Why did I lose this game? What steps did I do wrong?

[Archisian]

I've been on a set of losing streaks, dropping over 100 ELO. Been losing to low levels. I'm livid. I don't understand how I've been losing. I have went back to the replays over and over again and I still can't understand how I lost. I calculated that those were the best options that I had, and yet I still lost. What's going on? What am I not seeing?

https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=830874605

[illy831]

Streaks happen to everyone. I wouldn't put too much weight on that. Keep playing and you'll get a good run too.

My thoughts though undoubtedly you will get better feedback.

--Beginning--
Your starting hand is rough: no easy food bird, no cheap draw birds, and the only practical bonus option isn't friendly to complete. I wouldn't be pleased with this draw at all as I don't see a very nice way to solve it. That said, I would probably: keep Spoonbill, Shoveler, and Woodpecker: two of the minimum four large birds you'll need, and an extra bonus. The aim is to play the Shoveler early so that you can start drawing your way out of this, and the woodpecker might help with that all on its own. You will have to take a turn just to gain food, unfortunately. I'd also draw the Condor as you did immediately, with the idea to play it as the second forest bird, and accelerating the Shoveler (and maybe even the Spoonbill).

--Round One Start --
With what you kept, I agree with Condor in the water, as that will be your way to draw birds soon. However, I don't like that you spent a turn to lay just 1 egg because you didn't have a second slot. Laying only 2 eggs is already a bummer, and getting to two forest birds faster isn't worth it. You can play Condor, Woodpecker, and then lay eggs, and then draw two birds by sacrificing an egg. Now, if you have spare birds, you can gain two food anyway by trading a spare card. If you don't, the Woodpecker's ability can get you a second food if the timing's right, and that's not bad.

For the 1st round EOR goal, it's not that important, and you would have chances later to add a 2nd forest bird anyway if you chose

Ruby-crowned kinglet: for me it would have been reserved for playing the 3rd and 4th forest birds later on. A faster second forest bird, preferably one with some kind of ability, would take priority.

--Round One End--
The photographer bonus you drew was a nice stroke of luck as you managed to draw two very usable birds that matched both your bonuses.

In the final turn, you drew the fish crow which was nice. I would have also taken Cooper's Hawk, a very low-cost path towards completing your large bird bonus. You'd have seven birds and need one more large bird and two more color-named birds. You should be able to manage that especially if a single bird can fulfill both categories.

--Round Two--
I would have given strong consideration to playing Heron first and then grabbing Black-necked Stilt (large bird, photographer) especially after your opponent ignored it. In terms of order, you don't need to play the crow until later. The Dickcissel could be good for Round 3 as well (aided by the extra cards from your Stilt, and made more accessible to play by your Woodpecker). But, neither it nor the bunting do anything for your bonuses so weigh that accordingly. With the Stilt, playing it fast could get you some needed cards (and let you draw 3 cards the next time you draw).

The other thing to consider is that your opponent at this point does not have any birds in the water and thus no way to draw birds. They picked up the Stilt and it may have been worthwhile to deny them that.

--Round Three--
Your opponent has a predator bird in the forest, and the Black Vulture is there to take. That single bird costs no food, one egg, and would put you one bird away from each of your bonuses. I'm not sure what you saw in the Grasshopper Sparrow instead. I think this ends up being a mistake because you can only afford to use the Draw power so many times, and using it in this way is going to leave you needing to use it even more to have a chance to finish either bonus.

At this point your opponent has 8 star nest slots so winning either of the last two round goals is probably out of reach. What you can do instead is get points from birds, brown powers, or bonuses. Your crow is a star in that it will help you play whatever nice birds you want, but you *have* to be economical about your draws. The vulture by the way would have helped, as it might have given you usable passive food income a couple of times.

You spend the last part of this round using your crow in order to play the Bunting. The Bunting gives you another bonus but doesn't help you complete either of your two current ones (and playing it probably prevents you from having the chance to do either of those). It costs three food and gives you three points only outside of the bonus card, which could be good or really bad. I don't think it was the bird to chase after at this point, and it's not clear if it would be worth playing even in the next round.

