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- Penguin_NOOOT
- Posts: 2
- Joined: 23 March 2023, 23:47
Resolved
Post by Penguin_NOOOT »
Last edited by Penguin_NOOOT on 30 April 2026, 19:43, edited 1 time in total.
- takeuchikurobey
- Posts: 20
- Joined: 04 March 2025, 22:39
Re: Ducks appearing in first turn bug? or preference bias?
Post by takeuchikurobey »
not so good,and dont appear so often.
- Skrybowiedzma
- Posts: 79
- Joined: 10 November 2024, 00:52
Re: Ducks appearing in first turn bug? or preference bias?
Post by Skrybowiedzma »
I've checked your game history and in the last 20 games, the duck was available to pick from the start in only 7 of them. That's very far from "nearly every game".
With only 32 animal cards in the game, it's not that unlikely. Nearly 16% chance for it to happen. So you'd expect about 3 at average. Yeah, 7 is above the expected value. But big enough to raise suspicion?
The probability that in 20 games you would see a duck in starting cards 7 or more times is about 4%. It is not small! There are over 2000 people in the current Arena ranking, so there should be somewhere around 80 people who could feel that "ducks appear at the start at nearly every game". Seems that you're one of those 80.
Those things happen. With hundreds of games played, you there must be a couple of instances of things that have a couple of percent chances to happen. You just don't notice most of them because you don't have strong feelings about them. Unusually big or small number of certain type of terrain in the starting pools, a certain card that you almost never pick coming up unusually often or nearly never in the last 20 games... I bet one of those also happened and you didn't notice.
Yeah, it is possible that there has been an error in the code that would result in some card coming up more often. But the game developers are mostly unpaid volunteers and making a BGA adaptation of a game is a lot of work from a skilled person. We should appreciate that and not bother them with reports of "bugs" we don't have any proof of. "I feel that it happens often" is no proof at all, because our feelings have strong biases. You yourself feel that something happens in "nearly every game" where it doesn't even happen in half of them. If you really think something odd happens, do a proper investigation and come with some actual numbers.
Imagine there is a game with a pool of 2000 players and about 10 different things with 1% probability that a person would notice if it happened in their last 20 games. If half the players make a report every time they see something odd, the developer is now investigating 100 false reports instead of making real improvements to the game or developing another one.
With only 32 animal cards in the game, it's not that unlikely. Nearly 16% chance for it to happen. So you'd expect about 3 at average. Yeah, 7 is above the expected value. But big enough to raise suspicion?
The probability that in 20 games you would see a duck in starting cards 7 or more times is about 4%. It is not small! There are over 2000 people in the current Arena ranking, so there should be somewhere around 80 people who could feel that "ducks appear at the start at nearly every game". Seems that you're one of those 80.
Those things happen. With hundreds of games played, you there must be a couple of instances of things that have a couple of percent chances to happen. You just don't notice most of them because you don't have strong feelings about them. Unusually big or small number of certain type of terrain in the starting pools, a certain card that you almost never pick coming up unusually often or nearly never in the last 20 games... I bet one of those also happened and you didn't notice.
Yeah, it is possible that there has been an error in the code that would result in some card coming up more often. But the game developers are mostly unpaid volunteers and making a BGA adaptation of a game is a lot of work from a skilled person. We should appreciate that and not bother them with reports of "bugs" we don't have any proof of. "I feel that it happens often" is no proof at all, because our feelings have strong biases. You yourself feel that something happens in "nearly every game" where it doesn't even happen in half of them. If you really think something odd happens, do a proper investigation and come with some actual numbers.
Imagine there is a game with a pool of 2000 players and about 10 different things with 1% probability that a person would notice if it happened in their last 20 games. If half the players make a report every time they see something odd, the developer is now investigating 100 false reports instead of making real improvements to the game or developing another one.
