Consistently last player in nearly every game

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Jellby
Posts: 3577
Joined: 31 December 2013, 12:22

Re: Consistently last player in nearly every game

Post by Jellby »

In some games the turn order may not be random. It may be a setting of the table (e.g. first player to join plays the "bad guy" and goes last). Or if you replay a game with the same opponent(s) the turn order may be swapped from the previous game. A few of these won't alter the global statistics, but if you have a lot of them, one should remove them from the sample before drawing any kind of statistical conclusion.
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skoki
Posts: 44
Joined: 01 February 2022, 19:09

Re: Consistently last player in nearly every game

Post by skoki »

Jest Phulin wrote: 30 July 2022, 05:39 "I'm absolutely sure this is the case, even though I am providing no data to support it" will tend to have people attack the claimant.
[...]
So, please, if you want to be taken seriously, post the data of every game you have played in the last "about a week" and what your turn order was. [...]
So you say that attacking someone personally without evidence he is wrong is ok?
While sharing the feeling of experience of the platform is silly?
RobertBr
Posts: 667
Joined: 08 July 2016, 15:57

Re: Consistently last player in nearly every game

Post by RobertBr »

morgenish wrote: 30 July 2022, 01:12 I don't think there's some huge conspiracy and I'm not just being a poor sport. I pay attention to when I'm not last and like I said, I've been keeping track of every single game in the last few days. So... thanks for thinking i'm an idiot or a jerk but that's not the case. I was wondering how it's possible that if it's completely random that I am last *way* more often than I'm not.
Well, that is literally an articulation of a common conspiracy theory that depends on a lack of understanding of randomness - so you have no real right to be offended that you are treated as you are behaving. But to make it clear as you don't know much about probability, when something is randomly assigned some results are more likely than others. For example, if colour is randomly assigned in a game of Chess and I play four games there is a 1/16 chance I get assigned black in every game (unlikely but not odd). Over, say, 10 games, that would be a 1/1024 chance. If a friend and I were flipping a coin and that happened I might want to look at the coin - but a website isn't a friendly game. On a website there will be a thousand or more players, which means *one* player in that thousand or more will get black every time - and guess which of the thousand players will turn up on a forum to talk about the colour they were assigned?

For something to be so unlikely it should warrant a red flag (even the possibility of thinking about a need to report it) the sequence of events has to be so unlikely it would be implausible it had happened to any player on the site. One way to check that, as someone suggested, is to reset and look for the pattern again - if you saw a pattern in the last 10 games do you see exactly the same pattern in the next ten - if not all you are experiencing is the entirely normal operation of randomness.

Note that these sorts of post (usually more clearly worded) turn up virtually daily on the site. Only once has it ever transpired to be an actual issue and that genuine issue had difficulty gaining attention in part because of the 'cry wolf' effect from all the false reports (and even then it was not a problem with things not being random but with someone having found an exploit to cheat).
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Shobu
Posts: 585
Joined: 04 January 2020, 04:14

Re: Consistently last player in nearly every game

Post by Shobu »

Are there stats about first/last player %advantage for these games?
i read that Glow was kinda broken, but what about the others?
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Jest Phulin
Posts: 1856
Joined: 08 July 2013, 21:50

Re: Consistently last player in nearly every game

Post by Jest Phulin »

skoki wrote: 30 July 2022, 10:29
Jest Phulin wrote: 30 July 2022, 05:39 "I'm absolutely sure this is the case, even though I am providing no data to support it" will tend to have people attack the claimant.
[...]
So, please, if you want to be taken seriously, post the data of every game you have played in the last "about a week" and what your turn order was. [...]
So you say that attacking someone personally without evidence he is wrong is ok?
While sharing the feeling of experience of the platform is silly?
I never said the personality attack was OK, I said it happens. However, realize that that person initiated the first attack without evidence by attacking the website without evidence to prove their claim.
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