Board Game Arena

Resolved

not so good,and dont appear so often.

I've checked your game history and in the last 20 games, the duck was available to pick from the start in only 7 of them. That's very far from "nearly every game".

With only 32 animal cards in the game, it's not that unlikely. Nearly 16% chance for it to happen. So you'd expect about 3 at average. Yeah, 7 is above the expected value. But big enough to raise suspicion?

The probability that in 20 games you would see a duck in starting cards 7 or more times is about 4%. It is not small! There are over 2000 people in the current Arena ranking, so there should be somewhere around 80 people who could feel that "ducks appear at the start at nearly every game". Seems that you're one of those 80.

Those things happen. With hundreds of games played, you there must be a couple of instances of things that have a couple of percent chances to happen. You just don't notice most of them because you don't have strong feelings about them. Unusually big or small number of certain type of terrain in the starting pools, a certain card that you almost never pick coming up unusually often or nearly never in the last 20 games... I bet one of those also happened and you didn't notice.

Yeah, it is possible that there has been an error in the code that would result in some card coming up more often. But the game developers are mostly unpaid volunteers and making a BGA adaptation of a game is a lot of work from a skilled person. We should appreciate that and not bother them with reports of "bugs" we don't have any proof of. "I feel that it happens often" is no proof at all, because our feelings have strong biases. You yourself feel that something happens in "nearly every game" where it doesn't even happen in half of them. If you really think something odd happens, do a proper investigation and come with some actual numbers.

Imagine there is a game with a pool of 2000 players and about 10 different things with 1% probability that a person would notice if it happened in their last 20 games. If half the players make a report every time they see something odd, the developer is now investigating 100 false reports instead of making real improvements to the game or developing another one.

Everyone has different experiences. If you look at your recent games, chances are one of the 32 animals of the game will have appeared at a unusually high rate.