Hidden luck bonus in the game algorithm

[Romain672]

(removed, was wrong)

[silentProtest]

That ~8.7% come from a single spot.
In the three screenshots, you can have the specific card in the left or the right spot which close to double the probability (2/23+21/23*2/22).

And so there is 17.0% chance to get a specific card of your choice in any of the lowest position at the start of age 2.
So you expect it more than 1 game out of 6.

what ?? why ??
1/23 in first spot. 1/22 in second spot ...makes 1-(22/23*21/22)=>8.7%

why is there a "+" in there ??
please deconstruct (2/23+21/23*2/22) for me...

[Romain672]

Yeah sorry I was wrong it's just 2/23. I don't know why I added a 2 there.

[siGlle]

Why are you only focusing on the theology token. It is not the God of this game.
Look at that game : https://boardgamearena.com/archive/repl ... s=94385687

you had all the theology/extra turns that you wanted but still lost...
How about the fact that you were the first player in your games agains juliasig 9 times out of 15. Maybe BGA is trying to help you there.

When you realize that this game is not only about Theology or (biased) Luck and more about strategy maybe you'll stop blaming your losses on Premium/nonPremium accounts.

[silentProtest]

Why are you only focusing on the theology token. It is not the God of this game.
Look at that game : https://boardgamearena.com/archive/repl ... s=94385687

you had all the theology/extra turns that you wanted but still lost...
How about the fact that you were the first player in your games agains juliasig 9 times out of 15. Maybe BGA is trying to help you there.

When you realize that this game is not only about Theology or (biased) Luck and more about strategy maybe you'll stop blaming your losses on Premium/nonPremium accounts.

I mean it was a won game, even if he doesnt rush to theology - the whole thing is just comically bad played .... even after he wasted 2 wonders for theology he should have won it - just dont let him get wood and get some glass or paper and its done ....

[Amirreza10]

Someone asked me this, and I will ask it here: Why the ratio of premium players to standard accounts in the first 100 players, is much higher than the general ratio of premium accounts to standard accounts?

[Silene]

Someone asked me this, and I will ask it here: Why the ratio of premium players to standard accounts in the first 100 players, is much higher than the general ratio of premium accounts to standard accounts?

Probably a mix of these:

• very active players are more likely to get a premium subscription
• very competitive players are more likely to get a premium subscription
• premium subscribers have more practicing opportunities and through that might get stronger more quickly
• non premium users might get tired of waiting for a game and might opt for playing other games and don't focus as much on one particular game to be able to get into the top slots
• new players often do not have a premium subscription but might decide to get one after playing for a while and falling in love with one game and getting good at that. it is probably less likely the other way around.

Also I am curious to find out where one can see the general ratio of premium accounts to standard accounts. Where did you find it and what is it exactly?

[Amirreza10]

Someone asked me this, and I will ask it here: Why the ratio of premium players to standard accounts in the first 100 players, is much higher than the general ratio of premium accounts to standard accounts?

Probably a mix of these:

• very active players are more likely to get a premium subscription
• very competitive players are more likely to get a premium subscription
• premium subscribers have more practicing opportunities and through that might get stronger more quickly
• non premium users might get tired of waiting for a game and might opt for playing other games and don't focus as much on one particular game to be able to get into the top slots
• new players often do not have a premium subscription but might decide to get one after playing for a while and falling in love with one game and getting good at that. it is probably less likely the other way around.

Also I am curious to find out where one can see the general ratio of premium accounts to standard accounts. Where did you find it and what is it exactly?

Thank you for your response. Regarding your question, no data has ever been published ( or I couldn't find any) on the ratio. But by extrapolating data from other websites (usually up to 5%) and the active player count of around 10 million, you can deduce that a 60% premium-to-standard player ratio is unlikely in general.
About your answers, though: Your answers are all based on the argument that better players are more likely to be premium. Again, given that 40% of players are up there and they are up there while still being standard, it shows that we have many, many more good players ( maybe not the best, but there is no way to prove that) among standard players.
SOOO, the question is still valid: What can explain the big difference in ratio in the top 100? And it is not only about this game. Do you think your answers can explain difference between 5% and 60%?