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- ↳ Similo
- ↳ Lords of Xidit
- ↳ Pingimus
- ↳ Lost Seas
- ↳ 31
- ↳ Get on Board: New York & London
- ↳ Perudo
- ↳ Potions of Azerland
- ↳ Naishi
- ↳ The Boss
- ↳ Assyria
- ↳ Biomes of Nilgiris
- ↳ Belladone Bluff
- ↳ Shock! Knights & Poisons
- ↳ abalone
- ↳ After Us
- ↳ Scriptoria
- ↳ Cat in the Box: Deluxe Edition
- ↳ Mate
- ↳ Mijnlieff
- ↳ Arctic
- ↳ Mercado de Lisboa
- ↳ Oh-Seven
- ↳ 1000
- ↳ Legions
- ↳ Stupor Mundi
- ↳ Evo: The "Game no Name"
- ↳ Go-Stop
- ↳ Quartz: The Dice Game
- ↳ Festival
- ↳ Pyramido: Forgotten Treasures
- ↳ Pylos
- ↳ Cairo Corridor
- ↳ Giraffe Raffe
- ↳ Dice Theme Park
- ↳ Verso
- ↳ Fruit Picking
- ↳ Panda Rei
- ↳ Tang Hu Lu
- ↳ Botanicus
- ↳ Red7
- ↳ March of the Crab
- ↳ Lady's Choice
- ↳ Ninjan
- ↳ Misty
- ↳ Abra Chadabra
- ↳ VektoRace
- ↳ Lines of Action
- ↳ Sail
- ↳ Cuttle
- ↳ sparts
- ↳ Armadöra
- ↳ Tortuga 1667
- ↳ Gosu X
- ↳ River of Gold
- ↳ Jump Gate
- ↳ Odicey
- ↳ LUZ
- ↳ Samarkand
- ↳ Durak
- ↳ Wizards Cup
- ↳ Art Thief
- ↳ Kokeshi
- ↳ Lumen: The Lost World
- ↳ Go Fish
- ↳ Quetzal
- ↳ Golfie
- ↳ Dédale
- ↳ Resolve
- ↳ Envelopes of Cash
- ↳ Crisps
- ↳ Stalk exchange
- ↳ Sir Ocelot's cave
- ↳ Claim
- ↳ Shifting Stones
- ↳ Quarto
- ↳ Art Decko
- ↳ Age of Civilization
- ↳ Mesos
- ↳ Hidden Leaders
- ↳ Yokai
- ↳ Battle of LITS
- ↳ Conspiracy
- ↳ Dice Hospital: ER – Emergency Roll
- ↳ Let's Catch the Lion!
- ↳ Luxor
- ↳ Forks: 2nd Edition
- ↳ Color Pop
- ↳ Scratch and Catch
- ↳ Qu4to
- ↳ Cephalopod
- ↳ Tablut
- ↳ 12 Chip Trick
- ↳ Cucumber
- ↳ German Whist
- ↳ Shogun
- ↳ Oriflamme
- ↳ Bower
- ↳ Verona Twist
- ↳ Balloon Pop!
- ↳ None Shall Pass!
- ↳ District Noir
- ↳ It's a Wonderful Kingdom
- ↳ Refuge
- ↳ Seikatsu
- ↳ Applejack
- ↳ The Itty Bitty Card Game
- ↳ Treos
- ↳ Kulami
- ↳ Happy City
- ↳ Paper World
- ↳ Coin Age
- ↳ Roll Into Town
- ↳ The Hanging Gardens
- ↳ Dungeon Rummy
- ↳ Road to 300
- ↳ Circle of Life
- ↳ Kingscraft
- ↳ Caper: Europe
- ↳ President
- ↳ Gomoku
- ↳ GoldnCrash
- ↳ Takara Island
- ↳ Sherlock 13
- ↳ Choconnect
- ↳ Mapmaker: The Gerrymandering Game
- ↳ The Jelly Monster Lab
- ↳ Tiwanaku
- ↳ China Gold
- ↳ Ginkgopolis
- ↳ Mythicals the boardgame
- ↳ Seotda
- ↳ Dragon Castle
- ↳ Bug
- ↳ Bunny Drops
- ↳ Sfynx
- ↳ Classified Information
- ↳ Little Factory
- ↳ Metro
- ↳ Thurn and Taxis
- ↳ Cake Master
- ↳ Sneferu: Builders of the Pyramids
- ↳ Pocket Cats
- ↳ Orion Duel
- ↳ Propuh
- ↳ Piratas!
- ↳ Streetcar
- ↳ Mind Up!
- ↳ Blooms
- ↳ Diamonds
- ↳ The Last
- ↳ Con Sonar!
