explain some of the unusual numbers. People are thinking "Oh, these are my stats in ten thousand games, and the probability of this occurring over a stretch of ten thousand games is 0.00000000000000000001 % .... "

FrankJones wrote: ↑12 September 2026, 14:06 First of all, you cannot possibly know that you have a double rate of 17.25 % over 3900 games. When you view your stats, it only shows the average stats of your most recent 500 games.

You say this as if it was common knowledge. But I hear it for the first time. This could easily explain some odd numbers. But where did you find this Info? I can't find this in the FAQ and also it's not mentioned in the statistics table (which I think it really should be if it is the case!)

mizzou95 wrote: ↑12 September 2026, 07:13 Since I posted about a month ago, my doubles % in COB has actually gotten WORSE! I now have a 17.25% double rate over almost 90000 rolls in 3900 games. Statistically the chance of this is beyond ridiculous and is costing me a lot of games. I realize there are streaks of bad luck but COME ON. The actual statistical chance is 1 in 628259, or .000157%. Come on Dave, gimme a break...

As long as it's not 0, it's still possible. Therefore it will happen and is no proof for rigged dice.