Points vs. bonus cards: How to choose which bird to play?

[Cos-]

Say you're near the end of the game, in round 4, and you're going to be able to play either a high-points bird or a bird with a little bit fewer points but that draws two bonus cards - but you won't be able to play both of them. How do you decide?

If the difference in points is >4 I think it always makes more sense to play the higher points bird, but what if the difference is only 2 or 3 points?

Assume neither bird will help you complete a bonus card you already have.

[Ceaseless]

Try and remember what important bonuses could help you that you could actually achieve. The better your knowledge of the bonuses is the better an idea you have what kind of point values you could realistically hit. Also risk/reward. If you feel comfortable with the known point values you can get, just stick with the perfect knowledge play. If you're in a weak position you may just want to take the risk, as the known score is a likely fail anyways.

[Cos-]

Try and remember what important bonuses could help you that you could actually achieve. The better your knowledge of the bonuses is the better an idea you have what kind of point values you could realistically hit. Also risk/reward. If you feel comfortable with the known point values you can get, just stick with the perfect knowledge play. If you're in a weak position you may just want to take the risk, as the known score is a likely fail anyways.

Not sure what you mean by "the known score is a likely fail anyways"?

Since this question is about the end game, thinking about goals one could achieve doesn't sound applicable, but maybe you meant "think about which goals the birds you have already played may fit". But what do _you_ do in this situation? How do you make the choice?

[Ceaseless]

Try and remember what important bonuses could help you that you could actually achieve. The better your knowledge of the bonuses is the better an idea you have what kind of point values you could realistically hit. Also risk/reward. If you feel comfortable with the known point values you can get, just stick with the perfect knowledge play. If you're in a weak position you may just want to take the risk, as the known score is a likely fail anyways.

Not sure what you mean by "the known score is a likely fail anyways"?

Since this question is about the end game, thinking about goals one could achieve doesn't sound applicable, but maybe you meant "think about which goals the birds you have already played may fit". But what do _you_ do in this situation? How do you make the choice?

If you're losing by enough, the known points you'd get from the big bird would not likely be enough, hence the likely fail. So there's not much to lose in taking a chance for the higher score since that might be the only winning path anyways.

And yes, think about the bonuses you'd already achieved that may still be up for draws, or those you're close enough to that you could hit, maybe you just needed a lay eggs turn etc. Seeing how many/what bonuses you could hit can help determine if the bonus grabbing effect is a solid bet or not.

[Bitunjac]

Also, you may want to consider what bird cards you have already played to see if there is a possible bonus card that would score you enough points. If you've got, say, a lot of one type of nest and getting that bonus card would give you 6 or 8 points, and that may be enough to make a difference then it might be worth going for. Another good bonus possibility is if you have birds with a lot of a certain type of food such as cherries (where 4 cherry cards gives you 7 points) or rodents or fish,