dice algorithm is clearly flawed

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Knibbeltje
Posts: 4
Joined: 07 September 2026, 22:05

Re: dice algorithm is clearly flawed

Post by Knibbeltje »

This game: https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=944675465

-Just one 6 in the last 30 turns
-Six 2's, but no 3's at all in 49 turns
- Ten(!) 11's

The game before that: https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=944658976

twenty turns without a 5, 6, 8 or 9

Honestly, I know nothing about statistics (so correct me if I'm wrong) but it seems to me this can occur sometimes, but i experience these statistically ridiculous sequences all the time. I can keep posting links to games..
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Jontia
Posts: 267
Joined: 06 March 2014, 22:59

Re: dice algorithm is clearly flawed

Post by Jontia »

Knibbeltje wrote: ↑08 November 2026, 14:42 This game: https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=944675465

-Just one 6 in the last 30 turns
-Six 2's, but no 3's at all in 49 turns
- Ten(!) 11's

The game before that: https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=944658976

twenty turns without a 5, 6, 8 or 9
These things are not even very unlikely.
1 six in 30 turns has a one in 18 chance.
Six 2's in about one in 500.
No 3's is about one in 17.

You're picking these after the fact too, so really that no threes is a Or condition of no 3's, no 11's or any other whacky thing.
The chances of any individual game having something 'odd' happening are actually really high as long as you don't specify what 'odd' means before you start looking.
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Simsat
Posts: 1
Joined: 20 June 2026, 08:17

Re: dice algorithm is clearly flawed

Post by Simsat »

Goforit22 wrote: ↑30 October 2026, 17:49 I completely agree with poster that a game of Catan can extremely frustrating due to biased dice. Its probably also true that the dice is random, but for many games the dice is still the deciding factor.

I dont get why BGA havent implemented a card deck dice generator. Imagine dice determined by a number of card decks, number of dice sets determined by their probability. When the deck(s) is depleted, it start over. Will still be randaom, but much closer to a normal distribution for every game. Will put strategy in the high seat, not lucky dice.

It will take 10minutes for a AI to write code, max. I can provide it :-)
But there is the variant for using a dice deck. Why dont you use it?
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euklid314
Posts: 718
Joined: 06 April 2020, 22:56

Re: dice algorithm is clearly flawed

Post by euklid314 »

Knibbeltje wrote: ↑08 November 2026, 14:42 This game: https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=944675465

-Just one 6 in the last 30 turns
-Six 2's, but no 3's at all in 49 turns
- Ten(!) 11's

The game before that: https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=944658976

twenty turns without a 5, 6, 8 or 9

Honestly, I know nothing about statistics (so correct me if I'm wrong) but it seems to me this can occur sometimes, but i experience these statistically ridiculous sequences all the time. I can keep posting links to games..
Because you state that you do not know a lot about statistics I will briefly explain:
When rolling 2 regular dice the probability of sum 2 is 1/36, sum 3 is 2/36,..., sum 6 is 5/36, sum 7 is 6/36, sum 8 is 5/36, ... sum 12 is 1 /36.

That is, the expected value for 36 consecutive rolls is 1 2s, 2 3s, 3 4s, 4 5s, 5 6s, 6 7s, 5 8s, 4 9s, 3 10s, 2 11s, 1 12s.

But the expected value does not mean that this outcome is likely. Quite on the contrary! If you roll 36 times the above result will "never" happen. It is as unlikely as winning in (several) lotteries.

The reason is that all these dice rolls are independent of each other. If you roll two 8s in the first 5 rolls then the dice do NOT give you less 8s in the upcoming rolls to even out what has happened in the past.

Thus, for such a short sequence of 36 rolls, it will almost always happen that one number is hugely overrepresented and other numbers are hugely underrepresented. But since you cannot predict in advance which numbers that will be and since it will not always be the same numbers, the process is still perfectly random.

Just try it out with some ordinary dice at home. Roll them 36 times and note the results. Then roll them another 36 times. And a third time. It is extremely likely that you will get several extreme results. And even after 3x36=108 rolls some numbers will definitely be hugely overrepresented. That is just a normal behavior with random, independent dice.
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