- ↳ Love Links
- ↳ Caravan
- ↳ Moon River
- ↳ Jekyll vs. Hyde
- ↳ Sergeant Major
- ↳ ECK
- ↳ Battlegammon
- ↳ Via Magica
- ↳ Newton
- ↳ EKONOS
- ↳ Mexica
- ↳ 42
- ↳ Cosmos: Empires
- ↳ Architects of Amytis
- ↳ Tiny Turbo Cars
- ↳ Ekko
- ↳ Kami
- ↳ Karvi
- ↳ Crazy Farmers
- ↳ Masters of Renaissance: Lorenzo il Magnifico – The Card Game
- ↳ Siam
- ↳ Aniversus
- ↳ Kabaleo
- ↳ Qamgo
- ↳ Hex
- ↳ Nibble
- ↳ Medina
- ↳ Room 25
- ↳ Duck & Cover
- ↳ Simplicity
- ↳ Buttons
- ↳ Big Two
- ↳ Kahuna
- ↳ Hadara
- ↳ Ynaros Fallin
- ↳ Skate Legend
- ↳ Finca
- ↳ Calypso
- ↳ Bacon
- ↳ Age of Champagne
- ↳ Tulip & Rose
- ↳ L'Oracle B.A-BET
- ↳ Ultimate Tic-Tac-Toe
- ↳ Battle Spirits Saga
- ↳ Veletas
- ↳ GOLDblivion
- ↳ Zola
- ↳ Quirky Quarks
- ↳ 99 (trick-taking card game)
- ↳ Elfenland
- ↳ Apocalypse au Zoo de Carson City
- ↳ High Season
- ↳ Flaming Pyramids
- ↳ Oxono
- ↳ Equinox
- ↳ Connect6
- ↳ Sahwari
- ↳ Dicy Cards
- ↳ Geek Out! Masters
- ↳ The Gnomes of Zavandor
- ↳ Forever Home
- ↳ Neom
- ↳ SetUp
- ↳ Steam Works
- ↳ On Tour
- ↳ Spring Cleaning
- ↳ Ice and the Sky
- ↳ Zefiria
- ↳ Konane
- ↳ Homesteaders
- ↳ The King's Guild
- ↳ 3000 Scoundrels
- ↳ Florenza: The Card Game
- ↳ Thermopyles
- ↳ The Fox in the Forest: Duet
- ↳ Power Vacuum
- ↳ Vault A Den of Thieves
- ↳ Coal Baron
- ↳ Unrest
- ↳ Okanagan: Valley of the Lakes
- ↳ Nacho Pile
- ↳ Hack Trick
- ↳ Sobek
- ↳ Yaniv
- ↳ Almadi
- ↳ Romi Rami
- ↳ Forage
- ↳ Batalla de Coronas
- ↳ Solar Storm
- ↳ Loco Momo
- ↳ Cardiceo
- ↳ GrumbleStone
- ↳ Trike
- ↳ Legendary Inventors
- ↳ Koryŏ
- ↳ That's Life!
