Hidden luck bonus in the game algorithm

[Sanchez_137]

Update:
I invested in Premium subscription, and I noticed that the game started to give me very weak players quite often.

with THAT you might be onto something!
there might be a (more or less) coincidential connection between people investing in bga and are also decent at the game, in the lower end of the skill scale at least ... and vice versa - in general.
but that SHOULDNT matter much since 7wd is way more a skill game than a luck game, even vanilla, and arena rating works like elo (look up how that works and why it doesnt matter for your avg point gain (with some asterics here...))

[VladKha]

Thank you for your valuable comment, but my message was not about asking someone for analyzing my strategy in a particular game. I am trying to understand whether there is a hidden mechanism that would work in favor for premium/high-rating players or not. Besides, the described case (with the exact green card coming in the beggining of the second round) happend to me already 3 times today against three different players. So... Could you please write down your Personal Rating, Win Rate, total number of games, Arena Rating and the Type of Account (Normal/Premium) as in the message above?

please write down out of how many games people got THE EXACT right green in age 2 (assuming they started, had it on top and had only ONE science card built (?)) - for instance "in 3 out of 50 games that had that setup this happened" .....

Last day it happened 3 times in 19 games. For independent event it should be 1.71 times in 19 games, or 3 times in 33 games. I also haven't considered the number of times when opponent starts the game and the probability of an opponent having only 1 green card in the end of age 1. So the correct probability will be AxBxC, where A=probability of an opponent having only 1 green card in the end of age 1 (roughly 26% chance, statistically it may be lower because I assumed only distribution within 4 + 1 (no cards case) cards), B=probability of an opponent starting first the age 2 (lets say 50%), C=probability to have exactly one green card in the beginning of age 2 (9%).AxBxC=1.17% chance. I had it in 15.8% cases out of 19 games yesterday, and in 18% cases out of 11 games with JuliasiG and all of them happened in favor of my opponents with premium subscriptions.

Update.
15 games played in total against JuliasiG. The same thing happened again:
https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=927274484
3/15 is 20%, that is higher than 9% probability for independent event.

[kavookavala]

please write down out of how many games people got THE EXACT right green in age 2 (assuming they started, had it on top and had only ONE science card built (?)) - for instance "in 3 out of 50 games that had that setup this happened" .....

Last day it happened 3 times in 19 games. For independent event it should be 1.71 times in 19 games, or 3 times in 33 games. I also haven't considered the number of times when opponent starts the game and the probability of an opponent having only 1 green card in the end of age 1. So the correct probability will be AxBxC, where A=probability of an opponent having only 1 green card in the end of age 1 (roughly 26% chance, statistically it may be lower because I assumed only distribution within 4 + 1 (no cards case) cards), B=probability of an opponent starting first the age 2 (lets say 50%), C=probability to have exactly one green card in the beginning of age 2 (9%).AxBxC=1.17% chance. I had it in 15.8% cases out of 19 games yesterday, and in 18% cases out of 11 games with JuliasiG and all of them happened in favor of my opponents with premium subscriptions.

Update.
15 games played in total against JuliasiG. The same thing happened again:
https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=927274484
3/15 is 20%, that is higher than 9% probability for independent event.

You made a lot of bad decisions in that game and still almost won. Luck was clearly on your side.

[VladKha]

Last day it happened 3 times in 19 games. For independent event it should be 1.71 times in 19 games, or 3 times in 33 games. I also haven't considered the number of times when opponent starts the game and the probability of an opponent having only 1 green card in the end of age 1. So the correct probability will be AxBxC, where A=probability of an opponent having only 1 green card in the end of age 1 (roughly 26% chance, statistically it may be lower because I assumed only distribution within 4 + 1 (no cards case) cards), B=probability of an opponent starting first the age 2 (lets say 50%), C=probability to have exactly one green card in the beginning of age 2 (9%).AxBxC=1.17% chance. I had it in 15.8% cases out of 19 games yesterday, and in 18% cases out of 11 games with JuliasiG and all of them happened in favor of my opponents with premium subscriptions.

Update.
15 games played in total against JuliasiG. The same thing happened again:
https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=927274484
3/15 is 20%, that is higher than 9% probability for independent event.

You made a lot of bad decisions in that game and still almost won. Luck was clearly on your side.

Thank you very much for sharing your valuable opinion.

[silentProtest]

please write down out of how many games people got THE EXACT right green in age 2 (assuming they started, had it on top and had only ONE science card built (?)) - for instance "in 3 out of 50 games that had that setup this happened" .....