In the last turn of the round, you used the crow to gain a food you didn't need, and that food was a worm (which the opponent's Eastern Phoebe might give you for free anyway). Maybe an extra draw somewhere in there could have given you clarity on what to use the crow for.

--Round Four--
At this point, you have 5 turns left, and no chance to complete either bonus. I'm not sure what drawing the Thrush is going to do — it's six points counting the egg cost without considering its power, which you won't make use of anyway, and you need to get more food to play it. So I think you're in a tough spot. You can play the bunting and lay eggs, but you don't really have the slots to do that. I think earlier draws and different birds would have been warranted. In particular, the two sparrows in your meadow don't have enough slots to make them worthwhile, and the extra egg-laying ability isn't helping when you have limited slots. Knowing that, your investments should have come outside the meadow.

Thinking through your position so far, I think you have been hampered by not having a third water bird earlier. You have a situation from the beginning of the game that you needed to be able to draw your way out of, but you could only draw two birds at a time. A third water bird lets you draw three at minimum. It doesn't help that you didn't encounter a purple martin, barn swallow, etc, something that might have let you cycle birds while laying eggs.

--Finish--
That said, I still would not have conceded. You are probably lost, but you might learn more from seeing what your final score is as well as your opponent's.

Your opponent didn't play too well in my estimation, but I didn't see their replay. They started with a chipping sparrow but played it in the meadow instead of the forest in order to do a triple play later. Not worth it. They got good fortune with the Bell's Vireo and Eastern Phoebe (->White-Faced Ibis) and with setting themselves up to easily win the last two round goals. They also had help from you in being able to get Black-Necked Stilt to address a serious weakness mid-game. However, I'm not sure they were headed for a super high score either.

--In conclusion--

TL;DR — you don't always need to have serious bird-drawing ability, but in circumstances where you do, it's wise to invest in it early. You invested in a double-forest bird play instead and essentially paid the costs from there. But that's easy to see in hindsight and I regularly have the experience of a game spinning out of control because of choices I only retroactively realize were poor. Other times, it'll work out.

[Archisian]

Streaks happen to everyone. I wouldn't put too much weight on that. Keep playing and you'll get a good run too.

My thoughts though undoubtedly you will get better feedback.

--Beginning--
Your starting hand is rough: no easy food bird, no cheap draw birds, and the only practical bonus option isn't friendly to complete. I wouldn't be pleased with this draw at all as I don't see a very nice way to solve it. That said, I would probably: keep Spoonbill, Shoveler, and Woodpecker: two of the minimum four large birds you'll need, and an extra bonus. The aim is to play the Shoveler early so that you can start drawing your way out of this, and the woodpecker might help with that all on its own. You will have to take a turn just to gain food, unfortunately. I'd also draw the Condor as you did immediately, with the idea to play it as the second forest bird, and accelerating the Shoveler (and maybe even the Spoonbill).

--Round One Start --
With what you kept, I agree with Condor in the water, as that will be your way to draw birds soon. However, I don't like that you spent a turn to lay just 1 egg because you didn't have a second slot. Laying only 2 eggs is already a bummer, and getting to two forest birds faster isn't worth it. You can play Condor, Woodpecker, and then lay eggs, and then draw two birds by sacrificing an egg. Now, if you have spare birds, you can gain two food anyway by trading a spare card. If you don't, the Woodpecker's ability can get you a second food if the timing's right, and that's not bad.

For the 1st round EOR goal, it's not that important, and you would have chances later to add a 2nd forest bird anyway if you chose

Ruby-crowned kinglet: for me it would have been reserved for playing the 3rd and 4th forest birds later on. A faster second forest bird, preferably one with some kind of ability, would take priority.

--Round One End--
The photographer bonus you drew was a nice stroke of luck as you managed to draw two very usable birds that matched both your bonuses.

In the final turn, you drew the fish crow which was nice. I would have also taken Cooper's Hawk, a very low-cost path towards completing your large bird bonus. You'd have seven birds and need one more large bird and two more color-named birds. You should be able to manage that especially if a single bird can fulfill both categories.