- ↳ Lielow
- ↳ Dark Agent
- ↳ Flowers: A Mandala Game
- ↳ Solo Whist
- ↳ Copenhagen
- ↳ HUND
- ↳ Flip Freighters
- ↳ Sapiens
- ↳ Boreal
- ↳ Eminent Domain: Microcosm
- ↳ Maps of Misterra
- ↳ Micro Midgard
- ↳ All In
- ↳ OASIS New Hope
- ↳ Castles of Caleira
- ↳ Goblin Hood
- ↳ For the King (and Me)
- ↳ Starship Merchants
- ↳ Evergreen
- ↳ Boomerang: Australia
- ↳ Once Upon A Forest
- ↳ Megalomania
- ↳ Caribbean All Fours
- ↳ Cradle to Grave
- ↳ Le Roy des Ribauds
- ↳ Palace
- ↳ Dice Summoners
- ↳ Divercité
- ↳ The Battle for Hill 218
- ↳ Yokai Septet
- ↳ Astra
- ↳ Insert
- ↳ Niagara
- ↳ gaia
- ↳ Number Drop
- ↳ Rest In Peace
- ↳ Vidrasso
- ↳ The Ruhr: A Story of Coal Trade
- ↳ United Square
- ↳ Noir: Killer versus Inspector
- ↳ Diced Tomatoes
- ↳ The Builders: Antiquity
- ↳ Meridians
- ↳ Barbu
- ↳ Dinosaur Tea Party
- ↳ Origin
- ↳ Exit Strategy
- ↳ Boss Quest
- ↳ Expedition: Northwest Passage
- ↳ Through the Ages
- ↳ 24/7: The Game
- ↳ Whist 22
- ↳ Gift of Tulips
- ↳ Volfyirion Guilds
- ↳ Zuuli
- ↳ FIKA
- ↳ Don't Go In There
- ↳ Humanity
- ↳ Neutreeko
- ↳ Hawaii
- ↳ Xanadu
- ↳ Murus Gallicus
- ↳ Colorado
- ↳ Secret Moon
- ↳ Diablo
- ↳ Nain Jaune
- ↳ HUGO
- ↳ Robots Ate Our Pizza
- ↳ I'm The Boss
- ↳ Empire Plateau: The Lateral Thinking Tactical Strategy Wargame
- ↳ Micro Dojo
- ↳ Ghost At Home
- ↳ Rift Valley Reserve
- ↳ Legend Raiders
- ↳ Betta
- ↳ Streets
- ↳ cucco
- ↳ Hypnosia
- ↳ Mia
- ↳ Crime Zoom: A Dirty Objective
- ↳ Oust
- ↳ Line It
- ↳ Crypt
- ↳ Silo
- ↳ Knockout Whist
- ↳ Legends of Hellas
- ↳ Las Vegan
- ↳ Raubbau
- ↳ Tucano
- ↳ Lifeline
- ↳ Rive
- ↳ Sensei
- ↳ Hungarian Tarokk
- ↳ Impasse
- ↳ Drones vs Seagulls
- ↳ Stir Fry Eighteen
- ↳ Trusis
- ↳ Gosu
- ↳ Look at the Stars
- ↳ Schrödinger's Cats
- ↳ Cubosaurs
- ↳ Canosa
- ↳ Hydroracers
- ↳ Yin Yang
- ↳ Fairy Trails
- ↳ Veggie Garden
- ↳ mow
- ↳ 8 Masters' Revenge
- ↳ Noah
- ↳ Amyitis
- ↳ Injawara
- ↳ Regidice
- ↳ Factum
- ↳ Kingdoms
- ↳ Baby Dinosaur Rescue
- ↳ Vege Tables
- ↳ Egocentric World
- ↳ EpiZodiak
- ↳ Blue Skies
- ↳ Fai-fo
- ↳ Sobek 2 players
- ↳ Senshi
- ↳ Big Monster
- ↳ Small Islands
- ↳ Lineae
- ↳ Mascarade
- ↳ Dragon Keeper: The Dungeon
- ↳ Icebreaker
- ↳ Yspahan
- ↳ Iwari
- ↳ Nicodemus
- ↳ Eruption
- ↳ Troyes Dice
- ↳ Morocco
- ↳ SteamRollers
- ↳ Blaze
- ↳ Exploration: Warzone
- ↳ Tea Time
- ↳ Zener
- ↳ Penalty Challenge
- ↳ EVL
- ↳ Lost Explorers
- ↳ Herrlof
- ↳ Turn the tide
- ↳ Off the Rails
- ↳ Krosmaster Blast
- ↳ Grand Bazaar
- ↳ Grosstarock
- ↳ Trick of the Rails
- ↳ Rolled West
- ↳ NXS
- ↳ Hoarders
- ↳ Saint Poker
- ↳ Bombay
- ↳ Nautilus
- ↳ Cinco
- ↳ Gopher
- ↳ The Void
- ↳ Metromania
- ↳ Guildes
- ↳ KQJ
- ↳ Phat
- ↳ Penny Press
- ↳ Quantik
- ↳ Mammalath
- ↳ Uncle Chestnut's Table Gype
- ↳ ToeShamBo
- ↳ Biyi
- ↳ Nanga Parbat
- ↳ Diam's
- ↳ Coup
- ↳ Gear & Piston
- ↳ GORami
- ↳ Dragon Line
