How much luck is involved in TM?

Forum rules
Please DO NOT POST BUGS on this forum. Please report (and vote) bugs on : https://boardgamearena.com/bugs
dessp7
Posts: 55
Joined: 04 May 2025, 14:07

Re: How much luck is involved in TM?

Post by dessp7 »

Well, I would bet that I'd win under 40. Anyway there is a noticable gap between corvus and me, then there is a gap between me and let's say you, and then there is a gap between you and some 500 elo guy. There is enough skill expression in the game to make a difference over a prolonged set of games.
well, maybe then I am wrong. are you happy to play 100 games against me? (can be friendly so does not affect your ELO :))
User avatar
RicardoRix
Posts: 2540
Joined: 29 April 2012, 23:43

Re: How much luck is involved in TM?

Post by RicardoRix »

Bogeyun wrote: 04 May 2026, 17:21 Mostly becomes less interesting if two very high rated players compete because then it can largely be decided on luck. It's why I'm less interested to play Corvus but games vs most 600-700 can still be interesting
If you're both equal skill, then you still have to play your best to get your 50% win rate. Normally sharpening your teeth against the best would be the best way to improve.

Overall, this statement does not make much sense to me.
User avatar
Corvus Mortis
Posts: 59
Joined: 16 May 2024, 18:30

Re: How much luck is involved in TM?

Post by Corvus Mortis »

dessp7 wrote: 05 May 2026, 21:10
Well, I would bet that I'd win under 40. Anyway there is a noticable gap between corvus and me, then there is a gap between me and let's say you, and then there is a gap between you and some 500 elo guy. There is enough skill expression in the game to make a difference over a prolonged set of games.
well, maybe then I am wrong. are you happy to play 100 games against me? (can be friendly so does not affect your ELO :))
Yes, I am happy to play any number of games as long as you’re willing to play turn-based. Send me an invite.

The last time someone said this on this forum, we played 12 games and I won 9 of them. They were rated about the same as you. As Kulikk says, my win rate versus 600-rated opponents across all my games is ~70%. So I’d expect I would win closer to 2/3rds of our games as we play enough.
FrankJones
Posts: 2441
Joined: 30 June 2024, 00:24

Re: How much luck is involved in TM?

Post by FrankJones »

Corvus Mortis wrote: 05 May 2026, 23:09
dessp7 wrote: 05 May 2026, 21:10
Well, I would bet that I'd win under 40. Anyway there is a noticable gap between corvus and me, then there is a gap between me and let's say you, and then there is a gap between you and some 500 elo guy. There is enough skill expression in the game to make a difference over a prolonged set of games.
well, maybe then I am wrong. are you happy to play 100 games against me? (can be friendly so does not affect your ELO :))
Yes, I am happy to play any number of games as long as you’re willing to play turn-based. Send me an invite.

The last time someone said this on this forum, we played 12 games and I won 9 of them. They were rated about the same as you. As Kulikk says, my win rate versus 600-rated opponents across all my games is ~70%. So I’d expect I would win closer to 2/3rds of our games as we play enough.
Was that the highly public battle of you versus the person who name had a chess piece in the name?

Anyway, My Elo peaked at 534 and currently is 479, I think. Let's assume I am a 500 Elo player. There is no way I am winning 50% against a 700-player let alone 800. If I could do that, I wouldn't be a 500 player, or the opponent wouldn't be a 700 or 800.
User avatar
Corvus Mortis
Posts: 59
Joined: 16 May 2024, 18:30

Re: How much luck is involved in TM?

Post by Corvus Mortis »

FrankJones wrote: 05 May 2026, 23:57
Corvus Mortis wrote: 05 May 2026, 23:09
dessp7 wrote: 05 May 2026, 21:10

well, maybe then I am wrong. are you happy to play 100 games against me? (can be friendly so does not affect your ELO :))
Yes, I am happy to play any number of games as long as you’re willing to play turn-based. Send me an invite.

The last time someone said this on this forum, we played 12 games and I won 9 of them. They were rated about the same as you. As Kulikk says, my win rate versus 600-rated opponents across all my games is ~70%. So I’d expect I would win closer to 2/3rds of our games as we play enough.
Was that the highly public battle of you versus the person who name had a chess piece in the name?

Anyway, My Elo peaked at 534 and currently is 479, I think. Let's assume I am a 500 Elo player. There is no way I am winning 50% against a 700-player let alone 800. If I could do that, I wouldn't be a 500 player, or the opponent wouldn't be a 700 or 800.
It was indeed!
dessp7
Posts: 55
Joined: 04 May 2025, 14:07

Re: How much luck is involved in TM?