--Round Two--
I would have given strong consideration to playing Heron first and then grabbing Black-necked Stilt (large bird, photographer) especially after your opponent ignored it. In terms of order, you don't need to play the crow until later. The Dickcissel could be good for Round 3 as well (aided by the extra cards from your Stilt, and made more accessible to play by your Woodpecker). But, neither it nor the bunting do anything for your bonuses so weigh that accordingly. With the Stilt, playing it fast could get you some needed cards (and let you draw 3 cards the next time you draw).

The other thing to consider is that your opponent at this point does not have any birds in the water and thus no way to draw birds. They picked up the Stilt and it may have been worthwhile to deny them that.

--Round Three--
Your opponent has a predator bird in the forest, and the Black Vulture is there to take. That single bird costs no food, one egg, and would put you one bird away from each of your bonuses. I'm not sure what you saw in the Grasshopper Sparrow instead. I think this ends up being a mistake because you can only afford to use the Draw power so many times, and using it in this way is going to leave you needing to use it even more to have a chance to finish either bonus.

At this point your opponent has 8 star nest slots so winning either of the last two round goals is probably out of reach. What you can do instead is get points from birds, brown powers, or bonuses. Your crow is a star in that it will help you play whatever nice birds you want, but you *have* to be economical about your draws. The vulture by the way would have helped, as it might have given you usable passive food income a couple of times.

You spend the last part of this round using your crow in order to play the Bunting. The Bunting gives you another bonus but doesn't help you complete either of your two current ones (and playing it probably prevents you from having the chance to do either of those). It costs three food and gives you three points only outside of the bonus card, which could be good or really bad. I don't think it was the bird to chase after at this point, and it's not clear if it would be worth playing even in the next round.

In the last turn of the round, you used the crow to gain a food you didn't need, and that food was a worm (which the opponent's Eastern Phoebe might give you for free anyway). Maybe an extra draw somewhere in there could have given you clarity on what to use the crow for.

--Round Four--
At this point, you have 5 turns left, and no chance to complete either bonus. I'm not sure what drawing the Thrush is going to do — it's six points counting the egg cost without considering its power, which you won't make use of anyway, and you need to get more food to play it. So I think you're in a tough spot. You can play the bunting and lay eggs, but you don't really have the slots to do that. I think earlier draws and different birds would have been warranted. In particular, the two sparrows in your meadow don't have enough slots to make them worthwhile, and the extra egg-laying ability isn't helping when you have limited slots. Knowing that, your investments should have come outside the meadow.

Thinking through your position so far, I think you have been hampered by not having a third water bird earlier. You have a situation from the beginning of the game that you needed to be able to draw your way out of, but you could only draw two birds at a time. A third water bird lets you draw three at minimum. It doesn't help that you didn't encounter a purple martin, barn swallow, etc, something that might have let you cycle birds while laying eggs.

--Finish--
That said, I still would not have conceded. You are probably lost, but you might learn more from seeing what your final score is as well as your opponent's.

Your opponent didn't play too well in my estimation, but I didn't see their replay. They started with a chipping sparrow but played it in the meadow instead of the forest in order to do a triple play later. Not worth it. They got good fortune with the Bell's Vireo and Eastern Phoebe (->White-Faced Ibis) and with setting themselves up to easily win the last two round goals. They also had help from you in being able to get Black-Necked Stilt to address a serious weakness mid-game. However, I'm not sure they were headed for a super high score either.

--In conclusion--

TL;DR — you don't always need to have serious bird-drawing ability, but in circumstances where you do, it's wise to invest in it early. You invested in a double-forest bird play instead and essentially paid the costs from there. But that's easy to see in hindsight and I regularly have the experience of a game spinning out of control because of choices I only retroactively realize were poor. Other times, it'll work out.

Thanks for the analysis. You're right, I probably should have played the woodpecker first and saved it for later. I mostly just didn't want to get buried deep by my opponent in the first round. For some reason, I always either lose the first round bonus or significantly struggle to even compete. I know there is the option to forgo it, but I've lost a lot of games where I totally just forgone the first round bonus.

And I agree that I think the point where I lost was when I didn't play the Heron and get the Black-necked Stilt at the beginning of Round 2. I think I was mostly too focused on worrying what cards they had that I lost sight of the end game.