- ↳ Outlaws: Last Man Standing
- ↳ Tiki
- ↳ Gygès
- ↳ Khronos
- ↳ Outlaws: Last Man Standing
- ↳ 15 Days
- ↳ 15 Jours en France
- ↳ 216
- ↳ 5Pairs
- ↳ A Fistful of Gold
- ↳ APEX
- ↳ AVES
- ↳ Abroad
- ↳ Alakablast
- ↳ All You Can Eat Buffet
- ↳ Amazonas
- ↳ Apocalypse au Zoo de Carson City
- ↳ Arabella
- ↳ Archipels
- ↳ Arctica
- ↳ Atrah
- ↳ Auntie Mildred's list of random tasks
- ↳ Aurum
- ↳ Azul: Stained Glass of Sintra
- ↳ Bamboozle
- ↳ Battleships Pencil & Paper
- ↳ Bauer
- ↳ Bebop
- ↳ Bids
- ↳ Black Narrows
- ↳ Blast Radius
- ↳ Block Arena
- ↳ Blooms
- ↳ Blot
- ↳ Breadcrumbs
- ↳ Bug Off
- ↳ Bunny Boom
- ↳ Bus
- ↳ Bye-Bye Black Sheep
- ↳ CATsle Builder
- ↳ Cannonades
- ↳ Capybara'n'Capyabara
- ↳ Carcassonne
- ↳ Cassino
- ↳ Catopomp
- ↳ Chandigarh
- ↳ Cheez-Tricks
- ↳ Chicken!
- ↳ Churn
- ↳ Circadia
- ↳ Circle Of Life: on the Savannah
- ↳ Civolution
- ↳ Class of 89'
- ↳ Coins
- ↳ Coloretto
- ↳ Confusing Lands
- ↳ Cookie battle
- ↳ Crash
- ↳ Crits & Tricks
- ↳ Custodian Dice
- ↳ Dale of Merchants
- ↳ Dance of Muses
- ↳ Deck EXPRESS: Tennessee Central
- ↳ Deck EXPRESS: Tennessee Central
- ↳ Deliverance
- ↳ Deluxe Camping
- ↳ Detective Poker
- ↳ Dickory
- ↳ Digging For Dinos
- ↳ Dobro
- ↳ Draft Cider
- ↳ Dragon Keeper, The Dungeon
- ↳ Dragonarium
- ↳ Déjà Vu
- ↳ Edgecut
- ↳ Electrify
- ↳ Enemy Anemone
- ↳ Eriantys
- ↳ Expeditions
- ↳ Expressions
- ↳ Falconry
- ↳ Fall of Lumen
- ↳ Fantasy Tiles
- ↳ Festi’vibes
- ↳ Fibonachos
- ↳ Fight the Landlord
- ↳ Finity
- ↳ Five Three Five
- ↳ Flipwars
- ↳ Flume
- ↳ For-Ex
- ↳ Forest Shuffle : Smoky Mountains
- ↳ Forfort
- ↳ Four Gardens
- ↳ Fox on the Tree
- ↳ Friendly Fishing
- ↳ Fugu
- ↳ GIPF
- ↳ Game of Trains
- ↳ Garden Geckos
- ↳ Garden Nation
- ↳ Gems of Iridescia
- ↳ Get on Board: Paris & Roma
- ↳ Get the MacGuffin
- ↳ Go_sandboxversion
- ↳ Golden Goal
- ↳ Golems
- ↳ Good Fortune
- ↳ Greasy Spoon
- ↳ Group
- ↳ Grund
- ↳ Guile
- ↳ Gyges
- ↳ Hadron
- ↳ Hawaiian Hanafuda
- ↳ Heckin Hounds
- ↳ Herooj
- ↳ Hey! That's my fish
- ↳ Hypnosia
- ↳ Hội Phố (Second Edition)
- ↳ Inkwell
- ↳ Invector
- ↳ Isaac
- ↳ Isle of Bears
- ↳ Journey Horizon
- ↳ Kaiser
- ↳ Kani Nari Ebi
- ↳ Kelp
- ↳ Khronos
- ↳ Kinapa
- ↳ King of the Dice
- ↳ Kmakici Family's greatest teatime
- ↳ Knister
- ↳ Kraken Up
- ↳ Lata
- ↳ Les toits de Paris
- ↳ Lewis & Clark
- ↳ Libertalia: Winds of Galecrest
- ↳ Linkx
- ↳ Livingstone
- ↳ Logger
- ↳ Lunar
- ↳ Maatatahay
- ↳ Malabares
- ↳ Mango
- ↳ Maquis
- ↳ Mattock
- ↳ Meadow
- ↳ Metz
- ↳ Microlonies
- ↳ Mighty
- ↳ Minefield
- ↳ Minhwatu
- ↳ Mod Ten
- ↳ Monster Factory
- ↳ Monster Hex
- ↳ Monster Smash
- ↳ Moolight: The Land of the Wolves
- ↳ Mutant Crops
- ↳ Nap
- ↳ Narabi
- ↳ Neon Reign
- ↳ Next Station: Berlin
- ↳ Nice to Know! Animals
- ↳ Nylon-ppong
- ↳ ONE
- ↳ Odysseus
- ↳ Odéon
- ↳ Olenon
- ↳ Onda
- ↳ Open Season
- ↳ POP!
