Proof That Bga Dice Aren’t Random

[ChiefPointThief]

Just looking at the Elo distribution of a game would give a much more accurate estimate of what the luck factor is.

Spades has more luck than captain flip?

[ChiefPointThief]

It's just when there are only 4 levels (I think), there isn't much room. 1 would be Go, Quoridor, etc., 3 might be a lot of games with dice and/or cards that are lighter on strategy, 4 would be Martian Dice. But there's be a big range within the levels with so much variety around. Where to draw the lines being a bit subjective.

It is true that games are set to 3 by default so some games have 3 ratings if the dev didn’t bother to assign ratings. & you can argue that this game that has
a 2 should be a 1 etc

But when you get to the Martian dice of the world typically there isn’t much debate if these are level 4 luck which was my point.

Also it does go up to 5 but not many games have a 5 luck rating.

[tbhp]

Spades has more luck than captain flip?

I don't know, but then you have to wonder why the Elo doesn't go as high.

[ChiefPointThief]

Luck ratings seem weirdly assigned in many cases.

For example, games where your success depends on making the same choices as the other players should have much higher luck factors, because if you end up in a game where everyone makes weird choices, you can end up losing through no fault of your own, which is something impossible to predict.

Then there are games that contain random elements that seem to be given high luck factors for that reason, even though they involve more skill and offer more control over the outcome than certain games where there's not as many random elements.

Basically it seems the people who decide the ratings just look at how much randomness there is in a game, without applying any critical thinking as to how this actually affects the luck factor.

Just looking at the Elo distribution of a game would give a much more accurate estimate of what the luck factor is.

Can you give examples?

[tbhp]

Can you give examples?

Stella is an example of the former, and is how I realized those types of games have flawed luck ratings.

For the latter, you gave an example yourself. I see Captain Flip has a 4 luck rating, but its Elos are not all particularly low, so that seems wrong. On what basis should a game like that be so high?

[lefalaf]

Given there are 5's some of those other ratings aren't so off then. I see 0's on Texas Bingo and TTR Maps, but they are 0 for all 4 attributes, so seems a bad data thing and not that 0 is a real rating. I've seen a couple where the dev/rater was confused and reversed the scale. (1 for high luck) At least one is a BGA admin (didn't look deeper at the others), so that's puzzling, momentary brain fart I guess and no one double checking that.

Back to the original topic. I like the 3 you already mention in the group: Can't Stop, Lucky Numbers, Super Mega Lucky Box.

I had to drop a bunch of ideas that were clearly 4 or 5 which had (presumably) default 3's. Some other ideas for good ones, IMO:

5
Martian Dice
Piraten Kapern
Golf (Play Nine looks nicer, but is only a default 3)
Farkle
- there was another Martian Dice/Dalek Dice variant, but I'm having trouble remembering the name and cannot find it in the list

4
King Domino
Pina Coladice
Pixies
Incan Gold
Cardiceo
Dice Forge
Pickomino
Roll'n Bump
Dice Mission
Diceathlon
Dicy Cards
The Mother Road (similar to Can't Stop, ugly board, but great game)
Geek Out Masters
Dice Summoners
Mega Jackpot

[ChiefPointThief]

Most people don’t even know mother road exist. It is interesting that can’t stop has 20million games played while mother road only has 7000 total.

Go ahead and list games you consider that are ranked 3s. Because I just checked flip 7 & that is ranked 3 (disagree). That is clearly a game that fits this topic. The king making aspect alone makes flip 7 a 4.

Dice forge, kingdomino, pixies 4? Oh wow!
Yeah there’s a lot of off ratings lol
Luck ratings change drastically in kingdomino from 4p - 2p.

[Jellby]

Part of the problem is that different people (or the same person in different context) will give different meaning to a rating simply called "Luck". Is it how much the final result is simply a coin flip regardless of what you do? Is it how many random events are there during a game? Something else?

Correlation between highest elo and "luck" is just one of the possible interpretations of "luck". Also, a seemingly strategic but simple enough to be solved game such as Quantik becomes pure luck once you get good enough: it all depends on whether you get to play 1st or 2nd. But to get there you need to know the strategy, and it's a perfect information game. So is it Luck 5 or Luck 0?

[lefalaf]

Part of the problem is that different people (or the same person in different context) will give different meaning to a rating simply called "Luck". Is it how much the final result is simply a coin flip regardless of what you do? Is it how many random events are there during a game? Something else?

Correlation between highest elo and "luck" is just one of the possible interpretations of "luck". Also, a seemingly strategic but simple enough to be solved game such as Quantik becomes pure luck once you get good enough: it all depends on whether you get to play 1st or 2nd. But to get there you need to know the strategy, and it's a perfect information game. So is it Luck 5 or Luck 0?

If it's the result of solving or both/all players being the same elite level, I wouldn't call that luck. In your example, that just sounds like a game with possible first player advantage, given perfect play.

[Jellby]

Now suppose the strategy is so simple that even a newbie can work it out, like tic-tac-toe but with guaranteed win instead of tie. We would see very low top elo, even if it's a supposedly no-luck game, right?