Does Catan increase ELO?

[Rufasu]

This is a genuine question.
Catan decreases a lot of ELO when it loses.
But when you win, it hardly increases.
In addition to that, there are many times when you lose because your dice don't roll.
As a result, ELO is decreasing rapidly.
Many people have a very large ELO, but how do they increase it?
I would like to know how they increase their ELO in this game where luck plays a large part.

[Esquire Pat]

See the FAQ for an explanation on the ELO-calculation: https://boardgamearena.com/faq?anchor=faq_account_elo
ELO does not take luck into account. In other words: part of your ELO going up or down in a game is because of luck, but in the long run your skill will determine if your ELO goes up or down.

[Rufasu]

Thanks for the reply.
However, the actual talking catan can't do anything without the dice.
And it happens every day that the dice don't show up.
I am more often than not, but maybe everyone else is?

[euklid314]

Just watch YouTube videos from very good players (e.g. search for DandyDrew on YouTube). You will be surprised how systematically they analyze the board and what plans they make before even placing the first settlement. And it is fascinating how those top players react if adversity stikes (e.g. if they are blocked from a spot they wanted to reach or if their numbers do not appear as often as they would like). In such cases they might perhaps not win but they will still be close to a win and they will fight for 2nd place.

Of course the dice are always important but if you play close to optimally then you maximize the possibility that you can use the dice numbers that appear in a positive way for your own development. You can not control which dice are rolled but you can set up a position that makes the best out of most possible rolls. It is well possible to win 50% of all games even if you play 4-player games exclusively.

[Jellby]

It is well possible to win 50% of all games even if you play 4-player games exclusively.

Only if you don't play against 3 other people who also win 50% of their games

[euklid314]

It is well possible to win 50% of all games even if you play 4-player games exclusively.

Only if you don't play against 3 other people who also win 50% of their games

Good point, haha.

Of course I meant a top player against average, random players on BGA (and I am not such a top player, I have a win rate of over 50% but with a lot of 3-player games included). I just wanted to stress the fact that a top player will surely lose quite some games but he will be winning *way* more games than one would believe for such a dice driven game.

[Rufasu]

Is there a lot of ELO decrease when you lose?
If I win, I lose about 15 points, and if I lose, I lose 20 points.
Even if you finish second, you lose about 10 points.
In addition, no matter how much you strategize, you often can't do anything because the dice don't show up.
It is a wonder that the winning rate is over 50%.

[euklid314]

You have a win rate of approx. 39%, i.e., you win significantly more than your opponents. Congrats!

You oscillate around 200 ELO and your opponents have on average less than 200 ELO - probably 150 ELO on average. Thus you are expected to win more than average (which you do) to keep your ELO at 200. Thus you lose more points for a single loss than you gain for a single win. Because you win more than you lose you stay at 200 ELO. If you would play against stronger opponents it would be the other way round. You would gain 20 points for a win and lose only 10 points for a loss (e.g. against a player of strength 350 ELO).

If you want to increase your ELO you have to win more against the same opponents or win the same percentage against stronger opponents. Both is only possible by improving the play style: Watch other, stronger players and listen to their thoughts. It is easy because many livestream their games with live comments on YouTube. You will not improve by having a lucky streak of the dice but only by improving strategy and tactics!

[Rufasu]

Thank you.
I had never heard of ELO until a few days ago and it occurred to me to write a question.
It is refreshing to know how ELO works.