- ↳ Paikō
- ↳ Paladins of the West Kingdom
- ↳ Palourde
- ↳ Panda Panda
- ↳ Park Life
- ↳ Penny Press
- ↳ Persona Non Grata
- ↳ Pescado Novo
- ↳ Petals
- ↳ Piepmatz
- ↳ Pier 18
- ↳ PiliPiliExtraSpicy
- ↳ Pioneer Rails
- ↳ Pirates Under Fire
- ↳ Point City
- ↳ Pook
- ↳ Positano
- ↳ Puerto Rico
- ↳ Quest Inc.
- ↳ Quiltable
- ↳ Quinque
- ↳ Quintus
- ↳ Quorum
- ↳ RIVALS
- ↳ RabbitZ & Robots
- ↳ Race for the Galaxy
- ↳ Redstone
- ↳ Relative Space
- ↳ Road Master
- ↳ Room and Pillar
- ↳ Roppyakken
- ↳ Rowdy Partners
- ↳ Rumble Planet
- ↳ Safari Witness
- ↳ Savanna Ten
- ↳ Schadenfreude
- ↳ Scratch and Catch
- ↳ Scream Park
- ↳ Sea Shells
- ↳ Seven Knights Bewitched
- ↳ Sheep Boom Bah
- ↳ Skirmish: Battle for Draconia
- ↳ Sky Totems
- ↳ Skybirds
- ↳ Sobek 2 players
- ↳ Soulaween
- ↳ Speculaas
- ↳ Spellcrafter
- ↳ Splitter
- ↳ Squadro
- ↳ Stigméria
- ↳ Stonks
- ↳ Strategic Reserve
- ↳ Strawberry Sunset
- ↳ Sunfield Farm
- ↳ Sunrise Sunset
- ↳ Suspeição
- ↳ Take Time
- ↳ Tamago Dorobou
- ↳ Tangram City
- ↳ Tannhäuser
- ↳ Tapas
- ↳ The Battle for Hill 218
- ↳ The Great American Fox Hunt
- ↳ The Great Split
- ↳ The Happiest Cat in the World
- ↳ The King of the Woods
- ↳ The Little Flower Shop
- ↳ The Nine Domains
- ↳ The Oracle of Delphi
- ↳ The White Castle Duel
- ↳ Tholos
- ↳ Thrive
- ↳ Tien Len
- ↳ Time Splicers
- ↳ Tiny Farms
- ↳ Toepen
- ↳ Tokaido Duo
- ↳ Tomatoss
- ↳ TriATri
- ↳ Trick-n-Chef
- ↳ Trickarus
- ↳ Troggu
- ↳ Tsukimi
- ↳ Twin Palms
- ↳ Two-Ten-Jack
- ↳ Ultimatch
- ↳ Unane
- ↳ Up or Down?
- ↳ Vegetable Stock
- ↳ Verdant Arizona
- ↳ Via Gladiola
- ↳ Vivo
- ↳ Vizia
- ↳ Voyages
- ↳ Waddle
- ↳ Wana
- ↳ Whist
- ↳ Widgets n' Digit$
- ↳ Wild Space
- ↳ Word Traveler
- ↳ Xxung
- ↳ Yoxii
- ↳ Zookeepers
- ↳ a_way
- ↳ niwashi
- ↳ Àiyé
- ↳ Écarté