Dice are Wrecking the Fun of This Game

[YoYoAdrian]

Look at this game and tell me that this was real. I played white and based on the resources there was no chance was gonna loose this esspecially to the blue guy. But look at this rolls. And the ranking ....and the winning procentage and tell me that something fishy is not going on.

https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=603245299

It's your claim and it's up to you to PROVE that there is something which is so unlikely to be suspicious.
PROVE means to establish some meaningul observable, compute it's likelyhood and check that your game has a probability so small to be
suspicious.

If you have a game which you can win only if you get six times in a row the number 5 from a dice, this is unlikely to happen but not impossible and
given the amount of games played on bga it should happen a VERY LARGE number of times...

What are you saying? How whould I have proof? that would mean I know how to use the code to mess with the dices. I do not. So I am just observing. Did you look at hte game?

[gmrsmrt]

What are you saying? How whould I have proof? that would mean I know how to use the code to mess with the dices. I do not. So I am just observing. Did you look at hte game?

You have the log file of the game

Collect the dice rolls and show they don't respect the expected (WITHIN STATISTICAL FLUCTUATIONS) distribution.

[Jellby]

And the ranking ....and the winning procentage and tell me that something fishy is not going on.
https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=603245299

So, in a very luck-based game you lost against someone with a similar elo and somewhat lower winning rate (which cannot be directly compared given the way it's computed). What's so strange about that?

[CaptianCatan]

The dice roll on this platform is NOT Random. I can NEVER be convinced it is random. I have played more than 1200 games of Catan on this platform ( I shut down my premium account and went back to a free account) and I have played enough games to know it is NOT random.

[Jellby]

The dice roll on this platform is NOT Random.

You're right, it's not random. It's pseudo-random, which is indistinguishable from random.

[Cos-]

The dice roll on this platform is NOT Random. I can NEVER be convinced it is random. I have played more than 1200 games of Catan on this platform ( I shut down my premium account and went back to a free account) and I have played enough games to know it is NOT random.

You seem to be suffering from a delusion that's very common among people who look at random or fair pseudo-random sequences without understanding how randomness works. You've provided no evidence whatsoever that this is anything other than a delusion.

If the rolls are truly random, then almost every single game would have some very "unlikely" aspects to its dice roll sequence. A few games would have a sequence that follows pretty closely to the statistical probabilities, but those would be a small minority if rolls are truly random. So taking several games' sequences and saying look how unlikely each of these sequences is, demonstrates nothing.

Another way to look at it is: At the start of a game, when you don't yet know what the rolls will be, it's good to bet on a 6 coming up more than an 11. You are _more likely_ to have a game where more 6's will be rolled than 11's. But there are still going to be plenty of games in which more 11's get rolled than 6's, and this game may turn out to be one of those.

[tylerjwarren]

The dice roll on this platform is NOT Random. I can NEVER be convinced it is random. I have played more than 1200 games of Catan on this platform ( I shut down my premium account and went back to a free account) and I have played enough games to know it is NOT random.

I am 100% with you. In fact a couple games ago was playing with some friendly players and called the first "7" roll of the game in the chat way ahead of time, and was not shocked at all to be correct. Whether it's the game engine adjusting rolls or people knowing the script, or people hacking and influencing rolls I can't tell, and don't care enough really, it's not my platform. But to your point, and my original point, the dice are not random.

[Silene]

If the rolls are truly random, then almost every single game would have some very "unlikely" aspects to its dice roll sequence. A few games would have a sequence that follows pretty closely to the statistical probabilities, but those would be a small minority if rolls are truly random. So taking several games' sequences and saying look how unlikely each of these sequences is, demonstrates nothing.

This!

[Romain672]

I am 100% with you. In fact a couple games ago was playing with some friendly players and called the first "7" roll of the game in the chat way ahead of time, and was not shocked at all to be correct. Whether it's the game engine adjusting rolls or people knowing the script, or people hacking and influencing rolls I can't tell, and don't care enough really, it's not my platform. But to your point, and my original point, the dice are not random.

Try to call some 7s twenty more times. And see how much are right.

[Romain672]

@tylerjwarren:
Since you seem to be invested, if you want instead of what I/others said earlier, you could instead start a document/paper where you note:
- the id number of the game (or an easy way for us to find your game, like date+hour)
- the turn you are at
- a prediction you are making about the future
- and if it's right or wrong

That will be extremely hard to analyse since those prediction seem completely different, but if you do it, after 20 or 100 entries, you should imo see that you will be wrong way more than you though.
And if you do it, and maths don't add up, we could be looking much more in the claims which came frequently.



OR like I said in page 2, list some things which could be weird now. Then report in the forum later when that weird thing happen.



I will reread your first post since it has changed. I will try to help you:
Is your claim that after 30 turns of the game, you can predict that the 2 numbers which were the most above than what you expect on average WILL BE more rolled than average in the remaining turns of the game?
Because that would be a claim which can be checked pretty easily.
Or is your own play which change that? Which would make that part much harder to check.

If you can't said yes or no on the first one, it seem you don't know what are you checking, and you could read again my post in page 2: you can find something wrong in almost all games if you check after the game. But since you can check 1000+ things, that doesn't mean anything.