Draft is 50% luck

[Druha]

So far I find draft inferior to an expert mode. Though luck factor is not defining, it clearly affects the game too much. I find myself pretty often in a situation where 2 out of 3 cards are basically bricks(very weak characters like nemesis) and both players long for a good draw from a third card. Hermit in draft is a clear winner, giving a massive advantage to whoever is lucky enough to get him.

I was motivated to express the opinion after a loss where I felt absolutely hopeless after the draft. https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=670911636 If anyone has a suggestion on how to go about this game, I'd be glad to hear. The only possibility I find myself skipping is a possible fortress with a protector, so was that the only way?

[eloel]

Looks like you just fumbled that last turn.

If your last turn you played this:
https://imgur.com/Nh4L5Au

I think you were winning on your next turn.

[Druha]

Looks like you just fumbled that last turn.

If your last turn you played this:
https://imgur.com/Nh4L5Au

I think you were winning on your next turn.

Maybe I did fumble, that game was real-time. But it still sounds infinitely difficult to win as black to me.

To your response, after the following sequence I'm pretty sure black inevitably loses https://imgur.com/a/Zi3Viu0

[Y O D]

I think this was the optimal move to keep defensive and offensive options. https://ibb.co/gbMnH8Qk

Anyway, yes, normal mode can be frustrating some time, the opponent team is crazy, yours is pretty weak, especially against bruiser hermit

[MoriusUshiba]

The normal mode isn't 50% luck...
look different last tournament , there are sames players who won tournaments,
for exemple i have 91% of winrate and i play exclusively in normal mode , sometimes i loose but it's not only the draft cause.
if the game depend of the draft my winrate will be around 50%

[Druha]

Winrate does not matter, I never said normal mode is a pure 100% luck, only that it's 50% luck dependent. People win in high-variance games(like poker) and maintain a good winrate against less skilled opponents, but in the scope of a single "Leaders" match with a bad draft your game will be a pretty hopeless miserable experience.

[Druha]

I think a good comparison would be that I can reliably win against noobs in chess with bishop odds, but even stockfish won't beat a reasonable FM with those odds. Even though in a fair game of chess stockfish would beat any human player 10/10 games