Analytics Nerd

[Andrewsmile]

Hey all,
I'm Andrewsmile, and if you've played at least a few real-time games we've probably played each other. I have the most games played of everyone but the developer and have a pretty high winrate- I'm 43-5 (I only play 2 player) and I lost my first game, had an unfortunate d/c, and the other 3 games have been lost to 1 card and 1 card only. In my latest game, my opponent found analytics nerd in their hand in the final turn of the game and scored a whopping 35 points with the card (5 for placement + 10 border recruits) and beat me by just 4 points after being behind all game. They had a very board-focused strategy with 2 recruit discounters, 4 EC generators, some travel helpers, and no other end game scoring cards while I had a more long-term value strategy with 6 endgame scoring cards and a small boosterbuck engine with state-nil law. I was up the entire game when considering endgame cards, and despite all this we had a very close in-game score and my 6 endgame scoring cards netted me 43 points compared to their 1 card giving 30. You can see the replay here:
https://boardgamearena.com/archive/repl ... s=86610938;

this was obviously a standout game for analytics nerd since my opponent had an unusually high number of border recruits, but even in an average game it will score 17+ points (4 recruits) with huge upside making it far and away the highest value card in the game in terms of pure points, and it's not close. It is unique in the endgame cards in giving 3 points per desired item rather than all the other 4 EC cost endgame cards giving 2 and I can't see why. 2/BS recruit would make it much more inline with the others and less swingy. Perhaps it is more balanced in games with a higher player count but every game I see it in in 2-player it is kingmaking. Many of my arena games where I am able to snag this card I win by over 100 points. What are your experiences with the card?

[SpenserCode]

I think analytics nerd is a really good card but it is not kingmaking. It is possible to lose while having the analytics nerd.

I looked at 18 of your games. In one you won by 36 points even though your opponent got 30 from analytics nerd ( https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=452659494 ). Your opponent in that game is not a bad player. They beat you in an arena game by 18. In that game, they got 24 from analytics nerd. With your proposed rule change they would have still won ( https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=454497842 ).

I myself have lost while having analytics nerd. I lost by 8 points. I think there are most likely more instances of that. I can't be bothered to look at any more games though. In all the games that I looked at where analytics nerd was present the person who won would have still won with your proposed rule change. Analytics nerd is not the reason for huge points differences as the most I've ever seen someone get at the end of the game is 30 if you don't count the 5 for placement. Those games which you won by over 100 points you would have still won by over 70 without analytics nerd. And since you would have played another card in analytics nerd place, you might have won some of those by over 100 still if the card you played was a good one.

I think this card stands out because it's easier to see its total effect because it's laid out for you. There are lots of cards in this game that make it possible to draft recruits you wouldn't have otherwise been able to. What I'm trying to say is that I don't think analytics nerd is the only card that gets you a lot of victory points.

To comment on the game you referenced, I noticed a few things:
1) You only got 5 for recruiting board while they got 15. If you had gotten 15 instead of 5 you would have won even with them getting 30 from analytics nerd. You were unable to recruit the second DL you needed because they took them all, including one you sent a package to.
2) With your proposed change you would have won by 6.
3) Yes it was lucky that he drew that card but at the end of the day even though this game has a lot of strategy involved like all games that involve drawing cards randomly and rolling dice it is still luck based. All your VMD rolls totaled +5 while all his totaled -2. If he had gotten a total of +5 from the VMD like you he would have still won with your proposed change.

I think the card is fine as it is.

[Andrewsmile]

Very impressive amount of research, showed that I am clearly biased, changed my mind. I guess i was just tilted after losing 2 games that day to a big analytics nerd after not losing for dozens of games in a row haha. Thanks for doing all that work, and apologies all for the biased post lol. I very much love the game and while I do think the card is still relatively strong it probably falls within the balance of normal game variance in a game with luck in it. Great work Spenser

[andyhre]

I do wonder if we ever did a rebalancing update, whether 2 points per recruit rather than 3 might be in order.

Just a thought. Not my currently plan.

Also I do not have a plan to rebalance at all. Just spitballing really. if we want to go full hypothetical, if Capstone Games came to me and ask to buy the rights to issue a second edition (hint hint!!!), on the agenda would be things like askign whether Analytics Nerd should be nerfed a smidge.

[Matis_]

Thats what i was thinking, 2 per recruit insead of 3 would be much better imo, usually you get 5-6 border state recruits without any effort, and thats 20-23 points, while usually the rest of the best scoring cards give you 14-16 points.

Would be nice to have some balances since some cards are very unplayable.

Im just playing 2p games so maybe analytics nerd is a little bit worse in 4p, but still i think is very OP.

[SpenserCode]

If you include the face value of the card, I've gotten 20+ from some of the other high scoring cards before. If you get Graduate Assistant and Campus Master Plan early and make it a point of your duty you can get that. Analytics Nerd is worse in 4p and also when your opponent gets certain combinations.

I get that it can be frustrating to see your opponent get that many points from a single card. In a game I just finished playing my opponent had it and the final score was 207 - 202 in their favor. Instead of changing it, maybe a solution could be borrowed from Wingspan. Wingspan has cards that are considered to be overpowered, instead of changing the cards they give you the option of removing the OP cards from the deck. If analytics nerd is OP then Private Jet is too and maybe others.

Maybe some of the unplayable cards could be made more playable instead. Or maybe introduce some new cards.

If you're going to make analytics nerd weaker, some others should be made weaker as well.

[Andrewsmile]

For me what stands out about analytics nerd is that you don't really need to "build around" it- graduate assistant, booster driven pipeline, etc need a bit of support but most players are stacking up border recruits anyways. I have changed my mind a little bit though- I used to think AN was the best card, and I've changed that to private jet. That card has won me some games I did NOT deserve to win lol- the ability to jump around and steal recruits from your opponent all game I think on average generates more points than AN though it's of course difficult to quantify. But even in the last round its a good pickup, and I think any utility card that doesnt give direct points that you will still take in the last round (and often happily) is super super good. I will say though the more I play and the more I play against good opponents the the more I feel the game is super super balanced and especially for a game predicated on card drafting and dice rolls. I hope we get an expansion one day

[neppelj]

Great post overall Andrewsmile, that game I had the tiebreaker issue on my opponent had that card. I felt like the odds were stacked against me as they kept building good card after good card around it. I can't really say I had much defense for it besides swiping a late green to reduce their regional. With the cards I got, with the patriarch coach, I was just trying to grab as many points in the now possible. Don't remember the name of the card, but the card that gives 2 pts per 3 players of a position was a late game changer for me. Yes AN is a high scoring card, but the luck of it coming out in 2 player game is I believe 60%, any card that is.

https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=465667934