Asteroid Mining Consortium

[FrankJones]

I would be curious to play a 700 ELo player, friendly mode (I won't ask someone to risk Elo when I think my 500 ELo might understand my ability).

If you want a challenge and to see how well you do, why don't you just play a lot of Arena? It's the most (only) competitive format on BGA.

In my experience with Arena, I get matched with players whose Elo is nowhere near mine. Also, I strongly dislike Preludes. And, I would prefer to play on friendly mode. I do not like the timers for TFM. I mostly prefer to play TFM real-time, but with the option to take a 5 or 10 minute break here and there if the need arises.

[FrankJones]

don’t increase variance, they reduce it, as they make it easier to control game length. The Prelude corporations increase variance and there should be an option to turn them off, as there is on Steam.

I’m pretty sure Frank meant Preludes expansion increases variance overall, which it does to the point that we like eliminating or limiting the corporations and then leaving the prelude cards that reduce variance by shortening games.

Well, Yes, It's rather unfair if the game ends up being Point Luna (Or Vitor or Cheung Shing) versus Robinson Industries.

But also, I meant, the preludes are also highly imbalanced. It's rough when the opponent gets Huge Asteroid and Great Aquifer and we get Eccentric Sponsor (with no target), society support, Ecology experts (with no target), and some other junk prelude.

[Corvus Mortis]

don’t increase variance, they reduce it, as they make it easier to control game length. The Prelude corporations increase variance and there should be an option to turn them off, as there is on Steam.

I’m pretty sure Frank meant Preludes expansion increases variance overall, which it does to the point that we like eliminating or limiting the corporations and then leaving the prelude cards that reduce variance by shortening games.

Well, Yes, It's rather unfair if the game ends up being Point Luna (Or Vitor or Cheung Shing) versus Robinson Industries.

But also, I meant, the preludes are also highly imbalanced. It's rough when the opponent gets Huge Asteroid and Great Aquifer and we get Eccentric Sponsor (with no target), society support, Ecology experts (with no target), and some other junk prelude.

Yes, but as you increase the number of cards you draw, card quality is mean-reverting. If you have a horrendous hand, your expected quality of Preludes is still average. And you can develop a fair bit of tempo with just two decent Preludes. This makes it possible for skilled players to get away with weak starting 10. Sans Preludes, if you have no good development plays in the first 3-4 gens it is very hard to win.

Sure, it’s possible to have a great hand *and* great Preludes in which case you’re probably hosed if you’re facing it, but a great starting 10 was probably already enough to win a Base game by itself. At least the Preludes gave your opponent the chance to draw Society Support while you got Huge Asteroid and Great Aquifer to offset your terrible hand.

[dialectic42]

I don’t have any spreadsheets up on the side like some of you probably do to help assist in what the absolute optimal combo is to play.

Where did this idea come from? I’ve never heard of someone using notes or a spreadsheet to assist them, and I’ve been actively discussing this game with a community of strong players for at least 5 years.

Do you actually have a source of someone discussing using external assistance, or did you just manifest this idea?

[HappyMeaI]

Once my 28 game stint is over I’ll happily fire up 50 HU games with you for fun. I don’t think I’m better, but a lot of what you’re saying is just wrong. The W/R on someone’s profile is not an accurate number, and just because it’s 80-85% doesn’t mean a better player will always beat you 80-85% of the time.

I am calculating the 75-80% win rate based on the Elo formula. That is what is required to move up in rankings.

Yeah there is literally zero difference in elo between 600 and 800. If there is, then we’ll play 10’ and if you beat me 8 of them I will bow to you.

This is delusional. I have played folks at both levels and there is a massive difference.

Also prelude does not reduce variance, it obviously increases it.

It depends on what you mean by variance, but I mean it in the sense of increasing the likelihood that the better player wins. High variance favors the weaker player (since luck plays a larger role). Preludes allow you to achieve a suitable start even with a very weak hand, which favors a stronger player. The Prelude corps are poorly designed and overpowered (except for Robinson). So, the Preludes themselves reduce variance but the corporations increase it.

Base games you are often dead if you lack early development. Additionally, the longer game length gives engines more time to develop and overpower any effective counter play. That’s also why Solo Challenge scores tend to be higher in Base (where you get 14 gens) than with Preludes (where you get 12). Since engines often have exponential scoring, the extra generations tilt balance towards engines.

This is a good / different take. I meant that prelude increases the chances of a weaker player winning by allowing more margin of error with an engine on crack. It does make sense that you can also have more control over tempo with such power, so I understand your point.