[silentProtest]

Someone asked me this, and I will ask it here: Why the ratio of premium players to standard accounts in the first 100 players, is much higher than the general ratio of premium accounts to standard accounts?

Probably a mix of these:

• very active players are more likely to get a premium subscription
• very competitive players are more likely to get a premium subscription
• premium subscribers have more practicing opportunities and through that might get stronger more quickly
• non premium users might get tired of waiting for a game and might opt for playing other games and don't focus as much on one particular game to be able to get into the top slots
• new players often do not have a premium subscription but might decide to get one after playing for a while and falling in love with one game and getting good at that. it is probably less likely the other way around.

Also I am curious to find out where one can see the general ratio of premium accounts to standard accounts. Where did you find it and what is it exactly?

Thank you for your response. Regarding your question, no data has ever been published ( or I couldn't find any) on the ratio. But by extrapolating data from other websites (usually up to 5%) and the active player count of around 10 million, you can deduce that a 60% premium-to-standard player ratio is unlikely in general.
About your answers, though: Your answers are all based on the argument that better players are more likely to be premium. Again, given that 40% of players are up there and they are up there while still being standard, it shows that we have many, many more good players ( maybe not the best, but there is no way to prove that) among standard players.
SOOO, the question is still valid: What can explain the big difference in ratio in the top 100? And it is not only about this game. Do you think your answers can explain difference between 5% and 60%?

it can explain that easily Id say - and got an addition:
BGA fcked up their "elo" system ("elo", because its not really elo anymore...) - you get less elo after consecutive wins since I think 2 years now, up until getting 0%. that changes whole risk calculation if you aim to get elo. so you either stop playing against someone after 2 consecutive wins and wait for new arena season (bcs that stupid thing restes each new season) or accept you will get less and less elo with the same loss when you lose at some point. .. this favours playing lots of different players, and premium players have access to anyone in 7wd and standard players have only access to premium players, which leads to some fun effects in 1v1 games specifically... :\

[Amirreza10]

Probably a mix of these:

• very active players are more likely to get a premium subscription
• very competitive players are more likely to get a premium subscription
• premium subscribers have more practicing opportunities and through that might get stronger more quickly
• non premium users might get tired of waiting for a game and might opt for playing other games and don't focus as much on one particular game to be able to get into the top slots
• new players often do not have a premium subscription but might decide to get one after playing for a while and falling in love with one game and getting good at that. it is probably less likely the other way around.

Also I am curious to find out where one can see the general ratio of premium accounts to standard accounts. Where did you find it and what is it exactly?

Thank you for your response. Regarding your question, no data has ever been published ( or I couldn't find any) on the ratio. But by extrapolating data from other websites (usually up to 5%) and the active player count of around 10 million, you can deduce that a 60% premium-to-standard player ratio is unlikely in general.
About your answers, though: Your answers are all based on the argument that better players are more likely to be premium. Again, given that 40% of players are up there and they are up there while still being standard, it shows that we have many, many more good players ( maybe not the best, but there is no way to prove that) among standard players.
SOOO, the question is still valid: What can explain the big difference in ratio in the top 100? And it is not only about this game. Do you think your answers can explain difference between 5% and 60%?

it can explain that easily Id say - and got an addition:
BGA fcked up their "elo" system ("elo", because its not really elo anymore...) - you get less elo after consecutive wins since I think 2 years now, up until getting 0%. that changes whole risk calculation if you aim to get elo. so you either stop playing against someone after 2 consecutive wins and wait for new arena season (bcs that stupid thing restes each new season) or accept you will get less and less elo with the same loss when you lose at some point. .. this favours playing lots of different players, and premium players have access to anyone in 7wd and standard players have only access to premium players, which leads to some fun effects in 1v1 games specifically... :\

But you can not choose who you are playing against, so I really do not see a way for the effect that you are talking about to play a role.
I am not a judge here, and I just asked the question! If you think it can explain the gap, then good! )