How much luck is involved in TM?

[Andrei3009]

Although I have also watched them, I believe that the tier lists can have a negative effect on the development of skills in the game and you need to be careful with them.

[teallite]

First of all, randomness in games is a very complex topic, that can't be reduced to simple ratings. But here are some arguments that can explain the numbers:
1. Amount of randomness in games doesn't always correlate with how influential this randomness is. There can be a lot of randomness in a game, but also a lot of luck mitigation options. Or a game can be very complex with huge decision space that dilutes randomness. In a trivial game a single random event can determine a winner. In a complex game a dozen random events will be mitigated, circumvented and outplayed. So, maybe these ratings show amount of randomness in TfM and 7W, but not its influence.
2. We usually consider only mechanical randomness in games, i.e., what's in the rules. But there are a lot of other random factors. If fact, every player increases randomness in a game. There a lot of TfM masters who play exclusively at 2p. Arena seasons in TfM started at 3p and now Arena is 2p. 7 Wonders, on the other hand, is mostly played with 3 or more players. Current Arena season, for example, is 5p. And Elo rating of top players in 7 Wonders Duel is considerably higher compared to 7 Wonders.
3. Low Elo players are a double edged sword. You can beat them consistently for small gains, but even in low luck games occasional defeat will erase all your progress and then some. There are some Elo hunters who specifically target very weak players for guaranteed wins, but this is not a normal behavior. So, if there are a lot of casual low level players in 7 Wonders that mix a lot with top players in games with high player count, it can be detrimental for their Elo ratings.

And now consider that player's experience is a also a factor of randomness. So, if TfM is a game with a lot of mechanical randomness and a lot of complexity, than it is less random for experienced players (who can navigate that complexity and mitigate luck) and more random for casual players. And 7 Wonders is a game with low randomness but also with low complexity. It is not so random for casual players, but also not less random for experienced players.

[ArchDevious]

well, in my opinion, if you take any 500 ELO+ player, this game will be based on luck like 80% ))
I am happy to play 100 games with someone to see the result. I assume it will be around 50/50

Well, jugdgin by corvus' stats or even mine that's not quite true

That website doesnt even have the current #1 arena player on there, so I question how up to date and accurate it is

[ArchDevious]

Well, I would bet that I'd win under 40. Anyway there is a noticable gap between corvus and me, then there is a gap between me and let's say you, and then there is a gap between you and some 500 elo guy. There is enough skill expression in the game to make a difference over a prolonged set of games.

well, maybe then I am wrong. are you happy to play 100 games against me? (can be friendly so does not affect your ELO )

Yes, I am happy to play any number of games as long as you’re willing to play turn-based. Send me an invite.

The last time someone said this on this forum, we played 12 games and I won 9 of them. They were rated about the same as you. As Kulikk says, my win rate versus 600-rated opponents across all my games is ~70%. So I’d expect I would win closer to 2/3rds of our games as we play enough.

To keep this thread spicy, but hopefully not enough to get banned, I'm very confident I can win more than 33% of my games against you, especially on Hellas or Amazonis Planitia

[Kulikk]

well, in my opinion, if you take any 500 ELO+ player, this game will be based on luck like 80% ))
I am happy to play 100 games with someone to see the result. I assume it will be around 50/50

Well, jugdgin by corvus' stats or even mine that's not quite true

That website doesnt even have the current #1 arena player on there, so I question how up to date and accurate it is

the last dataset update was like 4 days ago so it is very recent and even if it wasn't recent, it doesn't really change anything. And you can validate the data yourself, scrape the games of one random player from the list and compare whether it is accurate or not if you have doubts

[Corvus Mortis]

well, in my opinion, if you take any 500 ELO+ player, this game will be based on luck like 80% ))
I am happy to play 100 games with someone to see the result. I assume it will be around 50/50

Well, jugdgin by corvus' stats or even mine that's not quite true

That website doesnt even have the current #1 arena player on there, so I question how up to date and accurate it is

The current #1 Arena player was a mid-500s Elo player until very recently. If they keep up this Elo for a while, they will show up. MLE rankings are more stable than Elo and take longer to update. I assure you this is all 100% accurate and will regularly be updated.