Relative to corp-era non prelude where the better player will win way more often imo. It feels more technical and solved.

My WR is 61% because I’ve played a lot more 3p / 4p games and only recently have I dedicated more effort to 2p. I think my HU w/r is somewhere between 75-90% if I had to guess.

In the 600-800 elo, I would say edges are somewhere in the 5-10% range at max. What you’re claiming (80-85% *massive*) means that you believe a 700 elo would be a 4-1 favorite over someone who is 5-500, meaning they would secure on average 40 wins for every 50 games. That’s just too high.

[FrankJones]

Hey everyone,

So, I figured I would write a follow-up post. Corvus Mortis accepted my open invite for a friendly game for the purposed of analysis and discussion. No other player volunteered.

We had a good game, 8 generations ( ! ). Corvus was polite and friendly and gracious, and has offered to give post-game analysis.

I think we could all do well to tone down the angst we sometime post with, review our posts to see whether have unnecessarily negative or aggressive tone, and focus on analysis and strategy.

Look at my profile. I am "strong" in every game I play. I am top 30 in six of them, top 14 in 4 of them. and top 7 in two of them.

And I claim to be #1 in at least 3 of those, I just haven't played enough games yet to get there.

If anyone wants to play ANY of those games with/against me (one of them is a team game), I will graciously accept, and I'll play (likely in friendly mode) until my opponent gets bored, while offering strategy advice and engaging in discussion.

These games are a hobby. Let's all be good and kind to one another. Let's learn and improve from one another.

Thank you all for taking this thread (which started about Asteroid Mining consortium) in several interesting directions.

[Corvus Mortis]

Relative to corp-era non prelude where the better player will win way more often imo. It feels more technical and solved.

Non-corp era is indeed more technical and mathematical. There are also some goofy dynamics around awards where so many of the science and mineral production cards are taken out of the deck. However, this format has a lower skill cap — has been extensively played on Steam. Fewer degrees of freedom to counter good execution with a few of the key space events.

In the 600-800 elo, I would say edges are somewhere in the 5-10% range at max. What you’re claiming (80-85% *massive*) means that you believe a 700 elo would be a 4-1 favorite over someone who is 5-500, meaning they would secure on average 40 wins for every 50 games. That’s just too high.

Your guess is wrong. You cannot maintain a 750 Elo if you won 55% of your games against 500s. That math just doesn’t math. I calculated 75-80% (not 80-85%, as you say) from the Elo formula itself. Were a 750 not winning 75-80% of their games against 500-550s, they would start dropping quickly. Again, no disrespect, you’re just underestimating the skill cap in this game. Which is fine, it just comes off as odd to me when you’re so far off the top of the leaderboard and talking about how easy / solved the game is.

[Corvus Mortis]

In the 600-800 elo, I would say edges are somewhere in the 5-10% range at max. What you’re claiming (80-85% *massive*) means that you believe a 700 elo would be a 4-1 favorite over someone who is 5-500, meaning they would secure on average 40 wins for every 50 games. That’s just too high.

Just to add substance, I went through my own game history here to validate my statement. I've played 44 games against players between 500-600 Elo and won 35 of them, equating to a win rate of 80%. That is to say, I have nearly done exactly the thing you suggested (play 50 games against people between 500-600) and won almost exactly 80% of them, also exactly in-line with what I claimed previously.

[RoyalRook]

I disagree with Jay on gen1 hacker, I think it's perfectly fine to play. -1 vp on gen 1 is meaningless, but 4 MC swing for 9+ gens creates a tremendous deflation effect on your 2p opponents economy, especially they bought lots cards in the initial draft. Delaying one more gen of media group combo decides games, it's simple as that. Money is tempo and if the game goes on to gen 10 it's all gravy for the hacker. Play hacker then dont buy cards fixes the negatives anyway, and the hacker has the right of way during draft.

[primrose1234]

I disagree with Jay on gen1 hacker, I think it's perfectly fine to play. -1 vp on gen 1 is meaningless, but 4 MC swing for 9+ gens creates a tremendous deflation effect on your 2p opponents economy, especially they bought lots cards in the initial draft. Delaying one more gen of media group combo decides games, it's simple as that. Money is tempo and if the game goes on to gen 10 it's all gravy for the hacker. Play hacker then dont buy cards fixes the negatives anyway, and the hacker has the right of way during draft.

If money is tempo, what do you think about delaiyng NRA for playing bribed?