Why did I lose this game? What steps did I do wrong?

[Fromper]

I'm not saying the northern shoveler is a great card. It's one of the worst cards that gives you extra card draw. But it does give you extra card draw, which is the single most important thing at the start of the game. The more cards you draw, the more likely you are to find good ones.

[JohnRM]

But it does give you extra card draw, which is the single most important thing at the start of the game. The more cards you draw, the more likely you are to find good ones.

It also give your opponent a card draw without them having to spend a turn drawing. If the card is good, you gave them a free turn basically. So all things being equal, it benefits them more.

When using the shoveler power you need to make sure you benefit more than your opponent, like if you have a tuck and lay and they don't or having +1 cards allows you to tuck and draw the remainder of the game. At the start of the game, you typically don't have enough information.

[FrankJones]

And the food cost. It's just brutal. Wilson's snipe is 5 points for ONE food. Northern Shoveler is 7 points for 3 food. I don't understand why two birds that do the exact same thing have such wildly different cost-to-points ratios. And yes, I realize the Northern shoveler has a larger nest for eggs. Big Whoop.

[Archisian]

AND THEN YOU CONCEDED ?????????

WHY ???? Maybe your opponent had bad bonus cards. You're about to play the Painted bunting, which could give you a big bonus card, then lay eggs twice for big points and then play the Hermit thrush.

And you have one more turn remaining !!!!!

Look man, I don't know you, but maybe you try finishing your games instead of conceding close games ???

I just spent over an HOUR analyzing your game only to have you suddenly QUIT with 4 turns left???????

I am agitated beyond belief. This will be the last game of yours I ever waste my time analyzing again.

I appreciate the analysis. It was very in-depth and I thank you for giving your opinion on the cards.

However, once he had the Whooping Crane, I knew it was over. The reason being was that he had points advantage, another drop for yet another bonus card, the Blue-winged Warbler for extra damage if needed, and was going to win the end-of-round goal anyway. The star nests were too much to overcome. I went back on the replay and calculated the end game points. No bonus card from the Painted Bounting would have given me the points needed to overcome the situation. The best I could have gotten was either 3 or 4 points (like from the the Wild food bonus, number of birds in a habitat, or the Geography bonus). So, maybe 10 pts at best for 3 bonus cards. He already had 7 pts due to the star nests (bowl shaped nest, 4 pts) and the fruit (3 pts). If he drew another bonus card that gave a bonus based on nest type, it was assuredly over. I would have lost no matter what. While the score could have possibly been close, it really didn't matter. He had too many points to overcome. What I was confused on was where I went wrong on my play, or blundered as you put it.

Now, you could say that I didn't know that for sure and I shouldn't have conceded. But the statistical odds of that happening were slim. I think even you know that. But I know your position on conceding in games, so I understand why you would say this.

[Archisian]

Yeah, I never like spotting an opponent 3 (or even 4) points but the first round is the one where it's most tolerable, or rather, sometimes you have to work so hard to avoid it that it's not worth it. Two forest birds is plenty and if an opponent is going to go for three, it's so unlikely I have a setup where it's sensible to match. So I think it's a reasonable to one to say "I'll play one or two depending on what works for me" — in the beginning, setting yourself up is more important.

Right. In most games, I worry so much about not getting into an early hole, that trying to prevent that often costs me games. I knew in this one, it was a potential sacrifice. But I wanted the forest birds because I had them in my hand and didn't want to rely on blind draws.

But seeing what you and some other people have said, that was probably the better option.

[FrankJones]

Now, you could say that I didn't know that for sure and I shouldn't have conceded. But the statistical odds of that happening were slim. I think even you know that. But I know your position on conceding in games, so I understand why you would say this.

My position on conceding games was in relation to conceding at the end of an already-decided game when it would barely take any time to just finish and allow the end-game stats and scoring to be logged.

If my opponent wants to concede a game in which I could still lose, hey, go ahead. Even if there is a 1% chance, why throw away that 1 win out of 100?