well, maybe then I am wrong. are you happy to play 100 games against me? (can be friendly so does not affect your ELOWell, I would bet that I'd win under 40. Anyway there is a noticable gap between corvus and me, then there is a gap between me and let's say you, and then there is a gap between you and some 500 elo guy. There is enough skill expression in the game to make a difference over a prolonged set of games.
How much luck is involved in TM?
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Re: How much luck is involved in TM?
- RicardoRix
- Posts: 2540
- Joined: 29 April 2012, 23:43
Re: How much luck is involved in TM?
If you're both equal skill, then you still have to play your best to get your 50% win rate. Normally sharpening your teeth against the best would be the best way to improve.
Overall, this statement does not make much sense to me.
- Corvus Mortis
- Posts: 59
- Joined: 16 May 2024, 18:30
Re: How much luck is involved in TM?
Yes, I am happy to play any number of games as long as you’re willing to play turn-based. Send me an invite.dessp7 wrote: ↑05 May 2026, 21:10well, maybe then I am wrong. are you happy to play 100 games against me? (can be friendly so does not affect your ELOWell, I would bet that I'd win under 40. Anyway there is a noticable gap between corvus and me, then there is a gap between me and let's say you, and then there is a gap between you and some 500 elo guy. There is enough skill expression in the game to make a difference over a prolonged set of games.)
The last time someone said this on this forum, we played 12 games and I won 9 of them. They were rated about the same as you. As Kulikk says, my win rate versus 600-rated opponents across all my games is ~70%. So I’d expect I would win closer to 2/3rds of our games as we play enough.
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FrankJones
- Posts: 2441
- Joined: 30 June 2024, 00:24
Re: How much luck is involved in TM?
Was that the highly public battle of you versus the person who name had a chess piece in the name?Corvus Mortis wrote: ↑05 May 2026, 23:09Yes, I am happy to play any number of games as long as you’re willing to play turn-based. Send me an invite.dessp7 wrote: ↑05 May 2026, 21:10well, maybe then I am wrong. are you happy to play 100 games against me? (can be friendly so does not affect your ELOWell, I would bet that I'd win under 40. Anyway there is a noticable gap between corvus and me, then there is a gap between me and let's say you, and then there is a gap between you and some 500 elo guy. There is enough skill expression in the game to make a difference over a prolonged set of games.)
The last time someone said this on this forum, we played 12 games and I won 9 of them. They were rated about the same as you. As Kulikk says, my win rate versus 600-rated opponents across all my games is ~70%. So I’d expect I would win closer to 2/3rds of our games as we play enough.
Anyway, My Elo peaked at 534 and currently is 479, I think. Let's assume I am a 500 Elo player. There is no way I am winning 50% against a 700-player let alone 800. If I could do that, I wouldn't be a 500 player, or the opponent wouldn't be a 700 or 800.
- Corvus Mortis
- Posts: 59
- Joined: 16 May 2024, 18:30
Re: How much luck is involved in TM?
It was indeed!FrankJones wrote: ↑05 May 2026, 23:57Was that the highly public battle of you versus the person who name had a chess piece in the name?Corvus Mortis wrote: ↑05 May 2026, 23:09Yes, I am happy to play any number of games as long as you’re willing to play turn-based. Send me an invite.
The last time someone said this on this forum, we played 12 games and I won 9 of them. They were rated about the same as you. As Kulikk says, my win rate versus 600-rated opponents across all my games is ~70%. So I’d expect I would win closer to 2/3rds of our games as we play enough.
Anyway, My Elo peaked at 534 and currently is 479, I think. Let's assume I am a 500 Elo player. There is no way I am winning 50% against a 700-player let alone 800. If I could do that, I wouldn't be a 500 player, or the opponent wouldn't be a 700 or 800.
Re: How much luck is involved in TM?
Deal, let me handle my premium membership, then we can startYes, I am happy to play any number of games as long as you’re willing to play turn-based. Send me an invite.
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ArchDevious
- Posts: 69
- Joined: 09 October 2023, 23:05
Re: How much luck is involved in TM?
I want to see dess7p vs kulikk, that was the original idea. 20 games and tries to win 8+
Re: How much luck is involved in TM?
That was, indeed, some hilarious posts by a hilarious player; many good laughs to be had all around about this.Corvus Mortis wrote: ↑06 May 2026, 03:30It was indeed!FrankJones wrote: ↑05 May 2026, 23:57Was that the highly public battle of you versus the person who name had a chess piece in the name?Corvus Mortis wrote: ↑05 May 2026, 23:09
Yes, I am happy to play any number of games as long as you’re willing to play turn-based. Send me an invite.
The last time someone said this on this forum, we played 12 games and I won 9 of them. They were rated about the same as you. As Kulikk says, my win rate versus 600-rated opponents across all my games is ~70%. So I’d expect I would win closer to 2/3rds of our games as we play enough.