Last day it happened 3 times in 19 games. For independent event it should be 1.71 times in 19 games, or 3 times in 33 games. I also haven't considered the number of times when opponent starts the game and the probability of an opponent having only 1 green card in the end of age 1. So the correct probability will be AxBxC, where A=probability of an opponent having only 1 green card in the end of age 1 (roughly 26% chance, statistically it may be lower because I assumed only distribution within 4 + 1 (no cards case) cards), B=probability of an opponent starting first the age 2 (lets say 50%), C=probability to have exactly one green card in the beginning of age 2 (9%).AxBxC=1.17% chance. I had it in 15.8% cases out of 19 games yesterday, and in 18% cases out of 11 games with JuliasiG and all of them happened in favor of my opponents with premium subscriptions.

Update.
15 games played in total against JuliasiG. The same thing happened again:
https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=927274484
3/15 is 20%, that is higher than 9% probability for independent event.

Im calling BS. The first game after the one you posted doesnt fulfil the predefined states. https://boardgamearena.com/archive/repl ... s=92384516; - this is clown behaviour.

next time post with screenshots at the very least, since your words have to be rechecked.

[Sacha2142]

Im calling BS. The first game after the one you posted doesnt fulfil the predefined states. https://boardgamearena.com/archive/repl ... s=92384516; - this is clown behaviour.
[...]
next time post with screenshots at the very least, since your words have to be rechecked.

You'll probably be thanked for sharing your valuable opinion.

[Sanchez_137]

Im calling BS. The first game after the one you posted doesnt fulfil the predefined states. https://boardgamearena.com/archive/repl ... s=92384516; - this is clown behaviour.
[...]
next time post with screenshots at the very least, since your words have to be rechecked.

You'll probably be thanked for sharing your valuable opinion.

xDD
yeah, seems likely.
must be a nice world where fact and math do not matter, only opinions exist ....

[Sacha2142]

xDD
yeah, seems likely.
must be a nice world where fact and math do not matter, only opinions exist ....

There's always a few ones like this in games with some randomness involved, it's almost a running gag.
I used to play World of Tanks in another life, and man the forums were filled with people claiming that the game is rigged because they didn't win as much as they thought they deserved.

[VladKha]

Last day it happened 3 times in 19 games. For independent event it should be 1.71 times in 19 games, or 3 times in 33 games. I also haven't considered the number of times when opponent starts the game and the probability of an opponent having only 1 green card in the end of age 1. So the correct probability will be AxBxC, where A=probability of an opponent having only 1 green card in the end of age 1 (roughly 26% chance, statistically it may be lower because I assumed only distribution within 4 + 1 (no cards case) cards), B=probability of an opponent starting first the age 2 (lets say 50%), C=probability to have exactly one green card in the beginning of age 2 (9%).AxBxC=1.17% chance. I had it in 15.8% cases out of 19 games yesterday, and in 18% cases out of 11 games with JuliasiG and all of them happened in favor of my opponents with premium subscriptions.

Update.
15 games played in total against JuliasiG. The same thing happened again:
https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=927274484
3/15 is 20%, that is higher than 9% probability for independent event.

Im calling BS. The first game after the one you posted doesnt fulfil the predefined states. https://boardgamearena.com/archive/repl ... s=92384516; - this is clown behaviour.

next time post with screenshots at the very least, since your words have to be rechecked.

Frankly speaking, I find your way of communication rather toxic and not helpful/informative. As for the game you sent, I started the second era there, not JuliasiG, and that clearly did not work out in my favor, compared to the 3 times when she was in the same situation. 3/3 times is unrealistically lucky, as for me. That is why I believe there might be something else, like a hidden algorithm behind it. Perhaps, a pay-to-win function to keep permanent sponsors in the game.
So... I find it difficult to understand exactly what you wanted to show and prove by this. Nevertheless, I also attach the screenshots as you requested.

[silentProtest]

3 out of LESS than 15 - that is indeed lucky. since the expected probability is ~8,7% - but so few games do not prove anything (bc Variance).
and the thing you tried to proof is that julasiG specifically gets advantages (because he has premium).

that is why I would suggest that you go systemically through all games vs premium accounts, mark down that situation and whether the premium got his 1 science token or didnt. because you might have relevant games in the 100s and one could be sure it is not cherry picked.

because right now it looks like you got annoyed about that happening vs julasiG specifically, and searched for some reason (or conspiracy theory) that would explain that. It might have not been specifically cherry picked, but because of a perception bias at some point...
lets assume this situation was 3 out of 3. the chance for that is 0,087^3 which would be 0,066% likely to happen, which is 6,6 times likelier than 1 to 10000, which is bound to happen at some point. If those sentences didnt make sense to you, read up on stochastic where it can be explained with basic coin flips....

and no, I dont plan to be purely helpful. I will make fun of otherworldly, bizarre or very stupid stuff - you coming from russian internet should have even more understanding for that^^ [what I mean, is that having rough fun, with occasional use of harsh words, or just plain trolling is way more common there... in my experience at the very least!]