Post by dessp7 »

Yes, I am happy to play any number of games as long as you’re willing to play turn-based. Send me an invite.
Deal, let me handle my premium membership, then we can start :)
ArchDevious
Posts: 69
Joined: 09 October 2023, 23:05

Re: How much luck is involved in TM?

Post by ArchDevious »

I want to see dess7p vs kulikk, that was the original idea. 20 games and tries to win 8+
Yahyra
Posts: 159
Joined: 06 January 2016, 03:33

Re: How much luck is involved in TM?

Post by Yahyra »

Corvus Mortis wrote: 06 May 2026, 03:30
FrankJones wrote: 05 May 2026, 23:57
Corvus Mortis wrote: 05 May 2026, 23:09

Yes, I am happy to play any number of games as long as you’re willing to play turn-based. Send me an invite.

The last time someone said this on this forum, we played 12 games and I won 9 of them. They were rated about the same as you. As Kulikk says, my win rate versus 600-rated opponents across all my games is ~70%. So I’d expect I would win closer to 2/3rds of our games as we play enough.
Was that the highly public battle of you versus the person who name had a chess piece in the name?

Anyway, My Elo peaked at 534 and currently is 479, I think. Let's assume I am a 500 Elo player. There is no way I am winning 50% against a 700-player let alone 800. If I could do that, I wouldn't be a 500 player, or the opponent wouldn't be a 700 or 800.
It was indeed!
That was, indeed, some hilarious posts by a hilarious player; many good laughs to be had all around about this.
FrankJones
Posts: 2441
Joined: 30 June 2024, 00:24

Re: How much luck is involved in TM?

Post by FrankJones »

This is somewhat on topic and somewhat off topic. But I figure it is relevant enough to post here.

I could use some advice. I tend to make a lot of mistakes when I play TFM. At my peak I reached 529. I have fallen to 463. I was recently at 513 and then lost 3 games in a row for minus 50 Elo. I am frustrated and annoyed with myself.

I'm wondering whether anyone has any thoughts on my most recently played game.

For reasons unclear to me, I play Terraforming Mars (and Wingspan) very poorly at times. I likely lose my focus, perhaps because I am sometimes trying to make moves in between doing other things (which is unfortunately unavoidable these days). I lose games I should be winning with my experience and game skills.

These mental lapses in judgment seem specific to those two games: Wingspan and Terraforming Mars. When I play my two best games, I play at a master level despite the interruptions and stress of multitasking.

So, I have two problems with Terraforming Mars: carelessness and lapses in judgment that are bizarre and inexplicable, and, even at my best, I seem to be a 500 Elo player.

If anyone is willing to take a look at my most recently completed game, I would appreciate any advice. There are the blatantly obvious errors (Arctic Algae, I have no explanation for that one, may have single-handedly cost me the game), but also the subtleties and nuances that I miss without realizing I am missing them.

Also, I credit my opponent for a well-played game. My opponent played 30 cards. I count 28 of them as "good" or "excellent" cards. The other two were "okay" or "mediocre", but certainly not on the level of Underground Detonations. That makes for a solid game, one where I can't really afford big mistakes or mental lapses. If I was playing carelessly expecting my opponent to make mistakes and play bad cards, that's a bad strategy in the first place, and in this case, it didn't happen. (AT least, not that I could see).

The table:

https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=847339879

I found the drafts frustrating. Difficult choices, often 0 or 2 good cards but rarely 1 or 3. And I made some horrible choices. I passed on a lot of cards I usually buy, thinking I tend to overdo it on card grabbing, only to end up wishing I had bought the cards. Cartel, Pets, Interplanetary Ship, for example. By the end I was just making nonsense inefficient plays trying to grab awards and salvage a game that had likely been lost long ago.

If anyone takes a look at the game, you have my full permission to be blunt and harsh in analysis.

(In relation to this thread topic, I do not think anyone would view this game replay and think I have any reasonable chance of beating a master-level player.)
User avatar
Kulikk
Posts: 74
Joined: 05 April 2024, 17:32

Re: How much luck is involved in TM?

Post by Kulikk »

I think you should consider playing with preludes. I barely feel comfortable giving advice on B+P so I can't really help you with base only (although I like base gameplay)
Post Reply

Return to “Terraforming Mars”