[Fromper]

I didn't go through the whole game, just looked at your starting hand and first couple of turns. I agree that your starting hand wasn't very good. But that's all the more reason to keep the northern shoveler - it gives you additional card draw to try and find better stuff. I would have just kept that and the the ruby-crowned kinglet, and just assumed that with enough card draw, you'll find a second bird to put up top soon. Keep invertebrate, seed, and fruit, so you're just one seed short of putting out both of your starting birds.

First turn - grab the seed from the bird feeder before your opponent beats you to it. Getting the northern shoveler down immediately is more important than the condor.
Second turn - play the northern shoveler.
Third turn - lay eggs
Then draw cards 2-3 turns in a row and hope good stuff shows up. When it's convenient, put out the kinglet and a second bird in the forest, so you can start drawing food. Don't worry about the first round goal, unless it's convenient. Setting yourself up for the rest of the game is more important than rushing to get something mediocre on the table just for the early points.

As for streaks, I know the feeling. My rating was over 500 at one point, because of a good luck streak. Recently, I almost dropped all the way down to 300. Most of the time, I stay in the low-mid 400s, but lucky streaks (both good and bad) happen. My biggest thing is that sometimes I don't pay enough attention if I'm playing while tired, so I just need to recognize that and stop playing after the first loss, to keep the losing streak from getting worse.

[FrankJones]

I see two options for this bad starting hand.

1) Safer option: Keep the northern shoveler and the Ruby Crowned Kinglet. Keep grain, worm, cherry.

Turn 1:Draw the grain.
Turn 2: Play shoveler
Turn 3: lay eggs
Turn 4: draw cards and hope the condor is still there. And you can trade an egg for a second card. that's 4 turns.

Turn 5, play Ruby-crowned kinglet and Condor. Now, after 5 turns, you have 2 in the forest and one in the wetland, 10 bird points, at least a tie for the R1 goal and maybe a win, you'll either have two cards and one egg or, if you traded it for a card, you'll have three cards and no eggs. You have 2 large birds for your bonus card. You already have 3 birds in 5 turns, well positioned for the R2 goal. you have 5 spots for eggs on ground nests, with plenty of time to get more for the R3 goal. And you have a bowl nest with 3 egg capacity for the R4 goal.

All this in your first 5 turns! I like it. Oh, and you have a second bonus card, early, when you have more time to work toward it is desired. (And one of the trash bonus cards, breeding manager, is already gone.)

2) The gambling/risky option. Keep the roseate spoonbill and the Ruby crowned Kinglet.

Turn 1: play spoonbill
turn 2: lay eggs
turn 3: draw cards (hoping for the condor)
Turn 4: Gain any food that the Kinglet eats (very rare that the bird feeder would not have at least one of those 3 foods).
Turn 5: play the Kinglet and the condor.

Now after 5 turns, just like above, you have 2 in the forest and one in the wetland. You have 9 bird points instead of 10. You have an egg and no card, or, if you traded the egg, you'll have no egg and one card. Your progress toward the 4 goals is similar to scenario 1, but your progress toward the R3 goal is worse. And you have 2 cards toward large bird.

But, you have 3 bonus cards instead of 2.

I like to gamble with bonus cards. And I hate the northern shoveler. I hate a 3-food 7-point bird that gives everyone a card. Ig going with the northern shoveler option, I am drawing the Brewer's blackbird. With cards being handed out by the shoveler, I want that tuck-and-egg in my hand, not my opponent's.



So, those are the two paths I would choose from.

[FrankJones]

Okay, you kept the woodpecker. I think the is one of the worst cards in the game. 3 food for a 4-point bird that has an ability that can fail? That's terrible, in my opinion. (That annoying bird helped me lose my game I recently posted about). And it only holds 3 eggs, and it helps toward none of the end round goals or your bonus card.

I am curious to see what others say, but I think this is a blunder. Maybe it's just personal choice, but I'd rather draw a blind card and save a food than keep a bird I consider to be as weak as the woodpecker. And you kept neither water bird. What's the plan to get a bird in the wetland?

Turn 1, cold-drawing the condor when you had two water birds in your starting hand. I strongly dislike this play. I mean, once you didn't keep either water bird in your starting hand, I suppose you can justify this.

What's the plan? Condor in the wetland? That only holds 1 egg. How are you going to proceed? You need an egg and a food to play Ruby Kinglet and woodpecker in forest if that's your plan, and you're not in a good position to do that.


