How is player/turn order determined

[NiffTheNerd]

How is player/turn order determined? I've played 14 games of Catan so far and from what I remember I've been the last player to place my starting settlements for 12-13 of those games. Sometimes being last is an advantage, but I've found myself getting more frustrated by the position because more often than not by the time it's my turn the places I wanted to place my starting settlements have been taken and I have to come up with another strategy that I like less. It clearly isn't determined randomly, so how is the order determined?

[Jellby]

Let's see...

https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=581777398 2/3
https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=582209767 3/3
https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=583028475 3/3
https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=583064678 2/4
https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=583282569 3/3
https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=583304845 4/4
https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=583496581 2/3
https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=583928555 3/3
https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=584104868 3/3
https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=584180204 3/3
https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=584264036 3/3
https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=584289762 3/3
https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=584385127 3/3
https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=584589082 3/3

You're slightly off, you've been last in 11 out of 14 games, and never first. That seems unlucky, but maybe not as much as you think. The probability of not being first in any of those games is around 1 in 230. So 1 of every 230 players would come here and complain. The probability of actually being last in so many of them is indeed lower, but the playing order should be random anyway. (The probability of being last in 12 consecutive 3-player games is around 1 in half a million, but you're not there yet.) I disagree with "it clearly isn't determined randomly", an unlikely event doesn't prove it's not random.

[Romain672]

It's really likely you just remember badly, and you are first or second more often.
Let's see: 323 323 333 332 43

Uh that was right.
I did 10k simulations, 4 of them were as unlucky or more unlucky than you (sum of starting positions). So it's 0.04% .

Just play more, look like you was just extremely unlucky

[NiffTheNerd]

Let's see...

https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=581777398 2/3
https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=582209767 3/3
https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=583028475 3/3
https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=583064678 2/4
https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=583282569 3/3
https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=583304845 4/4
https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=583496581 2/3
https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=583928555 3/3
https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=584104868 3/3
https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=584180204 3/3
https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=584264036 3/3
https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=584289762 3/3
https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=584385127 3/3
https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=584589082 3/3

You're slightly off, you've been last in 11 out of 14 games, and never first. That seems unlucky, but maybe not as much as you think. The probability of not being first in any of those games is around 1 in 230. So 1 of every 230 players would come here and complain. The probability of actually being last in so many of them is indeed lower, but the playing order should be random anyway. (The probability of being last in 12 consecutive 3-player games is around 1 in half a million, but you're not there yet.) I disagree with "it clearly isn't determined randomly", an unlikely event doesn't prove it's not random.

Didn't realize you could go back and look at the game log like that, thank you for sharing that info!

And thanks for reminding me that being unlucky doesn't mean that something isn't random. I'm sorry if it sounded like I was complaining, I was just genuinely curious and I guess some of my frustration seeped in. I assumed it was random, but from my experience it seemed incredibly unlikely (as you pointed out) so I wanted to check if there was some other mechanism at play (like ELO ranking or being a premium player).

It's really likely you just remember badly, and you are first or second more often.
Let's see: 323 323 333 332 43

Uh that was right.
I did 10k simulations, 4 of them were as unlucky or more unlucky than you (sum of starting positions). So it's 0.04% .

Just play more, look like you was just extremely unlucky

Haha this response was great!

Thanks y'all for confirming I have bad luck, hopefully I'll get more variety in my placements in the future.

[Mathew5000]

The probability of not being first in any of those games is around 1 in 230.

You mean 1 in 292, right?

(2/3)^14 = 1 / 291.92926

Otherwise Jellby is correct, there's no reason to suspect that the turn order is anything other than random. (Except in the case where the game log at the start says "rematch with same players detected" or words to that effect, and rotates the previous turn order; see https://boardgamearena.com/bug?id=110152 ).

I am interested in opinions on whether it tends to be advantageous or not to go first in Catan. My impression is that in 4-player games, there's often a disadvantage to having first selection, because there's frequently two or three spots for a first settlement that are almost equally good. In 3-player games there's much less of a disadvantage to going first, because when you place your second settlement with only five other settlements placed on the board, you typically still have lots of good options.

Of course this depends on the exact placement of hexes at the particular table.

[Jellby]

The probability of not being first in any of those games is around 1 in 230.

You mean 1 in 292, right?

(2/3)^14 = 1 / 291.92926

No, because there are two 4-player games among those.

(2/3)^12 * (3/4)^2 = 1 / 230.66015625

[Mathew5000]

The probability of not being first in any of those games is around 1 in 230.

You mean 1 in 292, right?

(2/3)^14 = 1 / 291.92926

No, because there are two 4-player games among those.

(2/3)^12 * (3/4)^2 = 1 / 230.66015625

Oops, I didn't see that. Sorry, you're right.

[TheBestMrDudeMan]

Looks like we have a good "old-timey" 'math-off' happening here!

[Pedroxsimoes]

The order of play should be done by rolling the dice and the final result by the highest total number of dice.

There are maps that have first-to-play advantages.
The game was fair for everyone.