Anyway, My Elo peaked at 534 and currently is 479, I think. Let's assume I am a 500 Elo player. There is no way I am winning 50% against a 700-player let alone 800. If I could do that, I wouldn't be a 500 player, or the opponent wouldn't be a 700 or 800.
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FrankJones
- Posts: 2441
- Joined: 30 June 2024, 00:24
Re: How much luck is involved in TM?
This is somewhat on topic and somewhat off topic. But I figure it is relevant enough to post here.
I could use some advice. I tend to make a lot of mistakes when I play TFM. At my peak I reached 529. I have fallen to 463. I was recently at 513 and then lost 3 games in a row for minus 50 Elo. I am frustrated and annoyed with myself.
I'm wondering whether anyone has any thoughts on my most recently played game.
For reasons unclear to me, I play Terraforming Mars (and Wingspan) very poorly at times. I likely lose my focus, perhaps because I am sometimes trying to make moves in between doing other things (which is unfortunately unavoidable these days). I lose games I should be winning with my experience and game skills.
These mental lapses in judgment seem specific to those two games: Wingspan and Terraforming Mars. When I play my two best games, I play at a master level despite the interruptions and stress of multitasking.
So, I have two problems with Terraforming Mars: carelessness and lapses in judgment that are bizarre and inexplicable, and, even at my best, I seem to be a 500 Elo player.
If anyone is willing to take a look at my most recently completed game, I would appreciate any advice. There are the blatantly obvious errors (Arctic Algae, I have no explanation for that one, may have single-handedly cost me the game), but also the subtleties and nuances that I miss without realizing I am missing them.
Also, I credit my opponent for a well-played game. My opponent played 30 cards. I count 28 of them as "good" or "excellent" cards. The other two were "okay" or "mediocre", but certainly not on the level of Underground Detonations. That makes for a solid game, one where I can't really afford big mistakes or mental lapses. If I was playing carelessly expecting my opponent to make mistakes and play bad cards, that's a bad strategy in the first place, and in this case, it didn't happen. (AT least, not that I could see).
The table:
https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=847339879
I found the drafts frustrating. Difficult choices, often 0 or 2 good cards but rarely 1 or 3. And I made some horrible choices. I passed on a lot of cards I usually buy, thinking I tend to overdo it on card grabbing, only to end up wishing I had bought the cards. Cartel, Pets, Interplanetary Ship, for example. By the end I was just making nonsense inefficient plays trying to grab awards and salvage a game that had likely been lost long ago.
If anyone takes a look at the game, you have my full permission to be blunt and harsh in analysis.
(In relation to this thread topic, I do not think anyone would view this game replay and think I have any reasonable chance of beating a master-level player.)
I could use some advice. I tend to make a lot of mistakes when I play TFM. At my peak I reached 529. I have fallen to 463. I was recently at 513 and then lost 3 games in a row for minus 50 Elo. I am frustrated and annoyed with myself.
I'm wondering whether anyone has any thoughts on my most recently played game.
For reasons unclear to me, I play Terraforming Mars (and Wingspan) very poorly at times. I likely lose my focus, perhaps because I am sometimes trying to make moves in between doing other things (which is unfortunately unavoidable these days). I lose games I should be winning with my experience and game skills.
These mental lapses in judgment seem specific to those two games: Wingspan and Terraforming Mars. When I play my two best games, I play at a master level despite the interruptions and stress of multitasking.
So, I have two problems with Terraforming Mars: carelessness and lapses in judgment that are bizarre and inexplicable, and, even at my best, I seem to be a 500 Elo player.
If anyone is willing to take a look at my most recently completed game, I would appreciate any advice. There are the blatantly obvious errors (Arctic Algae, I have no explanation for that one, may have single-handedly cost me the game), but also the subtleties and nuances that I miss without realizing I am missing them.
Also, I credit my opponent for a well-played game. My opponent played 30 cards. I count 28 of them as "good" or "excellent" cards. The other two were "okay" or "mediocre", but certainly not on the level of Underground Detonations. That makes for a solid game, one where I can't really afford big mistakes or mental lapses. If I was playing carelessly expecting my opponent to make mistakes and play bad cards, that's a bad strategy in the first place, and in this case, it didn't happen. (AT least, not that I could see).
The table:
https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=847339879
I found the drafts frustrating. Difficult choices, often 0 or 2 good cards but rarely 1 or 3. And I made some horrible choices. I passed on a lot of cards I usually buy, thinking I tend to overdo it on card grabbing, only to end up wishing I had bought the cards. Cartel, Pets, Interplanetary Ship, for example. By the end I was just making nonsense inefficient plays trying to grab awards and salvage a game that had likely been lost long ago.
If anyone takes a look at the game, you have my full permission to be blunt and harsh in analysis.
(In relation to this thread topic, I do not think anyone would view this game replay and think I have any reasonable chance of beating a master-level player.)
Re: How much luck is involved in TM?
I think you should consider playing with preludes. I barely feel comfortable giving advice on B+P so I can't really help you with base only (although I like base gameplay)