You could play the woodpecker in the wetland, using all your food, but if I'm your opponent, I would then take the grain from the feeder. That would ruin the presumed plan of laying eggs on the woodpecker in the wetland, then drawing birds to get cards and a grain to then play Kinglet-Condor in forest.

Okay, turn 2, you cold-draw a cherry. That's 2 actions in your first 2 turns in which you did an action that is undesirable. In both scenarios I described above, there was only one such action in the first 5 turns.

Still, no plan. you have the food to play your birds, but how do you plan to get the egg?

Your opponent kept FOUR cards, and then did two consecutive cold-draws of food. You should be winning this game every time.

Okay, you're going with Condor in the wetland. Now when you lay eggs to play your two forest birds, you get shorted one egg.

Your opponent had the Chipping Sparrow! He could have dropped that in the first on turn 1,and then gotten two eggs while he was gaining his food.

Okay. After your first 5 moves, you have 2 in the forest and one in the wetland, but only 7 bird points, NO cards, and NO eggs, and no food. I would say that compares very unfavorably to either of the two paths I recommended above. And you only have one large bird, one egg spot for ground nest eggs, and a useless cavity nest.

At this point in the game, in answer to your question of why you lost this game, I would answer, "your first 5 moves had a series of blunders". But you still are in better shape than your opponent, who has taken 4 turns to get one -single-food bird on the board and lay 3 eggs, despite that bird being a bird that lays an egg with its brown power.

hmmm. Now your opponent played two "play another bird" birds without actually using the second one's ability. Ouch. Surely that could have been avoided.

But then he takes your grain. Brutal. Did I mention how much I hate that red-headed woodpecker?

Green heron is good, helps with both bonus cards. Second wetland bird. Red-tailed Hawk, ALSO hits both bonus cards. ok, this is getting interesting.

ok, bad luck. Fish crow for your opponent. Good news for you, your opponent has no birds in the wetland. Oh, not only does he NOT take the fish crow, but he set up the bird feeder for you to do a reset and make a grain appear.

You didn't use an egg to get another card when you were grabbing the fish crow. I was glad to see that - you need that egg and I wouldn't risk it right now on a blind card draw.

So now, the plan is, in some sequence, get the Green heron in the wetland, and the fish crow and Hawk in the grassland.

Your opponent, who is still holding one of his 4 starting cards, now does a cold-draw of ..cooper's Hawk? At this point, if I am in your spot, I am emptying my bank account to wager it all on myself to win this game, despite the (in my opinion) early mistakes.

Wow. had he drawn blindly from the deck, he would have gotten the Barn Swallow.)

R2. Your opponent is hoarding food for some reason. He could have taken your grain. Probably should have.

Then your opponent ... lays eggs. umm. Shrug. No idea what's happening there.

Your opponent drew cooper's hawk, and now discarded the rodentologist bonus card. Not good for you. That means he kept a better one. Maybe food web expert.

R2 turn 4, I have no idea what the plan is drawing the painted bunting or american kestrel. How do those birds help with anything? I would have gained food with a full reroll, assuming to get a grain and a rat.

Opponent takes black necked stilt. I strongly believe heh as food web expert.

R2 turn 5, you .. lay eggs. Are you planning to lay eggs twice, spending two turns to get a total of 2 eggs and 2 rats for your hawk? Why? You went to all this trouble to get a forest setup that can gain 3 food. Granted, you need an egg to play the hawk, but ... what exactly was the rush to use your only egg to play the green Heron?

You could have waited on the Heron, gained food in the forest, played the Hawk in the grassland, and then your egg laying gets you an extra egg and an activation of a high-success predator.

Round 3. You're still not using the forest. You drew (intentionally) 3 birds costing 6 total food. And yet you're still using the grassland. Is your plan to run your grassland 6 times instead of the forest twice? A single gain food action could have then enabled you to play the savannah sparrow and grasshopper and still have one food left, and then you can play both birds on the next turn, setting up a monster grassland: 4 eggs, a food from supply, and a strong predator hunt.

Had you done it that way, you have an extra food and your lay eggs action would have gotten you two extra eggs.
I still have no idea why you have the American Kestrel in your hand. Painted bunting helps with R4 goal, but not really, your opponent has star nests everywhere.

R4. Drawing cards before playing the painted bunting was rough. Why not play the bunting and see what bonus cards you get? Ouch, and your opponent gets the whooping crane as a result.

AND THEN YOU CONCEDED ?????????

WHY ???? Maybe your opponent had bad bonus cards. You're about to play the Painted bunting, which could give you a big bonus card, then lay eggs twice for big points and then play the Hermit thrush.

And you have one more turn remaining !!!!!

Look man, I don't know you, but maybe you try finishing your games instead of conceding close games ???

I just spent over an HOUR analyzing your game only to have you suddenly QUIT with 4 turns left???????

I am agitated beyond belief. This will be the last game of yours I ever waste my time analyzing again.

[BarnardsStar]

AND THEN YOU CONCEDED ?????????

Ah, that’s it. I found the reason you lost, Archisian. In case you were still wondering.

[Fromper]

I hate the northern shoveler. I hate a 3-food 7-point bird that gives everyone a card.

I disagree. The key to finding good cards is to draw LOTS of cards. The shoveler gives everyone more cards in hand, which could help your opponent, but it's worth it. Would I rather have a bird that draws extra cards only for me, and not my opponent? Sure. But you work with what you have, and in this case, that was the best option.

[FrankJones]

I hate the northern shoveler. I hate a 3-food 7-point bird that gives everyone a card.

I disagree. The key to finding good cards is to draw LOTS of cards. The shoveler gives everyone more cards in hand, which could help your opponent, but it's worth it. Would I rather have a bird that draws extra cards only for me, and not my opponent? Sure. But you work with what you have, and in this case, that was the best option.

You disagree with the fact that I hate the northern shoveler?



I'm kidding, sort of. I wasn't saying it's a terrible card or that other people should avoid it. Personally, I dislike it, and I'd rather play something else, such as the Roseate Spoonbill.

I think a 3-7 food to points ratio is too steep for a card with a neutral ability, unless I have a tuck-and-egg bird. or some other clear situations in which extra cards are more likely to be more valuable to me than to my opponent. (Such as having a Yellow Rumped Warbler in the forest as my only forest bird, then, yes, I need the extra cards so I can spare two cards per forest activation, one to discard for food and one to tuck and draw with the warbler.

Personally, I would put the northern shoveler pretty far down on the list of wetland birds I would want to play. The early food cost is brutal, especially requiring two of a same food. Yes, sometimes we have to work with what we have. That doesn't make me elevate my opinion of cards I consider overpriced and/or weak.

[illy831]

I dislike the Northern Shoveler and for that matter, the Red-headed Woodpecker, a lot. The Shoveler is way down on the list of ideal wetland birds. However, what makes it playable to me in this game is the thought that I really need to have extra draws: two birds per turn after getting two wetland birds might not cut it. That, and it's a large bird — getting out of stressing over how to complete just the first stage of that bonus ASAP is good compensation.

(Plus, without the Shoveler, how long is it going to be before you can even get minimum two birds per turn out of the wetland? It could be way into the game)

Finally, the woodpecker, in this case, can help you get extra grains for both the Shoveler and the Spoonbill (both large birds). Along with the (large bird) condor in the forest, and you're getting to the Shoveler reasonably fast, locking in a few large birds early, setting up the food engine, getting to three draws per wetland activation reasonably early, *and* getting another bonus card along the way. Then when you draw, you can focus on meadow birds and not worry too much about large birds for a while (because you'll have a plan for three, and some day not urgently you can find a fourth). The number of boxes that ticks off would make me start to feel good.

For some reason, I always either lose the first round bonus or significantly struggle to even compete. I know there is the option to forgo it, but I've lost a lot of games where I totally just forgone the first round bonus.

Yeah, I never like spotting an opponent 3 (or even 4) points but the first round is the one where it's most tolerable, or rather, sometimes you have to work so hard to avoid it that it's not worth it. Two forest birds is plenty and if an opponent is going to go for three, it's so unlikely I have a setup where it's sensible to match. So I think it's a reasonable to one to say "I'll play one or two depending on what works for me" — in the beginning, setting yourself up is more important.